Syria has reached another deal on evacuation with another rebel faction near Damascus, with over 1,000 people, including rebels and family members bused out of the Barzeh District, and sent north toward the Idlib Province, which is held by various rebel factions.
Barzeh has been described as a virtual ghost town during the civil war, as the rebel presence and the constant fighting around the periphery has made it, like a lot of Damascus suburbs, profoundly unsafe. As fighting has turned against the rebels, more and more have been willing to make deals.
The government has been eager to make such deals, as actually engaging in urban fighting to remove the rebels is a messy proposition, and they appear to much prefer having them evacuated into the north, which at the very least clears more of the area around the capital city.
In the end, such evacuation deals are filling Idlib up with a lot of rebels, and while there is some infighting among them, it’s also such a large force it may be very difficult for Syria’s military to ever retake these areas, making the displacements potentially the start of a permanent division within Syria.
It is at present a pure speculation as to the future of Idlib. Various groups have very
diffferent motivations for fighting and very different perspective on future. It is clear that a plan exist — Turkish, Iranian and Russian plan will contain a long term view of the region. There are several factors of importance — the region is close to Turkey and adjacent go Afrin Kurdish area. With Turkish and Syrian army blocking Kurds from advancing and linking up with Kobani Kurds — the tensions between Afrin Kurds
and other groups in Idlib is a key factor. While Al-Qaeda funded groups try to dominate others, there is still ISIS presence attempting to run weapon smuggling operations. All this indicates that Turkey may end up running checkpoint operations in this safe zone. This will keep Kurds in check and prevent Arab groups to fight Kurds, as well as block any Kurdish state in Afrin region. There will be an ongoing needs for peacekeeping and stabilization. Turkey is working with Damascus — in spite of appearance. Iran will also supply forces for safe zone monitoring. Russia has already ground forces in several operations — working with Turkey and Iran to work out details of four zones that are surrounded by government forces. The only contested areas are in Raqqa and Deir Azzor Governorates where ISIS is still present.
The area is nothing more fhen a theater of the absurd. ISIS is a stage prop at this point — it is too bad that the foot soldiers do not know it. As civilians there are dying of bombs — nothing will be settled until
US makes up its mind about its seriousness about giving Kobani Kurds their “autonomy”. And while mulling that option — US is keeping Kurds on the hook, while trying to get Turkey to accept various generous offers. Except that Turkey prefers a bird in hand to US promises in a distant bush. And as this tango is slow dancing to some murkey compromise, Syrian and Iraqi forces are racing to secure their mutual border crossings — sealing ISIS withdwawal path into Iraq or Jordan.
While US found excuses to bomb Syria anti-ISIS advance — it will not attack Iraq. The most we hear from mainstream media is whinning about those being some bad Shia Iraqi militia. At this point — neocon policies and their media have reached the very linnacle of stupidity. While accusing Iran and Iraqi Shia of “terrorism”, these are the groups that along with Syrian Army, Turkish Army and Russia — are the ones ACTUALLY fighting all terrorist groups: ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and other Salafi fundamentalists. Other members of the “coalition” did nothing. And if US does not find a key to Turkish-Kurdish problem — Iraq and Syria may have to squeeze ISIS between them. Russia will try to stall this — as Russia typically works on face-saving options to insure US has opportunity to work out a solution. But at this point Trump
may review the performance of generals that were given full authority to remove ISIS. If nothing major happens on US -Turkey understanding, the ISIS problem will be solved by attrition, and area subject to haggling shrinking by the day.
The IS is far from a theatrical prop. It may have been meant to be, but it has its own agenda.
The Kurd alliance with U.S. forces was the start of permanent division in Syria. It was followed by Turkish invasion. All those rebels in Idlib won’t change much on that score but will make Syrian Syria more secure.
Diluting the Kurdish/Turkic northern presence with more rebels of different stock seems like the best plan, and however it works out, it saves lives in the present. Altogether, dealing and negotiating with those that can be reasoned with has not been a bad policy on Assad’s part.
I’m not sure if there is really an endgame, just new opportunities for greater chaos. It will get more intense as the world settles into a more Eurasian order.
This is true. The intensity will pick up — but around the globe, and Middle East might get some reprieve. What seems to be happening is the disturbance invthe ranks of old order — and those that were on the top
During its hayday. Now, even though US may not wish to water down its focus — the locals are panicking and causing anything from political tantrums to undermining governments that are wavering in Atlanticist spirit. Thus, Phillipines, North and South Korea. There are strains in India and Pakistan, and now a new rantrum invthe Gulf. The EU-.religion elites in Balkans are threatening a tantrum because they fear a slippage in EU/US influence and growing “incursion” of Russia and China. So — yes, the chaos will grow, but will have to be controlled lest it damages too much the status quo. At some point, chaos does not mean opportunity, but a loss. I am guessing that this may prompt some form of end game in Syria-Iraq space. It is tying up too much of resources. India and Pakistan are setting many differences aside, to ascend together tobpermanent membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization this month. Last year Azerbeijan and Armenia became members in a partner level — and we may see an elevation of Iran from an observer to permanent status, and Turkey from partner to observer. So — many more Eurasian challenges as tight lipped membership grows. How to respond to the tide, without blowing up the planet? Trump was on the right track by getting partially out of the block mentality West vs. Rest — and having a more multi-vector approach with US essentially emulating Shanghai Cooperation Organization Charter — an organization based on a few principles — buttressed by mutual benefit and a no harm committment. It is a medical oath applied to trade and politics — first do no harm. It is Trumo’s basic idea of trade as a mutually beneficial instrument without coercion in the form of supra-national agreements that contain legal and judiciary powers that overrides democratic institutions at home. To me, Trump is not alone in this thinking — and opening up to rethinking West bunker mentality is definitely in US interest.
BUT, and it is a big one — will the elites that are now in US sitting at the top of the privilege totem pole, give it up without fight, or at least seeking good terms for themselves.
Hence, Trump has to confuse, paralize, appease, agitate and entertain all of those that stand to lose, and not disappoint those that in the long run stand to gain. Of course, Trump is here just a brand name — the initiators of change are — as usual — not eager to be seen.
In spite of the appearance of calm — Qatar mess is not a welcome mess to US. Saudi strategy of Sunni unity against Shia, has always been problematic, and only extreme short termers tought it good. But Shia population is not going to disappear from ME, with or without Iran. They are 40% of Kuweit, 65% of Iraq, 80% of Bahrain and about 50% of Lebanon, 70% of North Yemen, and almost 90% inhabitants of Saudi towns in oil rich region. And while a 20% minority in Syria, they are politically alligned with Sunni leadership and urban Sunnis, with Christians, Palestinians, as well as Iraqi Shia refugees in Syria. They are thus a vast majority in Syria that is the source of Syrian Army and the support of Government. In UAE lives a sizeable Iranian business community — and they also may not like rocking the boat. And UAE wants to control Yemeni port of Aden, taking away the control of airport from Saudis.
More chaos anyone in the ME? More money into sand dunes? Sure, while Eurasian caravan just moves on.