Following statements from US officials that they wanted a military offensive launched against the ISIS capital city of Raqqa during the ongoing Iraqi invasion of ISIS’ largest city of Mosul, the Kurdish YPG today announced that they have begun such an invasion to “liberate” the city.
It is unclear what, if anything, is actually being done on the ground to that end yet, as the announcement simply came at a press conference, and all of the comments that followed were about things that would happen in the future, with the YPG emphasizing the offensive would happen with heavy US air support.
Some 30,000 members of the YPG-dominated group which styles itself as the Syrian Democratic Forces are to surround the city, with Defense Secretary Ash Carter saying the goal is to “isolate” the ISIS capital, and then start trying to enter the city itself.
The Mosul operation, already almost three weeks old, is expected to last multiple months, and early comments from officials suggest they believe Raqqa will be an even bigger and longer offensive. Kurdish officials also say they believe taking the city would effectively mean the end of ISIS in Syria.
While Iraq is already making specious arguments that Mosul will mean the end to ISIS in Iraq, the claim in Syria is even more outlandish, since ISIS still controls substantial territory above and beyond their capital city, including the majority of the Deir Ezzor Province. While the loss of Raqqa, if indeed they lose it to Kurdish forces, would be a major blow to ISIS, the group seems to be positioned to survive over the long run, even if it ultimately means going back to a landless insurgency.
The Kurdish offensive on Raqqa is likely to also fuel more anger from Turkey, which has repeatedly warned the US not to allow any Kurds in Raqqa. The US has talked up negotiating some joint operation, but the Kurds have similarly warned the US that Turkey can’t play a role in the battle. Turkey has overtly attacked YPG forces during anti-ISIS operations in recent weeks, and that could quickly derail the Raqqa operation.
Why would Syrian Kurds want to tackle Raqqa on their own? Raqqa isn’t a Kurdish city. They just open themselves to a weakening at the hands of ISIS and a potential follow-on attack by Turkish forces in the area.
Best they leave Raqqa until Assad is finished with Aleppo, then they can help him clear ISIS, or the Turks.
It’s a trap. Carter want’s the YPG weak because they’re anarchists and their anti-statist society threatens Western hegemony in the region.
this report smacks of political posturing for a post-conflict advantage in negotiations… wait to hear from Assad or Russia.
From the US perspective, it is a good idea to stretch an enemy’s resources at a critical moment, and split their attention. Having two proxies attack at two points fits that.
From the Kurdish perspective, attacking Raqqa makes no sense. They are spending lives and resources for something they cannot hope to keep, a city that is not at all Kurdish. They’re dying to deliver it up to others who are at best unfriendly. They are also using a defensive militia as an army operating outside of its own area in an offensive capacity, for which they are not designed by recruitment or logistics.
Hence, I’d expect plenty of talk to please the US and media, but not real action that would cost the Kurds anything.
They know exactly what is in this for them. Kurdish “autonomy”, to be later — Kosovo style — upgraded to “recognized” state by all Western “democracies”. Already, they have declared their independent parliament and a constitution, like in Kosovo, probably drafted in State Department. And suitably, with a woman presiding. Trying to get into Al-Bab, a suitable propaganda is already in the works. An all female brigade has been formed, to “liberate our land”. Never mind, that just like in Raqqa town, or Raqqa governorate, Kurds are minority. That is hardly a problem, just like Manbij, US will look the other way after the liberating heroes, Kurds, kick out the non-Kurds, burn their homes to insure there is no turning back the clock.
With Al-Bab, they are trying to connect Kurdish enclaves, and create contiguous territory, where the Red Queen will plant a military base, and stay there — just like in Kosovo — to insure the region cannot ever get the normal, and reconciliation take place. Recolonizing, 21st century style, with the permanent — generations long — animosity rooted into the soil. Who profits. Saudi Kingdom and their Gulf fiefdoms — as secular regimes fall, and mediaeval city-states under control of Wahhabi cult — remain. Israel profits, as it will remain our only ally in the sea of dangerous world, and thus, be a permanent dependency. Liberal globalist world order profits, as the concept of internationally recognized nation-states, with their institutions and recognized territory — will start disappearing from the vocabulary. Obama and Clinton no longer use term “international law”, but “norms based international order”. The new norms of international order where borders do not exist. Europe has become a giant experiment on how you polarize population — where the liberals are for “humanitarian” law, rights of refugees, and the population that does not want to be inundated — is backwards, “isolationists”, racist, religious bigots, clero-fascist, etc.
Russia did not just step in the protect its ally, or one person in particular, but to protect the international law, and the rights of nation states to provide their own legal and political system, security, and control the territory and its borders. We have been so brainwashed that we cannot help it any more but to believe in the “evil” other governments (dictators, brutal dictators, autocrats, thugs), and we do not stand up for the rights of other countries — just as there will be nobody around to stand up for us. The legal noose is being prepared — witness the UN Human Rights Commission that has disgraced itself by voting to condemn the war crimes in Aleppo, and the perpetrators, Syrian Army and Russian forces. The disgrace lies in the very premise of the resolution, that gives higher rights to any group that takes up violence against legitimate state — then to the institutions and the laws of the state. Syria has become a test case for the globalists law, that is, universal human rights are higher authority then the constitution and the laws of a state. Thus, once one bullet is fired by an “opposition”, the state ceases to exist. The population demanding that State police and armed forces protect them, have automatically no rights. The only rights they would have if they join “democratic” armed “opposition”. Otherwise, they become STATELESS and with no right to protection. Example is the shelling of Aleppo. When Syrian Government forces or Russian aviation attack Al-Nusra held East Aleppo — and there are civilian casualties, this is a war crime. When Al-Nusra and others shell civilian population of West Aleppo that is under Syrian Army protection, there is no equivalent condemnation. Because all citizens that expect their Army to protect them, are no longer of concern to universal human rights. Government becomes merely a faction in fighting, and the one that is always responsible for “killing its own people”. The desired outcome is to divide Syria into territories as soon as possible, because since Russia entered to help Syrian Army — a great deal of territory was liberated. Now, Kurds are the card being played in order to at least secure as much territory for them, so ISIS have become nothing more then a placeholder for Kurdish expansion. The population that is afraid of Kurds “liberating” them — does not count. The problem in US plans is Turkey. Since its entrance into Syria, majority of former Free Syrian Army wants to fight Kurds, not Assad. The reason is simple – Kurds, with US help have already destroyed their towns and villages — and want them liberated from Kurds.
Reality is, Turkey would be a much better post-conflict occupying force, as it has no intention of staying in Syria. And the population would welcome them, being afraid of Kurds. Turkey wants to insure that there is no contiguous Kurdish state along Syrian Turkish-Iraqi border.
Thus, the battle for Raqqa has really not started yet, this is just letting Kurds put their toes into the battlefield, to force Turkey to act.
Sure enough, Turkey associated FSA is moving towards Al-Bab. The games for the political landscape shaping in post-war Iraq and Syria, is merely beginning.