After nine days of more or less constant airstrikes against targets inside Yemen, Saudi Arabia announced today that they are abandoning their “ceasefire” in Yemen, and that it is because the Shi’ite Houthis are violating the terms.
The ceasefire was initially meant to facilitate peace talks, though fighting never really slowed down, and indeed Saudi-backed forces occupied several cities over the course of the nine day period. The peace talks ended without any real progress.
It is unclear what, if any, differences there will be in the Yemen war without the ceasefire, though it will likely mean that the Saudis won’t feel the need to publicly blame the Houthis every time they unilaterally launch an airstrike on a city.
In talking up the Houthi violations, the Saudis cited missiles fired from Yemen into Saudi territory. Such strikes have happened off and on throughout the war, killing a handful of people.
The timing is obviously connected with the execution of the Shi'ite cleric. The Houthis have seriously embarrassed the Saudi military, making effective use of antitank weapons and even attacking Saudi border posts, and it is clear that the Saudis intend to try to put an end to the sinkhole of resources that Yemen has become for them. The big question is whether the House of Saud intends to provoke war directly with Iran. If this were to happen, the clandestine Israeli support the Saudis enjoy in Yemen would continue and expand, and would also allow Netanyahoo the opportunity to carry out his long cherished dreams of attacking Iranian nuclear facilities. The delivery of Russian S-300 air defense systems to Iran, however, would make air attacks a dangerous undertaking. The shrinking window of opportunity before the S-300s are installed interestingly coincides with the current Saudi-Iranian tensions.