While a lot of the focus of fighting between ISIS and Assad government forces in Syria has been around Palmyra, the bigger near-term story is the Syrian military’s offensive against the last ISIS-held town in Aleppo Province, the strategically important Maskaneh.
Syrian Army forces over the weekend secured the mountainous area of Maskaneh, and dozens of nearby villages, effectively expelling ISIS from Aleppo, and more importantly, greatly securing their hold over the main road that connects the city of Aleppo to the capital of Damascus.
This loss likely sets the stage for more Syrian Army pushes into the northern part of Hama, to fight with both ISIS forces and other Islamist factions in that area. An offensive in this area would allow them to surround the Idlib Province, the last major stronghold of al-Qaeda forces and several other rebel factions.
Though invading Idlib itself is likely all but impossible at this point, given how many rebels were already there, and how many others have been evacuated into the area, the Assad government seems to be making an effort to secure all the areas bordering it, which would allow them to effectively contain these groups and shift focus to ISIS.
This time last year, ISIS controlled most of the Aleppo Province, but lost much of it to a Turkish invasion, and has ultimately lost the rest of the Syrian Army itself. This splits the province between the Assad government and Turkey-backed rebel forces.
The Syrian militias under the command of the Turkish government aren’t rebels any more, they are a foreign legion for Turkey.
Precisely. They are now paramilitary under Turkish Army control. But in our media, the story is still warped. Turkey, Iran and Russia have a deal on how to bring peace to Syria, and Damascus in on board with that. The four zones that are identified as safe zones, or as Damascus puts it, de-escalation zones, have a key purpose. All of them are either cut off from surrounding areas, or are on a border — with Turkey or Jordan. Turkey is working within the Agreement, and not a day goes by that Turkey does not emphasize Syrian territorial integrity, and its own intentions to respect it. In our media, this is always left out, but what we have is a proliferation of “Erdogan, the Sultan”, and his ambitions to restore Ottoman empire. Thus, you all in Iraq and Syria, remember Turks are your enemies, and we, the human rights loving West, are your friends. Trust us to establish peace in the region, not those Turks, Iranians or Russians.
Our media just carries politically correct narrative, and we are unfortunately mostly on our own to check out many sources of information to see the pattern on either side.
Turkey and Damascus have clearly cooperated in Turkish push to Al-Bab. This may be now forgotten, as mainstream media just pushes any non-compliant piece of information to the media black hole. But the result is positive for Damascus — as Turkey has cut off any possibility of Afrin Kurds to join territory with Kobani Kurds. Presently, US has to work with a severely limited Kurdish forces from Kobani area. Turkish and Syrian forces are now in direct contact on the ground, and the possibility of movement of either ISIS or Kurds to the East, blocked along Turkish border, up to the strategic Al-Bab. This is why all kinds of attempts were made by both Al-Qaeda or ISIS to move to the south, and try their luck with overstretched Syrian forces. But by now, this has failed. With the liberation of Homs and Aleppo, over 70,000 Syrian troops have been freed up to move eastward into ISIS territory. What will remain tense, is the border with Jordan, as this is were US base is, as well as a fresh Norwegian contingent. But they are isolated at the border region with some Islamists, but not in a position to move out of this area.
This is why Army was able to recover Palmyra and expand the territory it holds around Palmyra.
And as the game between Kurds and ISIS is continuing in Raqqa Governorate — with ISIS leaving villages and Kurds picking them up, the reality is rather transparent ISIS “losses” were merely resulting in shifting more militants to prevent Syrian Army pushing further to the East, break siege of Deir Azzor, and then move to connect with Iraqi forces on the border. THIS is the danger to Western plans, not ISIS. ISIS fighters are not a bit concerned about Raqqa, or else, why move not just personnel but also heavy artillery towards Palmyra/Deir Azzor? It is because this is a game — a game of forcing Syria to leave as much territory unrecovered. Since Kurds CANNOT effectively occupy Raqqa, Hassakah and Deir Azzor regions — even if ISIS just folds. Kurds are not welcome by Syrian Arabs no more then ISIS, and resistance groups have already been formed to confront Kurds — after ISIS is gone.
