Among several new types of sanctions against North Korea being pushed by the US is a full-scale oil blockade. Such a blockade would necessarily have to run through China, with its oil pipeline into North Korea. But the idea puts China in a tough position.
China’s President Xi Jinping has been keen to show himself to be cooperating on North Korea, despite US officials often blaming them for the lack of progress. On the other hand, giving in to increasing US demands without getting anything in return would be very unpopular.
Xi’s strategy initially was to support US sanctions efforts in hopes it would also get the US to accept his diplomatic efforts. Not only has this not happened, but the Trump Administration has grown increasingly publicly hostile to diplomacy in general.
So now when the US comes along looking to get an oil embargo, Xi is faced with either looking suddenly uncooperative, or looking like he’s letting the US walk all over him by letting them continue to spurn diplomacy in favor of more sanctions.
It is not really a tough position for China. They said, “No.”
They said they “would not permit” the instability on the Peninsula.
It is the US that has put itself in a tough spot, because its bluff has been called.
Should China act against their interests, doing what the US dictates without the US doing anything that the Chinese want? No, and I really doubt the Chinese will be stupid enough to fall for that. Trump’s anti-diplomacy foreign policy is putting us in an adversarial relationship with most of the world, while unifying the world against N Korea would be quite easy – with just a little compromise. But that price is just too high, our official vision is too tunnel-focused.
China should tell the US to pound it.