Iraq’s parliament once again failed to reach any agreement on election laws today, leaving the legal basis for the January 16 election day very much in doubt, and after weeks of negotiations and growing US pressure, a delay is seeming more and more likely.
Despite President Obama’s claims to the contrary, such a delay would almost certainly have a disastrous affect on the already nebulous timetable for America’s pullout from Iraq.
President Obama has removed very few troops from Iraq since taking office and military officials have repeatedly suggested that the working plan was to conduct a new assessment a few months after the election and decide on a strategy to start reducing troops at a faster rate after that.
It is a fair question in the first place to wonder if the elections will really be a stabilizing event in Iraq, particularly after crooked elections in Afghanistan and neighboring Iran over the last several months have had the opposite effect. But if the elections are delayed over the question of allowing the public to vote on actual candidates instead of vague “lists,” the problem is compounded.
Perhaps lost in all of this is the referendum on the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which was required by law to be held in July of 2009 but somehow never materialized. It was suggested it might be held as part of the January vote but doesn’t seem to be getting serious discussion. The referendum would allow the Iraqi public to order the SOFA cancelled 12 months after the vote is certified, but a delay in the election would likely push the cancellation date past the December 2011 end of the pact, effectively making the vote meaningless.
Major Christopher Ghiz, Student, Command and General Staff College, U.S. Army Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas
I served two tours of duty in Iraq. Let me explain what will happen if the U.S. loses there….Al-Qa'ida will regain its foothold in Iraq and eventually gain enough support to overthrow the democratic government in Baghdad. With Iraq as a base of operations, the extremists will have the resources to export their message and terrorists acts throughout the middle east. The governments of Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt are undermined and will eventually collapse-replaced by fundamental extremist regimes. The overthrow of these governments will revive the Islamic Caliphate, establishing Baghdad as its capital and threatens Israel. Potentially, the extremists will use their vast oil wealth to procure and employ weapons of mass destruction. Attacks on the U.S. and Europe will increase.
The views expressed in this statement are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense or U.S. Government