As the fighting in Syria’s endless civil war continues to escalate, fear of the conflict turning regional has been replaced with a recognition that the conflict is already spreading across the border, and it’s only going to get worse.
Lebanon is feeling the most immediate effects, with Syrian rebels openly promising to invade Lebanon outright, and the Hezbollah militia sending large numbers of fighters to Syria to fight the rebels there. Lebanese President Michel Suleiman has urged Hezbollah to withdraw, fearing that if they continue their involvement it will just suck Lebanon even deeper in.
Iraq is feeling it on both sides too, with its own sectarian fighting straying back and forth across the border and both Shi’ite and Sunni militias head to Syria to get in on that war, in between fighting one another in Iraq. Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari warns the war is tearing the whole region apart, while reiterating his government’s attempts to stay neutral.
In both cases, the government’s desire to stay neutral is not universally shared, with Syria remaining a big “prize” that is up for grabs in the region, and the results of its war bound to have long-term, dramatic effects on its neighbors and everyone else in the Middle East.
This also puts direct pressure on the already fractured political dividing lines in Jordan and Turkey.
Jordan is divided between the old line Arabs of the King's base and the Palestinians, about equal in numbers now. Both oppose Israel, but only one supports the King. Both have ties to Assad, and both have problems with the rebels, but in different ways. The pro-American/Israel policy of the King risks unity against him by the two factions, the one thing that could overthrow him.
Turkey is fractured between Army/seculars and Erdogan's religious, but also has fractures with the Kurds and with the Alawites/Alewis of the border region in which the fighting is happening. All of the factions against Erdogan align with Assad, and even Erdogan's group fear jihadis and opposed them in Iraq and a potential Kurdistan. Again, the only thing Erdogan's enemies agree on is that he is wrong. That is happening at a time when Turks are in the streets about his not listening and acting arrogantly. Erdogan is as isolated on Syria as is the King of Jordan.
We are risking our friends in this foolishness.