The UN offered a glimmer of hope for a peace process 19 months in Yemen’s war last week, offering a peace deal which would see the installation of an interim government made of mostly technocrats, and in which former President Hadi would be a figurehead.
Hadi, on whose behalf Saudi invaded Yemen, was quick to spurn the deal, insisting it would “reward the putschists” and punish his legitimate government. Hadi was “elected” to a two-year term in office in early 2012, and resigned in 2015, but insists he remains the rightful ruler of the nation.
The Shi’ite Houthis, who had previously ruled out any deal in which Hadi was returned to power, expressed support for the UN plan as a “basis for discussion.” The deal would force Hadi’s main deputy to resign, and give Hadi little to no real power.
Hadi’s rejection, assuming it is upheld by his Saudi backers, means a continuation of the war, and greatly increases the likelihood that Yemen as a unified nation is over. The nation is already in a state of de facto split, and roughly on the same borders as before the 1990 unification.
This may ultimately make more sense for Yemen at any rate, resolving long-standing secessionist ambitions in the south, and leaving Hadi with control of South Yemen, where he is from, and where his limited political support is centered.
The Saudis are unlikely to accept such a solution, however, as it would leave a North Yemen dominated by the Houthis and former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s political allies with a substantial border with Saudi Arabia after a bloody Saudi-instigated war against them.
While a unity deal in which Hadi gets only token power would allow the Saudis to claim some measure of “victory” in their war, a formal separation would be much harder to spin, and would leave them with a very resentful neighbor on their southern border.
How much blood had to be spilled to accept what was a logical, desirable situation for all parties.
North Yemen was a country for a millennia, and South that flirted with Communism, wants to go back to their roots, meaning an Oman like Sultanate, or Emirate. In fact, South Yemen would not like Hadi at all, and would be happy not to have any entanglements with Saudis. What US and Saudis want probably is to reclaim the port of Aden, former British colony. This may be a price to pay for both sides, but let Saudis and US lord over Aden, with Hadi in charge. But North Yemen will have expanded borders, and not let Aden get into its hinterland.
This is actually very easy solution, and the enormous immaturity of the new Saudi rulers is incomprehensible. The older generations was less keen on interventionism, except by money — but this generation if looking for trouble. They are responsible for having an angry neighbor in Yemen now, as this was not necessary. They may have to come to terms with Yemen, and they will not be attacked — and the security that lasted a long time, can return. It will be a stable country without being forced into imposed unity — another one of Clinton’s brilliant ideas.
Undoing the mess — as soon as possible. And stop the bloodshed and starvation of people.
Hadi will not want to go to Sana’a. Why force him? He will hardly be of use to the South, so if the whole sacrifice of so many people — so US can get Aden, let it be. Stop the horrors.
As always, nice and educating to glean these bits of Bianca’s seeming vast knowledge of the werkings of so many horrors with empire’s greasy fingerprints. The only thing that I see which gives me pause is the “give Aden to the empire” bit. Wouldn’t control of Aden actually be control of everything… oil, oil money and money… Isn’t control of the port like control of the jugular… If squeezed the whole system starves… and, if squeezed long & hard enough it dies… Sounds like a bad idea to let Aiden get stolen..
Sets a bad precedent encouraging more theft.. What say you Bianca…???
This is the reasoning. Our elite believes in 19th century concept of span of control. Thus, US and a wannabe regional power Saidi Arabia are hell bent to control Bab el Madeb, the entrance to Red Sea. On the other side — our base at Djubuti. There is really no way to prevent it — and I do not know that anybody wants to. It is more of a threat to Egypt, the capacity to block the entry would cripple Egypt’s Suez canal economy. But the fact is — this cannot be stopped. The goal was to keep the country — a Clinton artificial creation — in one peace and control the independent mountain Zaidi Yemen by a more pliable and privileged Sunni of the Siouth. This way — the control of Aden would have come with the control if the entire coast from Red Sea to Oman. Not something Oman was looking forward to. But they underestimated the abilities of northern tribes and totally underestimated the money behind the south to push for secession. North does not want any part of south — and would be happy to be left alone.
