There’s still a lot of crazy rhetoric flying around about the potential of a protracted Russian invasion of Europe and a lot of threats of sanctions, but as a practical matter, the annexation of Crimea appears to be a done deal, and more or less settled.
President Obama seems resigned to Crimea having happened, and conceded today that Russia is “unlikely to surrender” Crimea on the basis of US demands. He also seemed to put off the idea of further sanctions, barring any Russian invasions of Ukraine.
Obama also felt the need to reiterate that the US isn’t going to attack the Crimean Peninsula over the matter, saying the US will only act “defensively” on behalf of other NATO members, and not just because Ukraine’s interim government doesn’t like Crimean secession.
With Russian officials repeatedly ruling out any other military advances, the signs are that Crimea’s secession and annexation was a one-off deal based on the surprise regime change in Ukraine, and not a prelude to World War 3.
Like i said before, much hot air, MSM McCartyism, threats and unprofessional schoolgirl behaviour such as Samatha Powers in the security council aside, Barrack "crystal clear red line" Obombah and his gang of cold war minions eventually would back off and chicken out. Much as they had to do in Georgia and Syria. Russia´s decisiveness is unmistakable.
Russia is dead serious on having yet another drang nach osten anywhere near it´s borders. it´s not going to happen without a major fight since all such western endeavours since the Swedes, Napoleon and Hitler where and is an existential threat to Russia.WTF did they expect? The US imposed Nazi junta has already started to implode and im sure these brotherly people can sort things out and put the US conjured WW2 genie back in the bottle.
It just goes to show how crazy the US has become. Anyone paying attention to anything other than Wall Street's crooked media had figured this headline out over a week ago. But given the general insanity of American rhetoric that says Russia is about to 'invade' Europe because Russia just 'invaded' a region that was Russian on the day George Washington first took the oath to be President, I guess its a good thing to make this as clear as possible to people.
How would Americans feel if they heard a foreign leader frothing in the mouth and screaming about Hitler and war and invasions and aggression because they said America had 'invaded' Massachusetts. The Crimea has been a part of Russia longer than Massachusetts has been a state.
As well as, getting and keeping a 'warm water port' has been a Russian strategic objective also since before the Shots Heard Round the World at Lexington and Concorde. Did anyone expect Russia to just surrender a port that's been a strategic goal of Russia for longer than America has been a country?
I live in a nation that has a dangerous lack of education, is scary violent at home and abroad, and apparently dumber than pet rocks.
Putin is going to get a friendly government back in Kiev, eventually.
The German bankers are of course going to impose horrible 'austerity measures' on the Ukraine. They are already coming. Pensions and payments are going to be cut or eliminated, and prices are going to go through the roof. The eastern Ukraine could be Russia's now, with discontent drawing the Russians in. But Putin is refusing this gambit and playing a bigger game. He's waiting for either a future round of elections, or maybe just more protests in Kiev, but this time as everyone is upset knowing they were screwed and that their government just put their lives at the mercy of the German bankers.
At that time, this Kiev government, or its successor, is going to be so unpopular that the eastern Ukraine won't be the only region protesting. The end result a year or two down the road is a pro-Russian regime in Kiev.
Or, the Nato military will have their Ukrainian puppets do what their Egyptian puppets are currently doing, which is kill hundreds or thousands of people in the streets to keep the pro-US, pro-NATO regime in power. That's when Putin will discover his "Responsibility to Protect", and the Ukraine will drop into his lap as everyone except the nasty neocons realizes that someone needs to stop the carnage.
Great comment. Not only Russia, but Germany as well will watch on. Germany is auditioning for the leader of Europe, and Obama will knight Merkel — finally. He actually has no choice. He has been spun around, pivoted and re-pivoted in his Asia Pacific attempt at exterting leadersip, just to find out that Japan is not ready to play the role of meak democracy, needing US protection from big bad communist China. They will do their own provoking of China, thank you. And inconveniently, South Korea and Japan fighting over some rocks and history. We are being set up in Europe as well. Russia and Germany are "fighting"? We are being set up like idiots — and geriatric neocons are still there dig holes deeper. How much can this go on?
“Interim government” is the wrong term. The correct term is junta. The us didn’t sponsor the junta for billions of dollars and hundreds of lives so that elections could be moved up 7 months.
What happens will not be elections, but”elections”.
If occupy had been 30% fascist thugs from the kkk and such groups, and those groups had overthrown Obama, does anyone think Obama would be insisting that the junta was a constitutional democracy, and sending it food and weapons?
The western war for all of Ukraine is not over yet, but Crimea is a done deal for people of Crimea. USG did paid the old, Neo and ok'd fascism $5 billion dollars to start the process, yet for the regime to start their internal political and shooting, killing each other is in their feature. If you thought that USG-EU can only use the Saudis-barbarians-Islamic fascist in Syria, think again, USG-EU can and able to use street garbage from Sweden to Africa, they can and proven that they are in contact with all kind of mercenaries paying them few dollars here and there, as they have in Ukraine and in Syria paid by Saudis mercenaries, and in general by UAE to create wars where USG-EU governing body thinks that it will benefit from, these are prolonging wars or creating more of wars policies-doctrine by the Neo liberalism both here and there, if is not stopped, the Neo liberalism will grow into a true and functioning fascist regimes as every social political move by either side of Atlantic is paving the way for that idea.
Damn smart commentary, Lavista. I'll be looking for your postings in future. Don't be a stranger.
Putin's mid-range plan looks to be to keep the Russian military close by, as a warning that funny business will not be tolerated. Then, in just a few months the parliamentary elections will be held and the Ukrainian people will be able to choose between neo-N@zis and not-Neo-N@zis. Then the winners will appoint a govt. Presumably the N@zis will lose, and a more moderate, more "Ukrainian" (vs US Neo-N@zi puppet) govt will be elected.
Beyond that, Eastern Ukraine will probably see demonstrations and protests against the "interim" govt, and calls for referendums of their own for autonomy/independence/secession. If the "interim" govt, dominated by brownshirts, gets nasty, Putin will — as you've mentioned — have the justification for his own R2P intervention.
At the moment, things are fluid, but the strategic factors all remain in Putin's favor.
We will see.