Citing a continued military buildup along their frontier in northern Syria, the Kurdish YPG’s leadership says they believe an attack by Turkey, leading to open warfare, is imminent, and will likely begin “within days.”
Turkey and the YPG are hostile toward one another, with Turkey repeatedly declaring the Kurds “terrorists,” and attacking Kurdish targets in Afrin District. YPG commanders have openly talked about invading Turkish-held parts of Syria and “liberating” them into the Kurdish autonomous region of Rojave.
Turkish Deputy PM Numaan Kurtulmus denied that Turkey was “declaring war” against the YPG, but did insist that they are “making preparations” to protect Turkish independence from the “threat” posed by the continued existence of the YPG on their border.
If fighting does break out, it will likely derail the YPG’s invasion of the ISIS capital city of Raqqa, virtually obliging them to withdraw much of the invasion force to defend their own territory from a Turkish advance. This fear has been foremost in the minds of US war-planners, who have repeatedly tried to prevent the two sides from direct combat situations against one another.
“This fear has been foremost in the minds of US war-planners…”
US war-planners = bastards.
Or all this rhetoric and feints could be a diversion to mask the real intention of the Turks to turn on their “peace partners” Syria, Russia & Iran and instead open another front against the Syrian & Hezbollah forces. Perhaps there is a gentleman’s agreement where by the US standds bac while Turks & Kurds get to fight over the spoils once the Assad regime is toppled or marginalized into an enclave. Would make perfect sense if not for the fact there seems to be nothing in it for the Kurds.
“…Turks to turn on their “peace partners” Syria, Russia…”
Russia is not going to allow the Turks to take over any part of Syria and Erdogan is not going to turn on them as it was Russian intelligence that discovered the coup against him and warned him about it.
Furthermore, Russia cannot back down on its commitment to Syria. If it did, Russians know full well that the US/NATO would be in Ukraine shortly thereafter, challenging them in Crimea. War between Russia and the West would quickly go nuclear.
That Turkish “coup” was nothing but a false flag that enabled Erdogen to gain more power!
BS. Too many people involved. Smoke cannabis, not crack.
Turkish coup was false flag? New version of idiotic comments.
This is precisely where it is at. Turkey did say umpteen times that it does not want to stay in Syria, and respects Syrian territorial integrity. There will be need for troops during transition to peace, but the roles will be defined by the three guarantors. Turkey has — after the crisis in leadership before May 2016, secured a stable path towards Eurasian integrations, as the alternate power centers in the form of Soros and Gulen networks, visible but without popular support — have been dismantled following unsuccessful attempt at Erdogan assassination. He has been warned, very likely by Russian intelligence, and was not present at the hotel he was supposed to be on vacation. His plane flight to Istambul also was never explained. Turkey was stuggling against the foreign funded institutions that were controlling print, airwaves and internet media. The attempted coup ended those external influences, and Turkey is committed to the Eurasian coordination. It is key to its economy, to its internal stability, as well as security. NATO has proven time and again as not a reliable partner. Such changes are of strategic importance, not just a difference in day to day politics.
Your narrative is outdated. The US has no intention of toppling Assad anymore. Turkey has no intent of an offensive against Syria or Hezbollah whatsoever. Today the problem is Kurdish aggression in the Aleppo province against Turkish military and Turkmen. The YPG doesn’t know a good thing when it has one, they are blowing their chance for a future Kurdistan to include Northwest Syria. If they think they can fight the Turkish armed forces they will be crushed.
