The last significant ISIS-held town in the Aleppo Province, al-Bab is in a particularly dire position tonight, surrounded on both sides by enemy forces, with Syrian military forces in the south and west and Turkish military forces in the north and east.
Turkey has been trying to capture al-Bab for over a month, albeit unsuccessfully. As Syrian forces fought off al-Qaeda fighters around the outskirts of the city of Aleppo, immediately west of al-Bab, they’ve found themselves on the town’s outskirts as well.
This leaves ISIS with another enemy force to contend with, and further complicates the situation because the Turkish military isn’t on particularly good terms with Syria’s own military, and while the two sides are nominally both party to the current ceasefire, it might not take much for them to start fighting either.
In the past, ISIS has occasionally benefited from the multilateral fighting bringing other groups into conflict with one another. In this case, however, they are smack in the middle of the potential fighting, and their town risks being the prize over which the two sides are at odds.
This is not what is seems outwardly. Turkish military is far more powerful than Syria’s and could have effected the defeat of ISIS in Al-Bab much sooner if they wanted to. Either they’re playing some sort of game where they still want to keep the Jihadists in the game to a certain extent, or there was significant opposition withing the military to throwing
There’s also the possibility of a secret agreement among Turkey, Iran, Russia and the Kurds that the SAA should take the town because it might be viewed as “neutral” in the conflict between Turkey and Rojava. Let’s hope that’s the case, as the Turks taking it and moving on to Raqqa would facilitate construction of a “Sunnistan” and eventual partition of Syria.
It does look like a strategy. Noticed on several occassions that the relationship of Damascus to Turkey has been kept ambvivalent. On several occassions there were pointed announcements of Russian and Turkish Air Force in joint action, with the “approval of Syrian Government”. Considering the transformation of the Turkey-Russia-Iran group into a more formal Task Force with UN input — Syrian government is in complete know.
There could be a number of reasons for tactical posturing.
Some real — like Turkish Army and FSA units that joined it, having some bsttle setbacks. There were reasons to think that US was not helpfull then, and somehow, ISIS. always knew the positions of their heavy artillery. Later, there were Kurds competing for al-Bab. Days before elections, there was an interview with a Kurdish female brigade that was going to “liberate their land”, even though Kurds are minotity there. It was a nod to Hillary, who supported Kurds. Now, there is another group US supports, new name — but still with mostly Kurds. However, USCus now making a distinction and is pointedly giving other groups vehicles. It is very important change, as places like Raqqa are not looking forward to be liberated by Kurds and be ethnically cleansed in the process. So, no more mention of Kurdish operations in Al-Bab. But to allow some Kurdish role in Raqqa, Turkey may not be helpfull. Syrian Army may. But Turkey will insure that Kurds from Afrin do not take advantage of the situation and move to link up with Kobani. Turkey must control the area adjacent to the border. Syrian government cannot be stretched out, as it has many hot spots to calm. One is Palmyra and another Deir Azzor — and hope the new and improved Al-Qaeda does not strike out.
If Raqqa is cut off, that eould help Syrian Army. And with US actually bombing Idlib sites, one can assume that the love-fest with the brave revolutionaries of Aleppo, is finally over. But they will not disappear, and the problem needs solving. There is a stubborn pocket at East Ghouta. But the shape of a settlement is getting clearer. The armed groups that are part of cease fire cannot extract too many concessions. It remains to be seen who will back them up in Geneva. Will anybody try to undermine the regional effort. Working with UN is paving the way to Geneva. I only wish the venue could be changed. It is trully boring to have European cities host regional efforts at peace coordination.
The end game is approaching.
South Front today reported clashes in northern Aleppo between Turkish forces and SDF “backed by the US.” Don’t know if that means air support.
Interesting prospect. As a concept partitioned Syria might be an ideal solution but I admit I’m not very current with the sectarian/ethnographic dispersion in the country so I don’tknow if it can be worked out withiut an unacceptable amount of vulnerable & unhappy minority pockets trapped in the wrong province. Do you have any good links to recent ethnographic maps?
I also suspect the Syrian Kurds will be the odd man out now that Russia seems to believe Turkey is acting in good faith and the US is still unwilling to outrage Turkey by making the Kurds it’s no.1 asset in the theater.
A partition of Syria would be exactly what Israel and US elites want. It would turn into several weak, warring statelets, enabling Israel to slowly expand wherever it wanted. The first target would be southern Lebanon.
That’s why I said I hoped the SAA would liberate al-Bab and not Turkey. The central Syrian government must be seen by all Syrian ethnic/religious factions as the guarantor of their individual rights against all foreign and other sectarian influences.
But of course, that’s all for Syrians to decide for themselves, with no interference from you or me.