Russian President Vladimir Putin has officially rejected a request from his nation’s Defense Ministry to endorse a resumption of Russian airstrikes against the Syrian city of Aleppo, after 10 straight days of no Russian airstrikes being conducted.
Russia launched a brief ceasefire in Aleppo last week, and extended it for four days. Even after it officially expired, they have not resumed strikes against the city, with officials saying they want to convince Western nations to separate the moderate rebel factions within East Aleppo from the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front.
So far that’s not been working so well, as indeed separating the two was the primary goal of a weeklong ceasefire a month ago, and a public US call to separate never amounted to anything. After that, the idea appears to have been given up on by the US, and Russia has also sought Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s influence on the more moderate factions.
As the rebel factions are launching a new offensive trying to brief the Aleppo siege, the Russian defense ministry has gone to the unusual step of publicly announcing their request to Putin, and Putin’s very public rejection may suggest there is some debate within the Russian leadership on how to proceed.
Maybe the single way to make the world better is to _just stop air strikes_?
Terrorists and their sponsors do not need airstrikes to strike any country with small weapons. All you need is to bring in thousands of people, and preposition explosive factories, weapons, ammunition and other supplies in various warehouses, farms, and densely populated city blocks. And in Syria, for example, after the fall of Saddam Hussein, millions of Irqis came as refugees. They received help through charities, many of them Saudi. But Saudi charities came also with the preachers/leaders of Wahhbi sect, anointed destitute people as Salafis — the true believers, to make it easier for them to bear the depravity. But the marriage of convenience took place — Saudi and US desire to topple one more secular regime in the Middle East, and bring in anther Gulf style theocracy in the shape of a caliphate. So, poverty, and the promise of regular pay — to feed families, along with the prepositioned military gear– brought us the Syrian armed terrorist violence within a week from protests against austerity. Protests were the pretext for terrorists attacks across the country, with police and military being utterly unprepared and quickly overwhelmed.
From then on, Western bullhorn kept on blaring about “rebels” and the brutal dictator. The story heard in Iraq or Libya. So, the good head choppers were declared democratic forces, and thus, Assad “must go”.
So, let us stop air strikes. Thus, all the population that has been for years under the harsh rule of religious fanatics, people who are heavily on drugs, supplies by Saudi Arabia. Drugs that make them violent and without compassion. They are on high daily doze, and after years of such lifestyle, many are psychotic. So, let us stop air strikes. Let’s get down to the peace business, with all these drugged terrorists getting a man in suit, delivered from Saudi Arabia or from us, to decide just who gets to keep how much territory. And lets divide Syria accordingly. Anybody asking people? No. Anybody caring to find out if people would rather live in territory protected by Syrian Army, or under any — name one — terrorist group.
So, we have the dilemma. You cannot get them out if they do not wish to get out, and for as long as somebody will have to feed the population — with them taking a first cut of every bite. And for as long as SOMEBODY will smuggle arms to them — they can stay on those farms they took, large apartment buildings, about twenty city blocks of Aleppo, a college in Hama, some military barracks in Ghuta, etc. etc. etc.
If the arming will stop — the war stops. But it is NOT in SOMEBODY’S
Oct 28, 2016 Is the US a banana republic? – Putin [Valdai, Part 1 of 2]
Vladimir Putin’s annual address at the Valdai Discussion Club, held in Sochi, Russian Federation. This year hosted by Professor of Russian Studies, Timothy Colton, at Harvard University. All leading journalists as well as scholars, both Russian and international, are invited to attend – whether they do is another matter.
https://youtu.be/Xs40t57rcBk
I suspect Putin knows something we don’t. Some larger plan must be in the works. Putin’s true strategy often only becomes clear after months of confusion. I only hope he wises up on Turkey and the Saudis. Neither one of them can ever be trusted.