Precisely. But keep in mind that the charge Trump gave to generals was to crush ISIS, while increasingly those same generals are looking for excuses why this is not happening, or is happening at the snail’s pace. The generals, the product of Clinton/Obama era, are in fact implementing Hillary plan. Using Kurds, they were to beat ISIS. But Hillary knew that was not going to work. Using only Kurds from Kobani area, it was impossible. Not enough manpower, and unhappy population that does not want to be “liberated” by Kurds, resulted in a promise to Turkey that local Arabs would be appointed to rule liberated towns and villages. That upset Kurds, as they were hoping for a large state the region on the east side of Euphrates once ISIS is kicked out. Second brilliant idea was to rile up Kurds in Afrin, to break the corridor Turkey established between Jarabulus on its border to Al-Bab, where it is linking up with Syrian forces. Even Kurds from Kobani, now ensconced in ethically cleansed Manbij, started to rattle sabers, and promised to attack the corridor, now defended mostly by Turkey-loyal militants. But Turkey pulled in their armed forces immediately, not to give any illusion of being reluctant to defend it borders against the plans of uniting two Kurdish regions at the expense of local population.
Afrin Kurds are still playing games. They are asking for protection by either Russia or Syrian government. But to be given such protection, Kurds must be seriously prevented from provoking Turkey one way or another. Once they get protection, they have the protector on the hook, and cause further mischief. Needless to say, this behavior is due to the urging of Afrin Kurds that are seeing their hopes of large state evaporating, and urging of Hillary generals, that are still hoping to implement Hillary plan. But Hillary knew that Kurds would not be able to liberate, occupy and hold such large territory, and was planning to get US forces in at the first manufactured opportunity. However, Trump gave generals task — defeat ISIS. Not the task of expanding the mission, using excuses at to why it cannot be accomplished. Expanding mission, while not completing a single task, must be a stretch for Trump. He must see the nation-building project in the making. Not that alarm bells are not ringing in the neocon NSC, as Trump was advised to warn Syria on usage of chemical weapons. Another neocon attempt to recreate Obama’s red line, an opportunity missed. But since then, all we hear from Pentagon, Joint Chiefs of Staff and Tillerson, that US has a mission to defeat ISIS. And that all others are welcome, including Syrian army, Russia, etc. This is a potentially dangerous moment, as Trump is leaning on generals to produce victory, while neocons are finding a way to confuse, expand and prolong US stay in Syria, until they can use CIA assets under their control to come up with a crisis. Every one knows that Russia would not sit back in case of some other outrageous incident. Thus, neocon field of action has been reduced, but do not count them out. Trump must show the end of ISIS in Raqqa, and Kurds will not deliver until they are given assurances of their state or at least an autonomy Kosovo style, with NATO troops being stationed there until the time is right to declare independence. We are actually being blackmailed by Kurds, as US cannot be on the ground chasing ISIS, while simultaneously blocking Syrian Army from advancing rapidly against them. The bombing of Syrian plane occurred precisely because Syrian army advanced on territory that theoretically was “promised’ to Kurds, and thus the fight against ISIS has turned into a joke. Not to mention — ISIS has left many positons for Kurds to take, just to move its artillery and its militants towards defending the siege of Deir Azzor. US just watched on! Russian airforce bombed the convoys, resulting in US forces blocking Syrian advances against ISIS towards Al-Tanf border crossing with Iraq. It has all become a mess, a joke and an unsustainable policy. Without allowing Syria, Russia, Turkey and their allied militias to tacke ISIS without impediments — ISIS cannot be beat. In fact, they cannot be beaten for as long as they are merely a placeholder for whatever local forces US finds to take their place. Will US finally let this war end, and let regional peace initiative create a political framework to transition from war to peace? So far, there are indications that it may happen. But I cannot write neocons off. They are even using Israel against Syrian army that is battling Al-Qaeda on the border with Golan Heights. Russia and Damascus are just ignoring them — while those that have some influence over Israel economically surely have shown their displeasure diplomatically.
What other tool is available to neocons to prolong the war, and insure US footprint in Syria Afrin Kurds were one such card, but it may not very far, except as a much needed diversion.
