Yemen’s Shi’ite Houthi rebels, which dominate much of the northwest of the country, including the capital city of Sanaa, has been expanding its control south along the Red Sea coast. They’re moving inland now.
Houthi fighters pushed into the key al-Qaeda stronghold of Manasih, in the Bayda Province today, chasing off both the fighters of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Sunni tribal factions which fought alongside them.
The Houthis aren’t fighting alone either, as the Yemeni army has reportedly been launching airstrikes and artillery attacks against the tribal factions in the region, hoping to use the Shi’ite advance as a way to weaken AQAP.
That may well work, but it’s risky strategy, as the Houthis themselves are holding many of the seats of power of the Yemeni government, and have an eye toward making themselves a significant part of any future government.
How is this a risky strategy? They do eye future government. But they also will allow former independent region — "South Yemen", or Hadramouth get independence. They have a deal with them. Who among Sunis will object to that? Yemen was Shiia imamate, and only after the Naserite revolution led by military, Sunis got some power. After annexing South, that is 100% Suni, central government in Sana'a took advantage of the Suni power to disadvantage Shiia. Many a battles were lead, including one in 1973-74, when many Shiia "fighters" some still children, were exectuted publicly on Sana'a square. With the FINANCIAL infusion into the Hadramauth region — mostly by wealthy Saudis that do not particularly like Saudi ruling family, cities like Mukkalla were transformed from sleepy towns of Sinbad the sailor era, into modern towns. Financial support for separating Hadramouth from the clutches of Sana'a central government changed the prospects not just for the South, but also for the North. For the first time, artificial central government in Sana'a finds itself without political support — including support of city dwellers, like Sana'a, Taiz or Hodeida. Impoverishment of cities lead to the strength of regions — or tribes if you will. Houthis had the tradition of rulers, and were the glue to take advanantage of the situation. Who does NOT like it? Saudi Arabia and US. And who does the Al-Qaeda in Yemen ( or famous AKIP) work for? For Saudi intelligence. And of course, they are the ones that willt try to stop the convergence of interests — urban dwellers, Houthi tribes and Southern independence seekers. With the combination of money from weathy expats, misery of towns, and the historic grievances of Houtis — it will be hard for make believe "Al-Qaeda" to be able to stop them. Unless, of course, somebody starts screaming "human rights' and drones start defending the crumbling Sana'a regime. It may be too late for that. But you never know. Somehow we always find ways to spend more money then we got.