US officials are making clear that they intend to invade Raqqa really soon, with the ISIS capital scheduled to be attacks in the middle of the ongoing offensive against the city of Mosul. But while the Mosul invasion has a coalition of at least sort of friendly factions participating. No such coalition exists for Raqqa.
Indeed, the US has insisted that the Kurdish YPG will be the overwhelming majority of the force, because they’re the only force available in the area with enough fighters to realistically attack the city. Yet Turkey has been outright livid over this, and has repeatedly demanded that the Kurds not be allowed anywhere near Raqqa.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insists his country will be invading Raqqa, along with the YPG-held city of Manbij, very soon, and while they’ll doubtless also do some fighting against ISIS on the way, it’s pretty clear this is going to include some heavy fighting with the Kurds.
That’s likely to complicate, and potentially outright derail, the invasion of Raqqa, as the Kurdish YPG can’t fight ISIS and Turkey at the same time, and the US seems wholly incapable of keeping Turkey from launching attacks on the Kurds in the middle of anti-ISIS operations.
Arm them all, NOW
US constantly has a death wish. Any adults in the vicinity of White House? This one should be a no brainer. US has strained relationship with Turkey. However, it will be a GOOD idea, not to lose it altogether. For one, US does not really need to be in Syria. And US for sure does not need another permanent headache, like a Kurdish state within a state, a permanent trip wire in the Middle East. The juvenile neocons love wars — they can start them, and have zero clue how to end them, using regional factors, without risking US lives, money or long term interests.
So, easy problem. Let Turkey take all the non-Kurdish areas (including those that Kurds took by ethnic cleansing, like Manbij) along its borders, as well as the entire Raqqa region, not just town. There is a small Syrian government outpost in the area, a simple case of resolving with Damascus. Everything on the other side of Euphrates will be Syrian responsibility to defeat pockets of ISIS. Not a big problem. Turkey can stay as occupying force to stabilize the area on the border with both Iraq, and its own border. This is predominantly Sunni population, and many of them are Iraqi refugees that came here following the fall of Saddam Hussein, and then following the expansion of ISIS in Iraq. They will feel more comfortable with Turkey as an occupying force, until the rest of Syria has been freed up from Al-Qadea. And If US has any sense left, it will keep quiet about East Aleppo, where Al-Qaeda is holed up, keeping populace hostage. Once Al-Qaeda, or Al-Nusra whatever name one prefers , is defeated, all other groups will fold. They are under their command (Army of Conquest, for example). With Turkey and Russia in Syria, a political process can start, without any need for US or other White West presence. So, instead of complicating life, US can get Turkey involved to solve problems, to cooperate with all factors on the ground, and get things DONE. Peace is the goal, political transition, reconstruction. Russia and others are talking Marshall plan. So, let them go for it.
In Iraq, US is up to its eyeballs. Also, result of too much finesse and too little common sense. If the objective is to stabilize the region, and return it to commerce and reconstruction — then US roll up the sleeves and stop playing Valley Girl. Peshmerga Kurds and Turkey are the best of palls. Thus, immediately US should stop supporting PKK in Sinjan. Let PKK down the river — they are not “balancing” they are hurting our chances to be a leader, not playing likes on Facebook. Turkey, far from trying to bar it from role in Mosul, its role should be a large one. Baghdad knows that it has zero chances of having its own boots on the ground in Mosul after liberation. It is a large city, and Kurds are not welcome there. So, who? Naturally, after breaking back of ISIS, let Turkey do the ground operations. Because the population would welcome them, and thus cooperate. Unfortunately for others, Kurds need to take stronger role in Kirkuk, as it was clear from the surprise ISIS attack, it was not safe enough. Once the areas of post-war administrative borders of forces on the ground are established, and rules set up with Baghdad, US can help Baghdad short term to insure its security — and leave. It should be up to the region, Turkey, Iran, Russia, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and Israel — to work with each other to secure stable and peaceful Iraq and Syria.
US loses influence by being IN THE MIDDLE, instead of working with the region to develop regional security. That is what LEADER will do, not just a bully who wants to be the biggest bully in the sandbox.