But neocons may actually witness a bigger loss. Their arrogance resulted in even Saudi Arabia taking another look at their positon in the Middle East and the world beyond it. This is why the new crown prince is already blamed for everything that is going wrong with Saudi Arabia, and all sorts of nasty criticism of the Desert Kingdom is out in neocon dominated media. Why? They are unhappy. But what are they hoping to achieve by this? We all knew of all the nastiness of Saudi monarchy, be that in sponsoring Wahhabism and their cults in the Moslem world, or in conducting a genocidal war in Yemen. So, when neocon media come out with the criticism, we all can just ask, why now? Because neocons are angry. And angry people are not wise. If Saudi Arabia starts to right its ship, and curtail neocon inspired projects — no amount of anger coming out of some elites in US, would frighten them. They already minimized the danger to their money by redistributing it globally, to avoid being exposed to 9-11 lawsuits.
And Qatar crisis is just another headache US does not need in its endeavor to inspire Sunni Arab world against Iran. Now it really all depends on how Egypt will be courted. Until just a few months ago, Egypt was trashed by Saudi Arabia for repayments of loans, demanding that a few islands in Red Sea are transferred to Saudi Arabia. That was very unpopular in Egypt, a very needed antidote to Saudi funded, and inspired Salafism in Egypt. It is also no secret that General Haftar, once CIA asset has turned to Egypt and Russia for help in securing the control of oil rich Benghazi region. So, US may have to offer a lot to Egypt to secure what is left of US influence in the Middle East, and may have to try to moderate Riyadh in its hard line towards Egypt. Egypt’s participation in action against Doha, is such an event. Saudi Arabia can only be grateful to be pulled out of the mess. Egypt however, cannot be controlled, as it has speedily set up relationships with China and Russia, and a solid one with Iran and Turkey. So, who are the real players in Qatar crisis? Weakened Saudi Arabia, stronger Egypt, double-crossing UAE, and Saudi occupied Bahrain on one side, and Qatar and Turkey, backed by Iran, Iraq, Russia and China. The strongest cards in Saudi Camp holds Egypt, and it will extract most benefits. But US cannot assert control over Egypt, only secure a good relationship. For that, Egypt is quite ready, without abandoning any of its positions. For example, its support for Astana peace process, and its support for Damascus. Yemen war will have to end with UAE and Oman securing South Yemen, and North probably getting closer ties to Egypt to get out of isolation. Saudi Arabia cannot win militarily or politically this war. What kind of face saving will be offered, it will be probably more in Egypt’s hands, then US.
Very good point. Will US go with Kurds to the point of where Turkey is forced to go all-in with Russia coalition? This makes sense if we are to look at the state of US/NATO relationship with Turkey as a moment in time. But there is a long, long history of Turkey’s attempts to break away from what amounted to, NATO occupation. That was never a true membership. US controlled Turkey’s armed forces, and the political processes were merely decorative. One has to look at the bloody attempts at uprising, or political attempts to gain independence — in the sixties, seventies, eighties and nineties While many were bloody, with millions jailed, hundreds of thousands killed, many lost citizenship. Erdogan was a mayor of Istambul, and many a time jailed for his political activities. But with the fall of Soviet Union, US relaxed the political control, and Erdogan applied for forming a political party whose main objective was reform. The minders approved, having set their eyes on restructuring the Cold War economy, and “privatizing’ Turkey. Erdogan, however worked on creating party base, identified political heartbeat of the population, and used reforms to develop economic relations with Asia — to mostly benefit poor inner Anatolia. But the path to power was difficult for the party of Justice and Development. Every step of the way. From the shaky beginning, when for the first time Erdogan had formed the government, and the minimal relaxation of anti-religious laws was met with the liberal Soros funded parties attacking the ruling and almost forcing judiciary to ban the party Mind you, it was a rule that allowed religious women who wanted to wear scarf to attend public universities. But it was avoided by pulling back the legislation. You can follow details of the struggle between pro-US establishment, that consisted of armed forces and Soros funded liberal NGOs, and media. Including the key breaking point, when a conspiracy was revealed for creating a massive bombing, that was to be blamed on Erdogan, and take military back into power. The trial and jailing of the heads of army, navy and air force, about 300 top military leaders, ended the threat of military organizing coups, and for the first time, Turkey had a civilian government. Along the way, Turkey developed a burgeoning trade with Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and China. Blue Stream connected Turkey to Russian gas under the Black Sea.
