The Euphrates River remains not only a vital lifeline across much of eastern Syria, but also an important boundary area, which has become increasingly more important throughout the Syrian War.
Early in the war, Turkey warned they would not let any Kurds cross to the west of the Euphrates, and that this amounted to a “red line.” Today,US-backed Kurdish YPG forces are saying they will not allow any Syrian military forces to cross to the eastern side of the river as part of their anti-ISIS push.
The river bisects the Deir Ezzor Province, which both the YPG and Syrian military are trying to recapture from ISIS. In trying to forbid the military crossing the river, the YPG is effectively trying to claim this entire region for themselves.
If successful, the YPG would have control over nearly a third of Syria by controlling that side of the river. The Syrian government is not going to accept that, however, saying they are preparing to fight any forces they have to to recapture the entire country, including US-backed groups.
Where this leaves the US is the big question, as generally speaking the US has supported attacking Syrian government forces to help the Kurds, but officially the US also supports keeping Syria in one piece, with a strong central government, an impossibility if the Syrian government loses that much of the country.
Let’s all not forget that the Kurds work for Israel (when it suits them), and this is a wonderful opportunity for Israel to keep the war going. The Kurds can switch patrons from the Americans to the Israelis, and the lovely war can carry on- permanently.
But it is too late, the SAA and Hezbollah crossed a day or so ago by using pontoons; wait and see a new pincer movement over the coming days.
Exactly right, notwithstanding Gavin Allen’s content-free snipe.
But as Carnaptious observes, the situation is complex. For the war to continue per Israel’s desire, there will have to be someone to protect the Kurds from Syrian efforts to recapture Syrian territory east of the Euphrates. Clearly that’s not going to be American soldiers. And without question, it’s not going to be Israeli soldiers. Show will the American Air Force attempt to bomb the Syrian Army on behalf of the Kurds? To answer this question it is absolutely essential that you have some notion of what the Russians will do. My guess is that the Russians will tell the Americans not to interfere. With how light a diplomatic touch this declaration will be presented to the Americans is an interesting question. But those S-400 radars are in place, and if American planes are “painted” with an S-400 targeting radar, the message will be clear. What will the Americans do then?
We shall see.
I agree. I do not see Kurds extending their already overextended forces. Kurds would have to litterallu occupy Arab regions to prevent Syria from moving after ISIS. Kurds do not have manpower to hold Raqqa, an Arab town, yet.
This should be the TOP STORY with big headlines.
There are major oilfields on the eastern side of the river that Syria will need to finance rebuilding their country. It’s highly unlikely that Syrian forces will just hand those oilfields over to the opposition. The Turks have made it clear they won’t allow creation of a large, oil rich Kurdistan on lands Turkey lays claim to. Anyone who thought the conflict in Syria was almost over hasn’t been paying attention. It’s going to get a whole lot worse, and soon.
Here’s an interesting news item that provides some insight into Israel’s enthusiastic support for creation of a Kurdish state. https://jewishwebsite.com/news/world/200000-jewish-kurds-headed-for-iraqi-kurdistan-howls-turkish-press/19817/
Of course. It is seen as fruition if Gods promise to to give them the land from Euphrates to Nile.
rt.com: Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Friday the Syrian army had already crossed.
“After a major victory near Deir al-Zor, the Syrian government army continues to clear Islamic State terrorists from the eastern regions of the country,” according to Zakharova.
“The suburbs of this provincial centre have been liberated. Advance units have successfully crossed the Euphrates and are holding positions on its eastern bank,” she added, without specifying the location.
They are. Ponton bridges are in olace, and ISIS ferries and ferry docks bombed. Kurds are counting on ISIS to hold Syrian Army back. I am not sure where will Kurds find manlpower to move to Deir Az or province, as they are still bigged down in Raqqa, and Arabs rioting in Hassakah in protest over Kurdish rule. Even in Hassakah, thrre us a Syrian givernment contingent.
It’s unlikely that the US/Kurds could defend this area considering they would get attacked by shia militants from both Iraq in the east and Syria and Lebanon in the West. The oil fields won’t make them any money if they’ve got no where to sell it. The territory is only worth anything to a government able to defend it with international legitimacy. Only the Damascus government can do that.
Excellent comment + add the PMU on the other side of the border (or are they !!??)
I don’t understand why Kurds could not sell the oil ? when ISIS was able to sell it .
True, ISIS could sell it transported in barrels in the back of small trucks and vans, for about half the world market price. They made a bit of cash whilst global oil prices were $100 a barrel, but very little after prices fell below $50 a barrel. When transport costs are high because you have to smuggle it, it will never pay the costs of deploying soldiers to protect it.
ISIS was able to sell it in two directions. One to Thrkey via Kurds in Turkey. Today, border is sealed, and Turkey in charge, unlike during period before the attempted coup — when some in Turkish military acted on advice by the religious leader Gulen, residing in US on God knows what status. This is now over. The second direction was Iraq portion under ISIS. There, the oil was taken into various refineries, sold very cheaply. Refineries were really in the oil-laundering business. Ince refined, itvwas sold anywhere, as the origin of oil was no longer the issue. During that period US was a large IMPORTER OF IRAQI GASOLINE. There were many lame explanations in our media as to why we imported refined gasoline. With both Iraqi and Kurdish control over oil
Infrastructure in Iraq, there is no place to sell.
