With the Yemeni government all but irrelevant at this point, the nation’s southwest is shaping up to become a major battleground, as the Shi’ite Houthi rebels expand south along the Red Sea coast and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) challenges them over the region.
After seizing the capital city, the Houthis spent quite some time consolidating their gains therein, but this week they began expanding again, taking key cities along the coast, and running headlong into AQAP when they got too close.
Now, AQAP is the one looking to expand, today capturing the southwestern town of Udain, burning the police station and attacking the local government offices.
The capture of Udain makes the Ibb Province the main battleground for AQAP versus Houthi violence, as the Houthis had taken the Ibb capital earlier in the day.
AQAP wasn’t done, however, overrunning the al-Adeen area and seizing a military base there, as well as robbing a local bank in the mountainous coastal region. The Ibb Province isn’t in either faction’s heartland, but it is close enough in both cases that the fight over the sphere of influence could spill over into more densely populated areas.
Al-Qaeda here is nothing more then Saudi outfit — it was set up by Saudi intelligence assets, and are utilizing unrest and the state of civil war to divide and conquer. But it will remain irrelevant. For one, Siite Houthis are on good terms with the furious Sana'a residents that were hoodwinked by US and Gulf, and defanged them by keeping president's sons and uncles in power. So, Shiia and Sunnis have no issue with each other, but with the central government and their drones. Also, secessionism in the south is supported by Houti and Sunni tribes of Yemen, and it looks like they are controling the province. They are trasfering control of oil production to their administration, and notifying producers. Saudia does not like it — and so here comes Al-Qaeda to attack Ibb. In mountanous Yemen, main road going from capital Sana'a across Ibb to Taiz, and then to Aden and the secession minded Hadramouth — is strategically important. But they will not be able to fight off tribal groups, or to sow the seeds of mistrust among them. Predict that Saudi Arabia will lose here, as some of the Gulf states would rather see Yemen split up in North and South, with tribal control as it was before the moranic central government made everyone poor. Neighboring Oman would not mind seeing Hadramouth independent, and in many ways add strenght to already fairly independent minded Oman.