US-backed Kurdish YPG forces have today announced that they have full control over the town of Tabqa, and the nearby hydroelectric dam, which over recent weeksz they had contested with ISIS. They insisted the town is now “completely liberated.”
On the bank of the Euphrates River, and west of the ISIS capital city of Raqqa, the city is the latest in a long-term YPG operation intended to “surround” Raqqa, though at present only a small fraction of the perimeter of Raqqa is surrounded.
Tabqa is also the biggest town the YPG has captured in awhile, as other than their capture of the city of Manbij last year, most of their offensives have focused on tiny villages that happen to be in theoretically valuable areas, and even then places with a limited ISIS presence.
It is unclear where the next YPG offensive will be focused, though they have made some limited efforts to get into Deir Ezzor Province to Raqqa’s east, and that might be a logical next step for a force with limited logistics, and an influx of heavy US weapons.
What is new. Kurds are taking over strategic water and electric infrastructure region. And there were only scattered villages around — hardly much ISIS. The only reason Syrian government did not take the region is simple. For yesrs now US led coalition is patrolling the skies of all presumed ISIS area across Euphrates — keeping it off limits to Syrian and Russian air force. Even though not much harm was done to ISIS, Kurds with their extremellyy small force, seem to aleays get ISIS to move out, and they take area — as a rule against the will of the Arab population of the area. With US full knowledge and assistance Kurds have been expannding their territory — which has absolutely nothing to fo with strategy to conquer ISIS. At the moment ISIS is so relaxed that they are shifting their resources to Deir Azzor, to tackle Syrian Army. Let us recall
that US bombed “by mistake” Syrian base at Deir Azzor allowing ISIS to surround the town and base. Ever since Syria is trying to push ISIS back from the area — but with reinforcements coming from Raqqa all the time — it has been slow. Why is ISIS so relaxed, and not at all afraid to let resources go — meaning that they are in no fear of anyone attacking Raqqa.
This is a dangerous theater. Trump is following Hillary plan to establish Kosovo style autonomy for Kurds, and then let it declare independence at a convenient time, and like in Kosovo, create a state run by NATO. But it is a dangerous project, as Turkey will not allow it. As it would surely lead to Albanian style expansion and undermining all neighboring states, separating Turkey from Middle East, Iraq from Syria, and all of them from Iran. So — a good plan on paper, but not implementable. A slippery slope in the sands of Middle East. There are simply too many interests that do not envision any form of Kurdish entity outside of sovereignty of either Syria, Iraq Turkey or Iran. The more US pushes for Kurdish extrateritoriality in order to find excuse to stay — the more bargaining will be demanded by others. Turkey has been seeking for ways to distance from NATO. US on the other hand knows the relative loss of European influence around the globe, and needs to step up to a new role, not weighted by European issues.