From then on, Turkey was slowly but surely moving into Eurasian orbit. At some point things were going so well, that Erdogan was able to force pro American “moderate religious leader’ Gulen, into exile to US. That was the time when Erdogan established “no problems with neighbors” policy, started a commission of historians with Russia and Armenia to jointly review the history of Armenian genocide — something not very popular in Turkey. But while the commission was working, the borders with Armenia were to be opened. And the deal with Kurds was cut, giving all fighters amnesty, which saw thousands of them come back from the mountains. But these moves were not desirable in the NATO-stan. France out of the blue passed a resolution on Armenian genocide, and Kurds — suddenly flush with weapons — attacked an unsuspecting Turkish military outpost, killing many The policies were scuttled, due to patriotic fury. Skipping many an attempt to undermine Erdogan — with terrorist attacks, Soros organized protests over a park, Kurdish demonstrations that were conveniently targeted for bombing — to push government into defensive for that atrocity And on, and on it went. The two factions in the leading party — pro-Erdogan and pro-US were constantly at odds with each other over the policy, and other pro-Western parties, like Republican Party, were their allies. But they all agreed to the beneficial economic relationships with Russia, planned to build atomic power plant with Russia, and were very discreet in Russian-Georgia war, as many in Turkey supported Russian action. This resulted in an unprecedented anger that US displayed in 2008, and only the financial crisis in US distracted focus on Turkey. As Turkey was very much against war in Iraq, blocked US forces using Incirlik air base, and tried to help break the blockade of Gaza by sending supply ships. All that only pushed Turkey away from Western integration. The joke of Turkey’s attempt of joining EU, only added to the understanding in Turkey, that it is not welcome in Europe, except as an obedient vassal. US interference in Egypt, Libya and Syria signaled to Turkey that US intends to remake Middle East into its controlled territory, what would mean cutting Turkey off from the Middle East entirely, unless it cooperates. With the understanding that Assad was going to fall, and that various armed factions were all working for US — regardless of who funded them and what flavor of ideology they followed. Turkey chose to support its own militants, chiefly along its border, and jostling with US groups for the position between Turkish border in Syria and Iraqi border. Turkey started to coordinate more with Iran and Russia, and internally — the political system was split between those that were in favor of giving US whatever it wants, and those that were for stronger ties with Russia, Iran and China. The entry of Russia into Syrian war in September 2015, changed the position of Turkey dramatically. Supporters of Erdogan were encouraged, but the Western oriented politicians used every lever at their disposal to delay or prevent the constitutional change that would establish presidential system, and eliminate the unstable parliamentary one. That split state of affairs lasted and culminated in the dramatic fashion between November 2015 and July 2016 In November of 2015, following the election of Ergodan for president, a pro-Western prime minister, Davutoglu, was appointed. On that day, hours before being sworn in, Turkey shot Russian plane over Syria, on the grounds that it crossed briefly into Turkey. It was clear that Russia was going to take a tough stance, to force the pro-Western parties to justify their anti-Russian positon at the expense of the vast economic benefits its enjoyed before the crisis. While the population was staunchly pro-Erdogan, the pro-Western political forces in full control of the media, had an appearance of strength. The impasse was broken end of May 2016, when Davutoglu government lost confidence in the ruling party, and pro-Erdogan prime minister and other ministers were appointed. In the matter of days, Turkey apologized to Russia, and changed its entire politics towards Syria. That sent the alarm bells ringing all across the Western alliance, and a hastily arranged coup was attempted in July 2016. That was really less of a coup, then an attempt at Erdogan assassination. Troops that were taken out were for a show of force, and even their immediate commanders did not know the purpose of the “exercise”. But Erdogan was warned, and he was not found at the hotel he was supposed to be at on his vacation. Same with the government. Prime minister and other ministers were in Parliament, instead of at home on Friday evening. Once Erdogan showed up at Istambul