Following up on al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front disavowing the Astana deal on creating de-escalation zones, Russian officials are reporting a massive battle on the outskirts of Syria’s Idlib Province. They are reporting Nusra launched an attempted offensive against Syrian military targets.
This involved, per Russia’s report, Nusra fighters trying to capture a Russian military police unit responsible for monitoring the Idlib ceasefire, and several hours of major battles. At the end of 24 hours, Russia estimated 850 Nusra fighters were killed.
Which is a massively large figure for a single 24-hour period within a single province in Syria. If true, this would likely amount to the elimination of a substantial chunk of the Nusra Front’s fighting force, though of course there are not solid numbers on the size of them, like most rebel forces.
Russia reported three of its special forces wounded in the course of the operation, but no fatalities. They provided no indication what casualties the Syrian military sustained, though given the sheer scale of what happened it would be unlikely Syria didn’t sustain some casualties.
Well unless this is followed by a major overrunning of Nusra holdings in the local area the numbers must be seen as highly questionable and might be looked upon as Russia making a deposit into it’s own bravado account.
Russia does not do bravado. Al-Nusra is
still supported — by someone — and US and allies are either very incompetent in plugging the sources of Al-Nusra financing and arms supply, or are OK by it. Russia is not telling — although I doubt very much that they do not know.
It is really curious that it is ENDLESSLY repeated how Al-Nusra has the issue with Astana. That would be same as saying how ISIS objects to Astana plan. Who cares? Who wants to give Al-Nusra legitimacy by examinig their position on this issue or any other. SOMEBODY is determined to guve Al-Nusra a place at Idlib table, even though as a UN and US banned terrorist organization they can only surrender or be defeated.
Both ISIS and Al-Nusra organizations are internationally funded and armed terrorists. They did recruit local militia, Islamist, or secular-criminal groups. But that was in the hey day of Damascus losing territory to terrorists.
Why then all the concern about Al-Nusra objecting. What happened is not a surprise. While Turkey, Russia and Iran are putting together forces to first surround Idlib with check-points and observer stations, followed by assisting groups that signed Astana, defeat Al-Nusra. Thise groups are reluctant — I am sure they know whose hand is behind Al-Nusra. But Al-Nusra us not shy about taking their territory and resiurces. As this is looming, Al-Nusra tried their luck with one of the Russian checkpoints. They will try more, particularly against Russia — reflecting the fury of their patrons.
But what is remarkable about this process is that for the first time a trully regional solution to a conflict is being forged. There are no European minders and their pompous presiding over all issues on planet earth. It is really too bad that US inherited European imperial bug, as the American experience could have impacted global affairs in an entirely different way. But the European bug was very early implanted in American foreign affairs. Founding fathers warnings are considered quaint and old school. Yet, they have never been more relevant then today. US has good reasons for supporting Astana, and cure itself from European complex.