I agree. Just I hope that Saudi Arabia gets its Arabian winter, and the quarrelsome princes, rich oligarchs and a military of mostly foreign mercenaries — finally all end up in a big bang. As for Turkey, as much as it is unpalatable to many, the choice Syria and Iraq have is the following. Once more settle for the tutelage of EU and American forces in the terrorist-infested Sunni areas, or accept Turkey as an occupying force in those regions. In Syria, that would mean a stretch along Turkey border, and the region between Euphrates and Tigris, on border with Iraq. That would prevent unification of Kobani/Erbil areas. If Turkey gets to be the ground force in taking Al-Raqqa, then Kurds are out, and the other way around. If Kurds prevail — Kurdish state is born, and US Kosovo style base will be there to guarantee its existence, just next to other Kurdish areas in Turkey, Iraq and Iran. In Iraq, Turkey wants to be on the ground in Mosul, but also to protect Iraqi Kurds — that have solid relationship with Turkey. Bottom line for Turkey is to prevent US/EU tutelage over Sunni Iraq with Mosul as center. While this is not palatable to Iraq, it also has a weak hand, just like Syria. Baghdad does not have any way to guarantee the obedience of Sunni population with most of its army — by necessity — being Shia. In fact, in Syria where most of Army is Sunni — still, it is not trusted in areas where ISIS is today. Population is afraid of RETRIBUTION. It all boils down to — strong regional security guarantees among neighboring states — Iraq, Syria and Turkey, or accept the internationalization of Sunni areas of Iraq, and separate, international administration of Mosul. And in Syria, Damascus would have to choose between Kosovo style Kurdish state with US flag planted on its base, or Turkish occupation of today’s ISIS territory. Tough times ahead, politically.
Putin is waiting to see if Trump wins..
Based on a rhetoric — I think he is giving US extra time to think about it. So, no surprises. The reason I think so is the announcement of Kerry’s message to Aleppo groups. He had spoken directly to them — telling them that they need to separate from Al-Nusra, or else face the consequences. This was declared when Russia and US signed a deal on joint battle against Al-Nusra in Aleppo. Deal was broken, as we know. Why, I am still not sure. Murky are the ways of terror organization — as Putin said in Valdai — they are cunning and do not count on controlling them. It may turned out that Kerry did not have full information, as CIA is largely privatized, and for all we know, other countries can through the warren of corporations — have influence on CIA operations for their purpose. It may have transpired that all those “other groups'” that Secretary was talking to — are not independent at all. And that all are working under the command of Al-Nusra. It is possible that some CIA are stuck inside surrounded Aleppo. It is all not just possible, but likely. Or is Israel involved? As far as I remember, General Petraeus have in a congressional hearing recommended that we arm — Al-Qaeda, that is Al-Nusra. If they “break” with Al-Qaeda. Funny man. It is all the same purse, Saudi purse. Congress was shocked, but I had a distinct feeling that he is not recommending , that this is already a fact — and that letting the cat out of a bag, was just necessary to facilitate further work in that direction. So, the abrupt break in US-Russia cooperation was somehow related to SOMEBODY telling Kerry that this cannot be done. And the question that begs to be answered is — why was Kerry allowed to go this far? The only answer I can think of is, nobody thought Russia would agree to that schema. Well, they were surprised, and the only way out was to hit Syrian base — to make a point, and then let Al-Zika hit humanitarian convoy — to keep the narrative going.
Things are now complicated on all sides. Syria is concerned about Turkey’s advance to Al-Bab, and is asking for Turkey to stop flying. Russia stopped flying, and even coalition over ISIS land stopped flying. Basically, something must have happened — the no fly zone over Syria — is somehow at the heart of it. US plane was intercepted, and US protest over “unprofessional” Russian pilot, etc. But an apology was issued to Russian MOD, today, nonetheless. Russia will have hard time to mediate between Turkey and Syria. Syria is in weak position — and may not have thought through all the implications. So, there is a pause — except the terrorists are trying to breach out of the encirclement, and Syrian army today had quite a surprise at the ferocity of counterattack.
Is Russia giving extra time to US to accept the bleak future for their “good” terrorists , as they did not step out of Al-Nusra’s embrace? Or is a bigger issue on the table. I do not think that whatever is on the table — is going to be very much for either Russia or Syria. Turkey has a great stake in the whole thing, as if Kurds are allowed to be the ground forces in the Raqqa Governorate, this will spell big trouble. Namely, Turkey is trying to supplant the need for having EU/US tutelage over portions of Syria and Iraq. If Kurds get their connected state, this tutelage is practically guaranteed. Russia may be reminding Syria of the need to compromise with Turkey — as larger issues are at stake. Russia needed to give everyone a pause, to think where they are going, and to cut deals. While in particulars I am not sure what is at stake — it is quite sure that the pause is for a reason, and a message.
I would never trust anything, and opinion or any word ANY american says.
I think old habits do not die easily. Some in US government still think it is the era of Indian Treaties.