And before anyone gets any ideas — Barzani Peshmerga Kurds are no friends if PKK, and YPG is essentially PKK, under changed name as PKK is on US list of terrorists. Barzani decided on referendum after it became clear that US was favoring PKK in Iraq over Peshmerga. That came to blows after first US intervention in Iraq — Sinjar, to kick out ISIS and return Yazidis. US used both PKK fighters and Peshmerga, but upon liberation — gave the town to PKK. They are there still today, and Yazidi still out. PKK appeared to have US backing in Syria and Iraq, and not-si-secretely in Turkey. Barzani saw the handsriting on the wall — PKK was to capture the imagination of Kurds, and get majority in favor of indelendence. Barzani is on goid terms with both Erdogan and Baghdad. Deals between Barzani and Baghdad in energy are slready cut. The truth is this vote will undermine PKK in Iraq, and secure goid anti-PKK relationship with Turkey, while the deal with Baghdad is done.
Baghdad has to protest, but this is actually a victory. There are many wats Kurds and Baghdad will sort out their relationship. But if PKK objects, ghis may be an excuse for Baghdad to take them out. US was hoping to postpone the vote to politically weaken Barzani, and get someone else from PKK to power.
This has a bearing in Syrian YPG, aka PKk.
As for Syria not crossing Ejphrates, it already did. Kurds are NOT living in that area, so what exactly are they trying to do? Liberate Syrians from ISIS just to occupy them? Kurds have no manpower to go too far out of their Kobane region. They are just blowing smoke, and US cannot defend their ethnic cleansing now in progress in Raqqa. This is not militarily sustainable.
Plus, it is getting VERY stale to hear Israeli delight in US securing Euphrates, promised to them by Gid himself. I feel that our military is participating in somecsort of Disney Bible Lands, instead of deciding who can credibly get rid of ISIS. And right now, it is Syrian Army –hands down.
Well YEAH..!!! Not to forget how ISIS is Israel DARLING they love to assist to quell Hesbollah!!!!
Of couse. But the premise If this article is that Kurds will not allow Syrian forces cross Euphrates. But they already did, in north-west direction.
Secind, who exactly are Kurds to dictate to Adab majority region as to who will control them.
Hint, Kurds not wanted. Kurds are a tiny minority in that region, and cannot possibly have any presence in that region. And Kurdish military is still tied up back in north east. They cannot hold Raqqa after ISIS is gone, as population does not want them. Unkess US wants to create another Israel-like creation, where Kurds lord over Syrians.
Today, a commander from US supported SDF defected to ISIS. A week ago, two other SDF commanders and tgeur troups defected to Syrian Army. Arab component if SDF is dvaporating after they realized that Kurds will be permitted to rule iver majority Arab regions.
Its starting folks!! First two articles on the link.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-iraq/turkish-jets-strike-kurdish-fighters-in-syria-iraqs-sinjar-idUSKBN17R0D2
” the US has supported attacking Syrian government forces to help the Kurds, but officially the US also supports keeping Syria in one piece, with a strong central government.”
Baloney. The U.S. has been engaging in miitary action within Syrian borders specifically on the grounds that it does not regard Assad as the “legitimate” leader of the country, and giving military aid and support to the so-called “moderate opposition,” an especially cynical action (it was former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger who famously said that the definition of an Islamic moderate was one who had run out of ammunition.)
Syria will never be united. The best they can do is federate and give equal representation for the Shiia, the Sunni and the Kurds, perhaps with a council of three presidents similar to that of Switzerland. This is all the YPG has ever asked for. Assad is a dipsh*t if he doesn’t realize peace is impossible in Syria without the Kurds and the Kurds are dipsh*ts if they believe the American soldiers whispering in their ears are gonna stick around for the cataclysm. These people need each other which is precisely why the US is trying to drive a wedge between them. Your move, Putin.
Nice ending on your comment hermit…. I like it…!!
To me it looks like the idea is to have a North South barrier blocking transportation between Iran and Lebanon. One of the objectives of the Syria intervention was to prevent the dreaded Shia Crescent from forming. Notice the US base at Al Tanf, blocking the Baghdad Damascus highway.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia_Crescent
The complacency with which this news is accepted is nothing short of amazing, especially since those opposing war are typically PBS viewers, and PBS is in the midst of airing Ken Burns’ Vietnam series which goes into great detail about how, when Americans had no internet, and were more or less at the mercy of the MSM for news coverage, we were led by the nose into a deadly and financially backbreaking undeclared war, lasting 10 years.(and then followed by a series of additional undeclared wars.) But neither here, nor, so far in the PBS series, is the astonishing cost being discussed; unlike Vietnam, where the draft stirred massive opposition, the attitude today is “well, they’re all volunteers, and the fact that 500 new homes could be built for hurricane homeless for the cost of a single F-35 fighter is scarcely mentioned, debated, protested.