Participants at the Vienna talks agreed largely on efforts to come to some sort of ceasefire between the Syrian government and secular rebels, leading to a political transition. A lot of details are to be worked out, though some diplomats say that the Friday attacks in Paris could add considerable momentum to the effort.
Officials have suggested that the goal is to come to some sort of deal by year’s end, leading to elections within 18 months. This was largely Russia’s proposal, though other nations are disputing Russia’s call for free elections, demanding to limit participation from President Assad and other top figures in the existing government.
Secretary of State John Kerry’s comments suggest the US is still on board in theory but not so much in practice, as he called the effort to get a deal done by year’s end “pushing it” and suggested urgency wouldn’t make the talks necessarily go faster.
President Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin also held some talks on the sidelines at the G20 summit, agreeing on a “Syrian-led” transition, though so far no Syrian factions have been allowed to participate in the talks, and there has been much debate over which factions would eventually be labeled worthy of invitation.
Lebanon has not held a census since 1932, because they are afraid of the answer.
A real election in Syria has the same problem.
There are two possible outcomes: 1) Assad actually could win, since he is backed by almost all minorities and by the secular Westernized part of the Sunnis; 2) the jihadis actually could win, since they are almost all the rest not Assad. We don't really know their relative strengths. We do know there is absolutely nobody who might win whom we would want to win. The non-Assad Westernized Sunnis are a tiny number.
It is hard to say which is more horrifying for the West, Assad proving they were wrong all along, or the jihadis proving they were wrong all along.
Noe of this is of any value to Putin. If Assad goes, whether now or in 18 months, he'll lose his precious naval base (or so he seems to beleive). If Assad stays and not merely wins an election but wins one that is internationally certified as free and fair (which will be very difficult with Putin's forces in the country), then Putin is bogged down forever more propping him up. I don't see the Arab world accepting a Russian colonial protectorate in Syria, so the fight will just go on. And, of course, any agreement to which ISIS is not a party isn't worth the paper it's written on. In practice, there is really no workable solution other than Putin abandoning his naval base (which is militarily useless anyway), Assad setting himself up as an eye doctor in Moscow and a completely fresh start being made in Syria. The obstacle to that solution is, of course, Putin.