While Western officials continue to present ISIS as a shrinking threat, the faction continues to expand worldwide, launching several major attacks across the world over the past week. The least deadly attacks, ironically, might be among the most significant.
Over the weekend, three coordinated bombings were carried out in Saudi Arabia, hitting Qatif, Jeddah, and Medina. The attacks killed a total of four people, tiny compared to attacks in Dhaka, Istanbul, and especially Baghdad in recent days.
This is different though, because this is Saudi Arabia. Though ISIS has recruited and sought funding in the Kingdom, but attacks have been pretty rare. The Medina attack, targeting a hugely important mosque in one of Islam’s holiest cities, represents a major escalation.
The fear is that this is just the beginning too, with many seeing the timing and targets signaling the beginning of ISIS launching a campaign in earnest in Saudi Arabia. While ISIS is always trying to expand its operations into more countries, this one is different, because once again, this is Saudi Arabia.
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I doubt to what extent we should call this ISIS. Robert Pape points out that ISIS to a large extent is about (re)claiming territory in Iraq, then Syria. Religion is only secondary. Their suicide attacks serve this purpose of defending their territory. Attacking Saudi Arabia looks more like an Al Qaeda goal: liberating them from the US and its ally the Saudi roals, or retaliation against interference with Al Qaeda in Yemen: Al Qaeda there benefited a lot from the war in Yemen and this increased the conflicts with the Saudis.