Relative calm prevailed across much of Syria today, in the first full day of the new ceasefire negotiated by Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Isolated violations early after it went into effect were compounded, however, by some fighting and even a few airstrikes and artillery shots against populated areas.
Much of the fighting centered on the northernmost tip of Hama Province, where rebel factions allied with al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front reported coming under attack from Syrian military forces. The area borders Nusra’s primary territory, the Idlib Province.
Artillery and airstrikes were reported in Eastern Ghouta, a suburb area of Damascus long-held by rebel forces, with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reporting 15 civilians killed in artillery fire, though they said they were unsure who fired the artillery.
In both cases, the dispute may center around Nusra’s status within the truce, as the Syrian Army has claimed they are excluded from the ceasefire, while rebel officials have insisted the only groups excluded are ISIS and the Kurdish YPG.
Including Nusra is a huge factor in the meaningfulness of the ceasefire, since most of the remaining non-ISIS rebels are at least tangentially allied with them, a fact which has meant most of the rebels ended up fighting some of their fighters targeted in the course of previous ceaesfires.
Not quite accurate. Al-Nusra still has the backing of the US and the West, regardless of its UN status as terrorist organization. Thus –does not suprise me that Al-Nusra claims of not being excluded from the peace talk — is just some more western style lawyering.
Let us look at the documents signed by the three countries sponsoring the cease fire. Turkey, Iran and Russia have listed all three as terrorist organizations. YPD, Al-Qaeda (under whatever name, but designated as terrorists Al-Nusra, etc.), and ISIS. Three documents were signed by the Syrian Army and SEVEN non-Nusra affiliated armed groups. The documents are: cesse fire as of December 30, accepting Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and participation in the peace conference in Astana.
None of these groups violated cease fire. Al-Nusra has huge political and logistical backing from US nnd EU countries. This is why they have the capability to maintain cells in all countries bordering Syria. Only Jordan is de facto accomplice in harboring them — while the lie factory continues to talk of Turkey as Al-Nusra supporter. If not for Hezbollah, Lebanon will fall apart from the weight of over a million refugees. But Al-Nusra, with all the funding, arming, intelligence supply, and volume of tears being shed over their loss of Aleppo — is still under the agreement by Turkey, Iran and Russia –targeted as international terrorists.
Al-Nusra infiltrated areas of water supplies, and cut them off. ISIS contaminated water supplies from Euphrates. They both are shutting off gas pipelines. And now it is CLEAR. Al-Nusra is HELPING ISIS. Turkey has multitude of proofs — including the accusations by Turkey that US is behind both. One such example is the attempt by Al-Nusra to prevent Free Syrian Army soldiers to join Turkish Army in fighting ISIS. Those militants that are now with Turkey Army have been ARRESTED by Al-Nusra when coming back to their families in Idlib.
Kurds are special case, as Obama administration is now busily writing their constitution, and are trying to carve out a statelet that would neatly separate Turkey, Iraq and Syria, with US flag on a brand new military base. A complete copy of creating Kosovo.
Turkey will oppose it, and this is a major commonality between Syria and Turkey. While Syrian army beseiged by ISIS and Al-Qaeda could do nothing to prevent it –Turkey will. Kurds would have to accept the agreement on Syrian territorial integrity to join talks in Astana. Which is what US sponsors do not want them to.
In the waining days of Obama administration, push is made to legitimuze Al-Nusra. 9/11 victims are turning in their grave. The liberal establishment in AUS and EUROPE is resorting to their lawyerly instincts — winning their case at all costs. Never mind the carnage left behind. Never mind that they are crushing a secular country. A president of Syria and his very westernized wife –are kept a secret. In order to justify the Islamists in butchering the country.
Stupid is what stupid does. And at present, Obama is doing everything possible to make his stupid decisions in the Middle East look justified.
“Seems pretty clear to me. The Al-Qaida terrorists are not included in the cease fire. Which has been the Russian position all along.”
Exactly. It’s not a ceasefire. It’s a demand by one side that the other side stop firing. There’s a difference.
Where is this definition coming from? That is the first time that I have heard “cease fire” defined as universal instrument, that must include all parties in a conflict, or else it is not — a cease fire?
And you are ABSOLUTELY WRONG that this is a “demand by one side that the other side stop firing”. I am sorry, but you must check your facts FIRST.
A cease fire is an AGREEMENT between parties, any number of parties — not always all.
This cease fire in Syria has been agreed upon between SEVEN various Islamic groups, neither of them associated with ISIS or Al-Nusra, and Syrian Army.
What does it mean “agreed upon”. This is what it means. The seven groups (total number of militants seems to be about 40,000 — at least from their sources) and the Syrian Army have agreed to a cease fire by signing the following THREE documents:
1/ Cease fire to start December 29, midnight
2/ Cease Fire monitoring procedure
3/ Participation in political process without preconditions in Astana
In addition, all of them, including the sponsors –Turkey, Iran and Russia — are supporting Syrian sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is one of the reasons Kurds are not participating; they are still hoping US will do a bit of nation-building for them. That may change, as not all Kurds are in agreement here.
Parties that are outside the cease fire, cannot claim cease fire protection. UN listed terrorist organizations cannot be part of the cease fire. Why? Both of the groups are international terrorist organizations, and all other parties in the conflict do not want these groups to have any presence in Syria after the conflict, nor be allowed to be part of the political process to give them footing in any of Syria’s counties and regions.
Another story altogether is, who on earth will want them? Where will they go? I doubt very much that Trump and Michael Flynn have any taste for nation building, or funding and keeping in reserve terrorist groups for future missions. ISIS can find a way to melt back into Sunni areas of Iraq, but since Al-Nusra is highly internationalized, relocating them will be a serious problem. Also, Al-Nusra and its affiliated groups, just like ISIS, are notorious for highly recognizable crimes against civilians, as they left their bloody trail in Syria, from the beginning of the conflict. For example, several FSA groups that are still with Al-Nusra have committed horrible crimes in one Christian village. They have posted pictures, of the victims and themselves. Same goes for Al-Zinka, and many other Al-Nusra associated groups. Al-Nusra just a few weeks ago, contaminated water supply for Damascus.
I cannot shed tears for these barbarians. And if I ever get tempted to demand justice for them, it will be for a firing squad, not a luxury of a cease fire, or a place at the peace table.
I am more concerned about what to do with people that have stooped to such levels of inhumanity. The stories from East Aleppo are just starting to come out. Is it possible for such people and their families to reintegrate into society without consequences? They have cult-like behavior and mind set, and nobody will ever be safe around them in the future. One more consequence of our liberal humanitarians and their regime change fantasies.
Al-Nusra is not native to Idlib. They have occupied this region early on, but vast majority have no native ties. Many came from Libya, many from various other countries. Some are native to Syria or Iraq. But there is simply NO region of Syria that Al-Nusra can point to and say — these are our villages, our townships. Many of FSA groups are native to the region bordering Turkey, and many of them have joined Turkish Army operations. This caused a real backlash, as angry Al-Nusra will not take it kindly when others with real ties in Syria, start slipping out of Idlib.