Regional tensions continue to rise over the split with Qatar today, as Egyptian junta leader President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi called on the other nations participating in the anti-Qatar blockade to agree to expand the siege to include NATO member nation Turkey.
Sisi is mad at Turkey primarily because Turkey’s President Erdogan has supported Qatar during the recent siege, and has criticized moves against Qatar as “un-Islamic,” saying the region should be committed to unity, and not divisiveness.
Sisi brought up the matter during an official visit by the King of Bahrain, one of theother nations participating in the siege. No other nations have yet commented on the possibility of bringing Turkey into the siege, but there are a lot of reasons it is unlikely.
Turkey is much larger than Qatar, and more influential. They are also one of the region’s largest exporters of food, and the loss of them as a trading partner would be potentially very problematic for nations like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with no obvious replacements.
Moreover, this would further solidify the ideological divide around which the Qatar split is truly based. Resentment against Qatari media’s support for pro-democracy Islamic movements, particularly opposed by Sisi, who in 2013 came to power in a coup removing an elected Islamist government, is a big part of the anti-Qatar push, but Turkey’s own ruling party is a conservative Islamic party, and has backed the Qataris as a result.
Moving against Turkey would be extremely risky in this regard, as while Sisi hopes it would oblige Turkey to abandon its support for Qatar, it would in all likelihood solidify it, and make it increasingly obvious that Qatar is not isolated.
You know, if the “plan” was to stir the ME pot and then add munitions which might then explode and turn the ME into one very large shooting mess, well, it working. Looks like the neocons were finally right, for a change. Of course, as with nearly everything these armchair generals and ideological gods do, they fail miserably when it comes to anticipating and planning for unintended consequences and blowback – which there most certainly will be.
And if the Muslim countries in the ME turn their animus on each other, there will no putting the lid back on Pandora’s Box. And if you think the price of oil is high now, wait until the oil from the ME can no longer be extracted and the oil extracted from outside the ME becomes a very, very valuable commodity – worldwide. So Sparky, buckle up!
War materials, oil and $3.5 trillion each year by the medical industry, such is the bulk of our economy. Comes now Trump to try and maximize profit, such that the sickness in all three industries could be so bankrupting that only a socialist revolution could save our economy.
Both sides of this conflict are extremist dictators who support terrorists, so it’s really neither here nor there who wins and who loses.
Unless it’s a new kind of proxy war with USA backing Saudi Arabia and Russia backing Qatar.
For the magnitude of a war is in direct proportion to the wealth involved, in this case over 70% of all the wealth on earth, making this rupture sufficient in itself to start World War Three.
So far I’ve seen no evidence of that. Trump is still selling weapons to Qatar – funny way to fight a proxy war.
Also how do you get that 70%? Europe and East Asia have not taken sides.
And this is exactly what the upper echelons of our rjlers hope for. Thry think it is just a game. The tensions are throwing out of balance two key players of Astana peace proces for Syria. Iran and Turkey. But this is Middle East, and nothing is what appears to be. It is extremely indicative that Egypt is in the middle of this.
Why? Up until a few weeks ago Saudi Arabia has been furious at Egypt for getting out of Yemen mess. KSA stopped shipping of already paid off oil to Egypt. Egypt was coerced to turn over some islands to KSA, something very unpopular in Egypt. Egypt is in fact creating anti-Saudi mood — a political move designed to pull away Salafi masses from sympathizing with Wahhabi Saudia. Additionally, Egypt’s involvement with Libya’s Gen. Hefter is getting more and more at odds with KSA and US “unity” government.
UAE are taking over South Yemen, bit by bit — and there is nothing KSA can do about it. The Yemen “government” it supports has no real territory to claim its own, as there is no way to conquer the mountainous north — with strong and united tribes that know those mountains. Where is Saudi Srabia hesding with this — hard to say. But adding a new problem with Qatar will not make Yemen go away. And UAE is doing roaring trade with Iran, while Kuwait has over 40% of Shia population. And with Egypt pointing at Turkey as Qatar enabler — US has to either offend Turkey or Egypt. And with US selling to Qatar billions worth of war planes — it does look like Egypt will find itself very offended — or on a more practical base, Egypt has Saudi Arabia in a check position, tables have turned. What I see is Saudi Arabia not keeping for much longer the role of leadership in Sunni world. As this is much bigger then Gulf, and much bigger then Arab Sunni world. Trump may have walked into a snake pit, and his NY street cred are insufficient to deal with the tangled web. So, as some are dreaming of war with Iran — there won’t be many takers.