But never underestimate the degree of coordination here. Strangely enough, ISIS does not leave a town or a village before EXECUTING all leading people, and minimizing a chance that Kurds will run into an organized resistance. It is all quite disguising, and at some point, Trump will have to ask his generals — to whom he turned over the anti-ISIS operations, what is their goal, and when will it be achieved. So far, ISIS has left some places to Kurds, while focusing on other areas. But Syrian Army, now with safe zones in place, with bulk of Al-Qaeda in Idlib between its forces and Turks, and other militant pockets not dangerous — has freed up resources to move against ISIS. So, even if Kurds and US allow all ISIS to move against Syrian forces, it may backfire. For one, ISIS militants are not good when they fight as a military force. They are effective only when they capture an unprotected town or a village. There, they move in with their families, and establish the rule of terror over inhabitants. Their biggest weapon are civilian hostages — as civilian toll in trying to liberate them, is always high. Civilians are forced to serve in militant ranks, or they are killed. And the liberating forces end up killing civilians as well. ISIS never allows their captives to leave, so this method of urban warfare has been quite successfully implemented by ISIS. Especially, when the entire West was shedding tears when Syria was liberating Aleppo. Not one bad word was said against the cruelty of those that kept population hostage for years, took their children for fighting or for “marriage”, took all of their possessions and left them hungry and without medical care. While propagandizing “White Helmets”. Defeating ISIS will prove to be a very difficult task. Not only that their form of radicalization, the Wahhabi-following cult only resembling Islam — will be hard to eradicate. As any cult, this will require not just military but all social institutions to deal with the problem. When you compound it with the fact that in the West, we pick and chose who is ISIS or Al-Qaeda, and who among them is “good”. Good guys, bad guys — just a matter of a definition, and can be redefined multiple times as needed.
But if ISIS is being relocated from its civilian quarters, and moved into isolated positons in desert regions to confront Syrian Army — they will not do well. They can be targeted from air as well. I guess US generals have thought that through. First, Kurds will “heroically” take over all that ISIS abandons, ISIS will bleed Syrian Army — keeping it busy, and not having resources to tackle any militant activity within various zones. And then, depending on the progress — decide to curb Syrian progress, and just let them in a stalemate.
The only danger is in both Syrian and Iraqi Army focusing on main roads and border checkpoints, as this will establish the sovereignty over borders, as well as curb the free flow of supplies from Saudi Arabia across Iraq into Syria. This is why Iraq is being accused now of atrocities in and around Mosul, while Syrian Army occasionally gets “accidentally” hit by US forces.
These are all high-risk strategies for US generals. If by any chance — and probability is good — Syrian forces deal with ISIS more effectively, and borders taken over by Iraq, Syria or both — then the Kurdish takeover becomes less likely. ISIS may not want to give up their civilian lairs for the honors of fighting Damascus in the desert — if losing on all sides. Turkey is already making some noises on the battle for Raqqa, and one cannot forget that Turkey and Syrian Army interlock at Al-Bab, a critical juncture towards Raqqa. If there is any movement whatsoever of Turkish army, all bets are off. The neat Kurdish-ISIS handover of territory will come to an end. Each will have to mind its own interest, and the push towards Deir Azzor will become a wasteful project for ISIS. Their only hope at that point is to reach a deal. As US and Kurds want them gone, they can cut deal only with Turkey. Our generals may know something more then ordinary mortals, but on the basis of the furious reaction at Iraq taking over border posts, not to mention Syria — all indications are that Kurds, US and Saudi Arabia are running out of any incentives for ISIS to take. They need to withdraw somewhere, as staying forever is not an option. Now, that Trump wants action against ISIS, the old option of just bombing some deserts for years, and call it fight against ISIS — cannot be done again. All getting really tricky. But for now, both Baghdad and Damascus are enjoying a bit more comfortable seat then in a long, long time.
Assad, like Gary Johnson, finally had his Aleppo moment!