South is in trouble as Saudi invented Al-Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula is in the capital of south, Al-Mukkala. But big business money interests in Saudi Arabia call that region home — the ancient Hadhramouth. And already invested heavily in its development. With the battle stalemated and north more often on the offensive against Saudi territory — time may be ripe for a deal. North wants to be unschakled from South, and South wants Saudi Al-Qaeda out. They both must give one thing that is valuable — and that is former British colony, the city of Aden. It is an important refueling stop from Indian Ocean towards Suez. And control of Bab el Mandeb.
I do not think giving Aden is a loss. Given the political cohesion of the people in the north — infiltrating ISIS cannot work. A new reconstituted Hadhramouth would not –as it did not in much in history — have issues with north. Saudi Arabia needs to control its juvenile princes — lest it forget that a big chunk of its workforce are immigrant workers from Yemen. And that it cannot win on the ground because over 90% of its soldiers are not citizens — but residents, many from various countries — including a large number of Arabs from East Africa, majotity of whom are Hadhramouth descendants.
Soudi Arabia counted on the might of power projection of US in the small Yemen. And thought that one in the bag. Arrogance of power is amazing. They know Yemen and should have known that weapons are part of male daily attire. Daily, one goes through crowded markets bunping into guys with machine guns over shoulders, and rows of ammunition neatly strung accross chests. They are agricultural population with excellent nutrition. I ought to know. I did a study with a Swedish anthropologist in Yemen on the midwifery, child resring and family nutrition in early seventies. Then I wotked in Sana’a for Food and Agriculture Organization, World Health Organization. And UNDP. People of Yemen are worlds apart from Saudi Arabia — where I visited frequently. They are open and respectful, never had I encountered a person that was not pleasant and willing to talk to a foreign woman. Barefooted shepherds with short wave radios listening to stations around the world in Arabic. There were no murders, assaults and rapes, or abductions. Kids could get liost — and one never feared that they would be harmed. Those societies are now gone — for ed into glibalization, debt, imports. Globalists could not care less what they destroy in the name of progress. So instead of letting societies evolve, gradually assimilate the diverse material and cultural influences — IMF and the liberal world order smashed all in its path that was not well protected against its militant liberation.
Remembering those years in Yemen is painfull in the light of genocide perpetrated by the arrogant. And against the same peple that has to flee Saudi Arabia due to persecution over ine thousand years ago. Having found refugee in forbidding mountains — they created a unique culture, unique architecture and a consentual form of confederate governance.
I say give arrogant and ignorant what they wanted in the first place. And then find allies and friends — as small and weak cannot survive today. With UN abandoning slowly the right of sovereign states to protect its population — and using the mantra of universal human rights trumping states, their laws and intitutions, we all have no rights to protection. Once one shot is fired by any group — the state is declared abolished and a leader a brutal dictator. The group or groups need not prove that they have a political goal or a demand. They are instantly declared on equal footing with the “regime” and from that point on — state and its atmy are only a FACTION. This terminology is consciously pushed by media – and subconscesly copied by others. Unless a vulnerable country and its population find a protection — .they will become failed states. Yemen may get a chance to avoid the fate.
WTF… !!!!! What happened to.my comment… ?????
None of your comments are caught in spam filters. Going back a month, none of your comments have been deleted (at least in the “news” section” — I haven’t checked the “original commentary” or “blog” sections yet).
There is no such thing as the government of technocrats. Each member is owned by someone. This is an equivalent of an occupational authority. Hard to imagine Yemen accepting — but will go through motions. The sooner Saudi Arabia allows the country to go back to pre-Clinton mess, the better.
Thusly, another major war’s outcome is fast forwarded to the results of the American presidential election; because Hillary Clinton would oppose a partition, and Trump would likely allow it, if Iran is kept out of South Yemen. Iranian influence in Yemen is bad for everyone, and bad for peace.
The unification in 1990 was artificial. It was an artifact of Western pressures, not of Yemen’s internal politics.
For hundreds of years, the two parts of Yemen were not only separate, but hostile. They are two better-watered places, separated by a dry region with far less population density, over which they fight.
The British furthered that rivalry for a hundred years, as their deal to protect their colonial port of Aden from the rivalries of its hinterland.
It should be no surprise that such a recent and artificial union did not work out. It only served outsiders.
Long term, in Eurasia, Yemens future lies with a unified Arabian Peninsula free of the tribal house of Saud, Al Sabah, the Emirates, Oman and so forth; all the way to the borders of Palestine, Syria and Iran.