airport, and called the population to come to the streets, it was over. Hundreds of thousands came to the streets, and may were killed in the confusion, as the troops had conflicting orders. Many soldiers were rescued by the police from the enraged mobs. This was the end of the divided Turkey. The aftermath was predictable, as the Soros and Gulen media were closed or editorial boards replaced, and Gulen network among prosecutors, judges, universities, and police — was dismantled. The prosecuting of Gulen networks is still under way, and Turkey has not given up on the extradition of Gulen from US. The relationship of Turkey with the Eurasian block has become more open, and more comprehensive, but it is not new. Turkey became a member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization back in 2014, on the partner level. The economic ties between Turkey and the entire Silk Road corridor have been promoted and fostered by both Russia and China, Mega project have been signed between China and Turkey on the development of an online trading portal in all languages of the Silk Road. The new segment of Turkish stream gas pipeline just started construction two months ago, and various agreements on energy, including atomic power plant, are going ahead. China is a silent partner in all of the processes, as it works on Balkans, starting with the redevelopment of the purchased port of Pyreus, through infrastructure projects in Macedonia, Serbia and Hungary This is the main reason US went all out to organize another soft-coup in Macedonia, to bring its chosen leader to power As usual, role of US has been reduced everywhere on BLOCKING other people’s projects, but not having anything to offer in return.
There are too many events in Turkey to give them justice, but even a superficial review shows the long path that Turkey took from being NATO vassal, to being a regional factor in Eurasian integration. Today, it is partnering with region to stabilize Syria, has a presence in Iraq, and a military base in Qatar, another country that has economic links to Iran, including sharing a large oil field. Qatar will be supported by Turkey, Iran, and Iraq. And is silently supported by Russia and China, as well as Pakistan. In spite of Egypt’s strong stance against Moslem Brotherhood, it is known fact that Egypt has no problem with Hamas, the offshoot of Brotherhood, and has recently delivered oil to Gaza to compensate for the cut off of oil from Israel. Because of the cut off, Gaza has only tree hours of electricity a day, and Egypt is stepping in to reduce the hardship. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are not friends, and Egypt’s joining the anti-Qatar alliance will simply strengthen Egypt’s position vs. Saudi Arabia — today with few friends. And as just about everyone wants to see the globalist version of Moslem Brotherhood religious leader, Al-Qaradawi gone, that is going to be an easy one.
Things are changing in the Middle East, and short of some major war — including nuclear confrontation — there is no easy way to ensure US hegemony over Middle East. This is why Iran card is being pushed, as the only possibly limited warfare that can be conducted. But there is no way either Russia or China will allow that. Neither will Iraq or Pakistan. And the coalition of Sunni states is falling apart, with all parties more interested in settling scores among themselves, then tackling Iran. Saudi Arabia, the prime contender for the leader in such endeavor cannot find a way to end Yemen war. Kuwait, with 40% of Shia population will not want to participate. Bahrain, with 80% Shia population is already on a lockdown, and Saudi tanks are keeping the lid on it. Oman wants nothing to do with challenging Iran. Egypt is a regional power, and is keeping strong ties with Russia and China, as well as Iran and Turkey. There are many peaceful ways US can end the Middle East mess — and profit from its redevelopment. But the militarism has become a blood stream of our financially driven economy, making it harder to reorient to the economy based on tangible products. But not impossible. Saudi Arabia — to everyone’s surprise, had the new crown prince extoll the value of Silk Road, and his commitment to build economy not dependent on energy alone. This is an opening for US. There are myriad ways for US businesses to get engaged in the Silk Road and Belit initiatives, instead of blocking them. US superiority in many industrial branches makes it a great candidate for joining the development of the world’s potential. China is both a competitor and a financier, and many a problem can be solved by our active involvement. But this involves giving up imperial ambitions of our elites. But American people are ready. Hope Trump remembers it.
