Syrian government lead negotiator Bashar al-Jaafari today blamed Turkey for the relative lack of progress in the peace talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, saying that every other country present was ready to adopt the documents, but was stopped by Turkey’s delegation.
The issue appears to be with the Syrian safe zones, which ironically were a long-time pet project of the Turkish government, with the Turkish delegation apparently refusing to agree to a deal on implementation of the safe zones, insisting they need more time.
It is unclear what Turkey’s specific objection was, if any, to a plan which would’ve seen Russia, Turkey, and Iran each deploy military police to the borders of the safe zones to prevent any incursions. The deal will be brought up again at a meeting in early August.
The four safe zones established don’t appear to intersect with Turkey’s military possessions inside northern Syria at any rate, nor are they in the way of an apparently imminent war between Turkey and north Syria’s Kurdish YPG forces, and Turkish officials gave no indication what the problem was, apart from needing more time to “consider” the matter.
Turkey has to be pushed to show and play it’s hand here. They can’t be trusted as long as they want to sit on both sides of the fence, keeping open the possibility of staying on the US/Saudi “regime-change” team just in case it turns out the US succeeds in making the Kurds do all the fighting without getting anything in return.
As long as the USG is backing the Kurds to take Raqqa from ISIS, Turkey is unlikely to agree to a peace plan. There are virtually no Kurds in Raqqa but the USG is using them to prevent the Assad government from retaking Raqqa and the rest of its territory. A hardened, experienced Kurdish militia, many of its members from Turkey, is unacceptable to Turkey.
Tillerson wants to give up the plan to dismember Syria but his viewpoint will take time to trickle through, and be accepted by, the rest of the foreign policy establishment.