Yemen’s self-declared President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi gave comments on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, saying that he only sees a military solution to the ongoing Yemen War, envisioning Saudi Arabia eventually winning.
Hadi claimed that he’s been extending his hand to the Shi’ites for peace talks, but being refused, which is the exact opposite of every report on the Yemen peace process. Indeed, at times the Saudis were said to be openly pushing Hadi to accept a power-sharing deal, something he refused.
Hadi was “elected” in early 2012 to a two-year term, in a single-candidate, UN-backed election. He unilaterally extended his term in office until he was chased out of the country in 2015, at which point Saudi Arabia invaded to try to reinstall him.
The Houthis have been open to deals that result in free elections in Yemen, though Hadi has been vigorously resisting that, apparently aware he’s unlikely to win a national election if anyone else is on the ballot.
Hadi’s future is increasingly less certain, despite Saudi eagerness in continuing the war. Hadi has lost many internal political allies, and his government rests on support of Muslim Brotherhood-linked factions likely to put him immediately at odds with the Saudis if and when the war ever actually ends.
Quite an open air (target) celebration the Houthis had very recently. Imagine having almost all of them in one spot and missing a bombardment opportunity. Something’s up.
You are right. The moment Saudi royal elites closed circle and advised the King to replace criwn prince Mohammed Bin Najaf, with his son Mohammed Bin Salman — Saudi Arwbia’s future has changed trajectory. MbS will gradually change approach to war in Yemen. It will not be easy, in light of the internal conflicts of interest. But the Qatar crisis has been diffused — even though the noise continues. Egypt brokered the deal whereby the hard conditions have been turned into “principles”.
Now, the bickering will continue, but it seems to be at US expense. US is trying to get them back on track, to have a Sunni alliance against Iran. But the bickering appears to just go on, leisurely, no rush. US has a problem now — much bigger problem then bickering royals. Kuwait with 40% of Shia population is in no position to antagonize Iran or Iraq. UAE has bigger business with Iran then Qatar, and has no intention on missing out on the major Chinese infrastructure connecting Central Asia throughr Iran to Turkey. From Turkey, Eurasian front is poised to tackle Balkans, a diverse region by far more Eurasian then European culturally. China already is deeply involved in Hungary, Serbia and Greece. Russia is involved economically and militarily. In Hungary, building additional blocks of nuclear power plant. Russia and Turkey plan for Turkish Stream gas pipeline is
more extensive then it appears. There are existing connections to Azerbaijan, and future plans for transit of Mediterranian new gas fields, Iraq, Iran and Qatar.
War in Yemen is part of the bigger picture, bigger settlrment. It is clear that former South Yemen will become independent, and the only real issue is the appropriate management of the North Yemen. Hadi’s positions are irrelevant, as he has no choice but to continue the position of his sponsors — position that Shia North Yemen must be crushed. If Shia North cannot be governed by Sunni South, then the plan was to be destroyed and marginalized and jnder a suitable Hadi.
But that was in an entirely different era. Era of MbN. Era, when nrocones happily claimed that the King is demented, with Alzheimers. And presumably should abdicate in favor of their favorite. But now, MbN has been releived of all duties and and the new Crown Prince has not been trained by FBI — heck, he never left the country to study abroad! Suddenly, King no longer seems demented, and is travelling to Russia in October. Syrian settlement is at hand.
In light of changes, dangerous times are abead. Losers will try to undermine Kingdom, and the repercusions can be grave.