I defer to your closer following of the internal Turkish politics and dynamics. But some questions have to remain about Erdogans true intentions as there is no doubt he could have tougher on Syrian Islamists and their lifelines through Turkey at a much earlier stage in the conflict. It shouldn’t have taken Russian bombing to hobble ISIS oil traffic through Turkey (f course Assad bought oil from ISIS too but at times when Syria had no alternatives…). He also could have incentivized the ethnic Turk militias to position themselves less closely to the Islamist and Western-backed opposition and more willing to work with Damascus in exchange for greater local autonomy. It’s possible the coup provided Erdogan with a final disillusioning and he now sees B’ath-rulled Syria as by far the least of his problems, but it remains to be seen as taking such a stance would mean alienating parts of the Sunni world in which I feel Erdogan wanted to be seen as one of the champions.
Turkey wants to save his ISIL thugs. Everybody knows this but the World is silent.
I think the Turks have realized the hard way that you just can’t cozy up to the likes of ISiL, Al Quaida and other absolutists, they are so extreme as to bite the hand that feeds them even while they still need the food!
However they seem to want to want to leave the door open to being on the US/Saudi “regime-change” team just in case ot turns out the US is able to control the Kurds and keep them busy fighting Syrian troops after Raqqa falls. But that’s balanced against the temptation to do something pre-emptive to keep the Kurds from using this opportunity to improve their position relative to Turkey.
No, this is not the case. Turkey, Iran and Russia are sponsors of peace process for Syria. Even though they do not advertise their meetings too much, understandably, it is still possible to learn, for example, that the last meeting (just ended) resulted in forming a joint working committee, a very non-descript name for a beginning of forming a new government. It is made of all parties, groups that signed cease-fire months ago, that agreed to the de-conflict zones, as well as Syrian government and the three guarantors. While Assad is trying to be accommodating to Kurds, Turkey is blocking any aggressive move that Kurds are undertaking or are planning to undertake with the encouragement of US government. There are TWO Kurdish areas, and they are separated. Far away from each other. They tried to take towns and villages along the Turkish border, and after the massacre of non-Kurds in Manbij — with US help — Turkey intervened A corridor has been established between Turkish border town of Jarubulus, and Al-Bab. Now, Kurds are making noises and are hoping US will help them break through. More ethnic cleansing, more civilians suffering.
All we need is get out of there, and peace will be secured in no time. Kurds will come to their senses, ISIS will evaporate into the desert, and normalcy restored. But EGOS in US are way to big to accept that. And if we do not participate in Astana process — we are the ones preventing the end of hostilities.
You need information. A lots of it. It is not too hard.
This has been going on for 20 years nothing has changed.
I really cannot understand this article. Genuinely. It is either written in haste and a willful ignorance, or just following the fake media obediently without questioning. Let us start with the complaint that Turkey — and its actions against Afrin — are the problem in tackling Raqqa! Let’s get a map, if it is too complicated to figure this one out. And even if this is too hard, how about listening what Kurds are saying. They want to “liberate” territory between Jarabulus and Al-Bab, now held by Turkey and the militia it controls. How more disgusting can it get! Liberate! Create their Rojava! Shame on all of us for just taking this kind of naked aggression and ethnic cleansing like it is a normal thing!
Everybody knows unless one lived under a rock, that US plan to “liberate” not just Raqqa, but the entire Raqqa governorate, then Hassakah governorate and beyond — IS NOT POSSIBLE. Kurds are majority ONLY IN KOBANI AND AFRIN REGIONS. PERIOD. They have been expanding territory at the expense of all other population. In Raqqa, Kurds are tiny minority. Same in all other larger townships and towns of the region And almost 100 of villages outside Kobani area are majority Arab, Turkmen or Assyrian and Iraqi
As they CANNOT beat ISIS outside Raqqa and then HOLD territory, US is now thinking