Few nations have had steadily better relations with President Trump than Egypt’s military junta. Trump has been very close with Egypt’s ruler Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, and declared himself to “strongly back” Sisi‘s continued leadership.
Recent cuts to Egypt’s massive annual US military aid payments, then, come as something of a surprise. US officials have cited “human rights concerns,” but those aren’t exactly new in Egypt, and never bothered the administration before now.
Rather, the speculation is that the aid cuts center heavily on Egypt’s military having limited ties to North Korea’s military. America’s increasing interest in isolating North Korea has become to top priority, and this time it hit Egypt.
While Egypt’s junta has long expected US aid as an annual payment irrespective of policy moves, this is almost certain to lead to Egypt ending its North Korea ties, a move much more likely to placate the US than any human rights reforms ever could.
North Korea ties are just an excuse for this reaction. There are a number of factors — in fact, a lots of them. The reason for coming down on Egypt is a combunation of factors. I do not think that Trump’s instinct to bring Egypt closer to US is wrong. After all, Saudi Arabia has a special place in our financial and energy interests, but is a country run by inherited monarchy without snybpopular mandate, many of its resisents are not citizens, a large percent of military forces are foreign mercenaries, and together with all GCC countries, has a rather small number of population. Comparing them with populous Arab and Sunni Egypt, it is clear that this prize needs to be won, before any advances on Iran are contemplated. But Egypt needs to be first brought in line, its independent and rouge tendencies squashed — cleaned up to our liking. Trump eill never be averse to a little bit of shake up, but keep that Indian Treaty benefits close up to their nose. So, what are the pot holes on the way to ideal relationship. There are many, and multiplying.
Whenever a hearthbreaking human rights stories show up in droves, one can tell that the victim was marked.
The key objections.
Israel.
Egypt has been conducting consultations with Palestinian Authority and Hamas into which Israel is not included. Egypt intervened to ship fuel for Gaza power plants, as Israel cut supplies to support only 3 hours a day worth of electricity. Unlike the attack on Turkish ships taking supplies to this open air concentration camp — Egypt is too important and public support for leadership not in question, so it went without a violent reaction. But Israel does not like the precedent. Only Israel can control all the inflow of goods to the city.
Libya
Egypt has an independent policy on Libya. It is aiming at preventing militant islamic groups encamping clise to their borders, and has attacked them using any justification. The bulls eye for Al -Sissi politics was attack on islamic militants in Libya after terrorist act against Coptic christians. A country divided in many ways, was united in cheering the destruction if Islamic militants to revenge killing of Egyptian Christians. It was so popular, that Al-Sissi bombed Libyan militants two more times. But invreality, Egypt knows that such groups are financed and armed by somebody to put pressure on Egypt. For that reason, it supports General Heftar. He may be an American asset, or independent — it is if no concern to Egypt. What is needed is some authority capable of controling borders and its territory. For as long as free lance groups roam, nobody is safe.
Russia
Egyptian and Russian bilateral cooperation is growing. Nuclear power power plant deal, military deals, cooperation in Syria
Iran
Good relationship with Iran
Qatar
Targetting fake Muslim Brotherhod ensconced in Qatar, a globalist project designed to poke at monarchies and Egypt alike. Al-Jazera has since the abdicatiin of old Al-Tani turned into neocon vehicle, not an independent media it once was. In fact, due to neicon management the reporting on Syria was so false, that snventire Al -Jazera burea in Beirut resigned over it. Al-Thani was forced to resign after US syood by Saudi Arabia against Morsi and Brotherhood. It was a major defeat of the founder of modern Qatar, its sovereign wealth fund, Al -Jazeera and the idea of constitutional monarchies, with a stable voter base. It was a decision that made Morsi a target of a massive Saudi campaign in Egypt, mobilizing millions of poor Salafis, as Ssudi charities during Mubarak regime fed poor population with food and Wahhabism. But in mellow agricultural Egypt it did not cause major damage. As military brought Morsi to power, they were in danger if having to go against poor masses that accussed Morsi of not being good Moslem. Military asked Mirsi to step down and return power back to Military. But he did not –thinking that being elected was going to protect him. But when massed of Salsfis poured into Cairo, Saudi Arabia and US win. Military prevented civil war by coming down hard in Brotherhood, but appeasing Salafis who went home. Saudi Arabia opened purse to deal with Egypt’s financial crisis. But Al-Sissi learned a lesson, and with all speed connected with Russia and China. He moved the national mood away from Tahrir Square, Brotherhood vs. Salafis, and liberal NGO plastic candidates — to more Nasser like nationalism transcending religion and party miopia. But over time, in spite of Egypt’s deferential attitude tiwards
Saudi Arabia — the relationship went downhill. Egypt pulled out of coalition against Yemen. Saudi Arabia punished Egypt by stopping the delivery of already paid for oil. The day old Emir of Qatar died, his son reverted to anti-Saudi push back. It was the previous crown prince Al -Najaf that fell into the trap, encouraged by Trump’s sword dance. The most obnoxious pressure on Qatar was mounted — that Saudi Arabia was destined to lose. The court coup in Riyadh was the result of crisis if confidence in USvfriend Al-Najaf. Saudi Arabia realized that it had no friends. The much maligned Egypt was there to bring its weight, and demonstrate Saydi weakness. Kuwait with 40% of Shia population, Bahrain 85%, UAE with hugh Iran trade, Oman with solid relationship with Iran — where exactly us the anti-Iranian force to come from? Egypt now has the luxury to demand the end of Brotherhood — fake brotherhood of Al-Qaradawi, as well as the neocon management of Al -Jazeera that takes shots at anything neocon globalist universe does not like. Qatar always had an insurance policy in Turkey. Now, Turkey-Russia-Iran deal over Syria is moving Qatar in that direction, notwithstanding its shared gas field with Iran.
In spite of rummored King’s bad health and presumed Alzheimers, he is travelling to Moscow. The new crownprince did it already three times. The sale of Aramco’s 5% is big money, and plenty of competition. But demands for transparency might be obstacle, and Saudi Arabia could do private sale to China. In the dizzying areay of chamges, US is to tackle Egypt. Iver Notrh Korea. Yeah. But this time Salafis will not be coming to Cairo. And even if some do, they will mert the fate of Brotherhood. And nobody in Egypt will care. Revolution has exausted itself.