Last week’s talks between Turkey, Iran, and Russia on making a deal in Syria were seen as the most promising in years, in no small part because they didn’t involve the United States. The expectation was that since Turkey wasn’t demanding immediate, unconditional regime change, there was some wiggle room for a deal.
So what happened? Turkey started demanding immediate, unconditional regime change. The Turkish government made some halting efforts to broker a ceasefire with the rebel side, but made it clear the peace wouldn’t go any further without Assad’s removal from power.
Which brings us right back to where we were before, with the war raging on, no side willing to give an inch, and the expectation that in the long run the regional powers are just hoping to divide Syria, or what’s left of it, into competing spheres of influence.
At the same time, the Kurdish YPG continues to draw up what amounts to a new constitution for their unrecognized but de facto autonomous regional government, laying out a series of rules for how this will work under a federal system in Syria which doesn’t exist, and which the US at least has loudly opposed, with the White House insisting their goal is a strong central government in Syria.
The Kurdish officials, and a handful of minorities living in their territory, say they expect the new document to be easily ratified, though in the end all of the rules about interacting with the central government are purely theoretical.
One would have to be just a little bit patient for the plan yo emerge. As of now, the ceasefire is to start Dec 29, midnight. It will not apply to ISIS or Al-Nusra and their affiliates. From Al-Bab Turkey csn push towards Raqqa not Manbij. ISIS is being supported by some in US coalition. Now, it is a tricky situation — Russia is giving air cover to Turkey, as well as attacking ISIS at Dser Azzor. A strategy similar to Aleppo seems at work. Stretching ISIS in two opposite directions from Raqqa, may result in weak middle. Coalition may not be needed to take Raqqa. They can focus on Mosul. Who knows, they may need Russian and Turkish help in the end.
“As of now, the ceasefire is to start Dec 29, midnight. It will not apply to ISIS or Al-Nusra and their affiliates.”
In English: As of now, we expect y’all to cease firing at midnight, but we’re just gonna keep on shooting.
In English … if you are not a bunch of known, blood-thirsty, murdering terrorists, and if you stop shooting at us, we’ll stop shooting at you.
If you’ve blown up the Twin Towers, or if you’ve organized attacks in Europe that have killed hundreds, we’ll keep shooting at you regardless.
It’s either a ceasefire, or it isn’t. “You stop shooting, we keep shooting” is not a ceasefire.
fake news from a known corporate dis-information source … reuters.
This is completely at odds to what Turkey and Syria are saying. And shouldn’t they know better than a western, corporate, fake news service?
They are at the stage of a cease-fire, which obviously the current US government and corporate war maching would like to break up, just like they’ve broken up the previous attempts at cease fires.
The ‘halting efforts’ towards a cease-fire have succeeded. The Syrian government, and some of the rebel groups have agreed. to this. The UNSC-designated terrorist organizations, ie Al-Qaida and ISIS are not included. But others are accepting the cease-fire. The setup is very simple, stop shooting, or else the anti-terrorist coalition will start treating your group as a terrorist group and open fire on them again.
The next step is some vague guidelines for a future peace settlement still to be negotiated. But one big clue is that the Assad government has agreed to that vague plan, which is a very sure sign that it doesn’t include any language that would insist on Assad’s ouster.
At the very least, I’d wish this website would check a few other sources beyond the corporate fake news. There’s a whole world out there beyond what the corporations and their pet governments want you to think.