Talk of increased Russian military involvement in Syria has the various rebel factions simultaneously conceding that it’s a setback to their civil war, and one that’s liable to extend the conflict many additional years, while threatening huge Russia casualties and “another Afghanistan” for the troops being deployed.
The rebels are trying to shoehorn the model of the 1979-1989 Soviet occupation of Afghanistan on the war, pushing the idea of forming a new mujahideen to combat the Russians. The differences are stark, however, as this war has been ongoing for years before there was a hint of increased Russian involvement, and ISIS is the major power in Syria at this point, at least from a territorial perspective.
Indeed, the increased involvement is at this point largely speculative, with Russia denying that anything they’re doing is really “new” but rather just a fulfillment of existing military deals with Syria. The “escalation” has been heavily hyped by US officials, who have lashed Russia even though they’re nominally both opposed to ISIS.
The Islamist faction, led by al-Qaeda, which has been trying to push into Latakia is blaming Russia for the increased resistance they are encountering, saying it shows that Russia is “taking the lead,” though most of the battles there haven’t been against the Syrian military in the first place, but rather against local Alawites, supportive of the government, who rightly believe they’ll be wiped out if al-Qaeda seizes their coastal homeland.
Russia’s primary interest in Syria has always been their naval base in Tartus, which could be imperiled if the Syrian government is completely wiped out, yet the claims by secular FSA rebels that the Russian government is opposed to a “political solution” is a flat out lie, as Russia has been trying to get the FSA and the other rebels to talk political settlement for years, with those rebels ruling out anything short of complete regime change.
Some of those meetings occurred as recently as last month, and an attempt by Russia to organize “unity government” talks collapsed quite recently on the refusal of the FSA and other rebels to even take part. Though the US at time gave lip service to the “unity” idea, they have similarly insisted recently that any “deal” needs to amount to full regime change, ousting Assad and his inner circle in favor of pro-US figures.
That’s where the big problem lies, as Russia believes, and probably rightly so, that installing a pro-US regime will cost them their naval base, the only Russian base in the Mediterranean.
Installing a puppet government in Syria will do more than cost Russia its naval base. It will lead to carnage and chaos. It'll will govern no one and will be wiped out by "IS" in a matter of months.
The U.S. has made some negative comments about Russia but it appears the U.S. and their European allies are desperate for an answer to the massive refugee crisis. Putin once again is offering to bail out the West. Russia appears to have at least the tacit approval of the U.S. for a major escalation in preparation for ground operations against ISIS.
I don't see how "Putin is offering to bail out the West". More fighting will aggravate the refugee problem, not solve it. A quick defeat for Putin and Assad would quieten things down but Putin has too much to lose to give up without a long, hard fight. Putin destroying himself in Syria will be very helpful for the EU and a long drawn-out refugee crisis will force the Member States to create a strong border patrol force but I don' t think that's what this blogger means by "bailing out".
The article appearing tonight at AntiWar, " NYT erases CIA involvement in Syria", is mysteriously being blocked?
Does this means that the US will start to sleep with Al-Qaeda again?
I'm sure some officials are going to say, we did it in Afghanistan and
we can do it in Syria….wait for it.
Already happened. Petraeus himself said it.
The Russian naval base is overblown as the Russian interest in Syria. Russia has many other interests.
That naval base is rusted, overgrown with weeds, silted up, and was never much of a base anyway. Its dock couldn't take any of the medium or bigger Russian ships, and it had no repair facilities. It was little more than a place to anchor offshore. Most important, the Russians never spent any money to make it more, and lately have not spent any money to improve that.
The US freaks out about Russia having that naval base. The Russians never put any money into that idea themselves.
Look elsewhere for the interests that led Russia to send billions in weapons over many years, then recently to forgive the price and send billions more.
I don't think anyone sees the naval base as a threat, other than to Putin himself! I don't know if the above description of the base is accurate but it rings true and would be typical of the slovenly way in which Russia's rickety military forces operate. The base is militarily useless but is a prestige object in Putin's delusions of imperial glory. For that reason' he's obliged to defend it and to prop up Assad so as not to lose it. It would have been interesting to see what other interests Russia has in Syria other than delusions of great power status.
Clearly, the pro-Putin faction sees Putin's intervention as a huge blunder and is scared silly of a new Afghanistan, which, of course, is precisely what is going to happen.
ISIS-Al-Queada and all other such barbarism are the threat to entire regions, we said it long time ago, USG is not going to do anything about it simply because USG idea is not about democratization of Middle East, It never was, if that was the case USG would start forcing Turkey, a NATO member to stop Erdogan regime support for these barbarians. Islamization of Middle East and Africa is the main idea here and Obama doctrine is based on that, Nobel peace committee didn't pay him million of dollars for nothing, the main idea is about to separate people by religious in Middle East which is reason for ISIS growing so fast. Christianity or other beliefs are not supposed to live in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon nor in Libya or other African countries, ISIS-Saudis-Wahabbis use the moment to gain and expend their religious domination because Hillary Clinton and USG, among other provided them with political support, which among other is the reasons for USG and some European governments especially David Cameron demanding for Syrian government to be changed with their choice of religious governing systems whom are supported by Saudis-GCC and Erdogan regime in Turkey.
September 22nd, 2015 U.S. Will Station New Nuclear Weapons in Germany Against Russia
Germany’s ZDF public television network headlines on Tuesday September 22nd,“New U.S. Atomic Weapons to Be Stationed in Germany,” and reports that the U.S. will bring into Germany 20 new nuclear bombs, each being four times the destructive power of the one that was used on Hiroshima. Hans Kristensen, the Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, says, "With the new bombs the boundaries blur between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons.
http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/20…
USG have been beating the war drums with Russia in last 8 years, if not longer. USG, this one or the hidden ones, doing-practicing everything inhuman or other related ideas to prolong the Syrian, Iraq war due to a established goal which is the removal of the Syrian legitimate government, they know that their inhuman idea is listed as yet another political "intellectual" lost of mind, like those idiots who brought upon the Iraqi people the Iraq war. These governments intentionally destroy mush as they can of Syrian, Iraqi and other nations infrastructures by helping barbarism to grow faster, these barbarians are the latest and last politica options presented in last 20 years or so by these intellectuals, their loses, as they have proclaimed, is because of Russia, which indicates the fact that they are rather for establishing ISIS barbarism in Syria and Iraq rather then helping to defeat it.