Commenting today in the lead-up to ceasefire talks in Kazakhstan, UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura said it’s time for the rebel forces to recognize that they didn’t win the six and a half year long Syrian War.
Mistura is pushing a proposal in which, as soon as the rest of ISIS territory gets overtaken by various factions, a nationwide ceasefire would result, leading to negotiations on a permanent settlement of the conflict.
“For the opposition, the message is very clear: if they were planning to win the war, facts are proving that is not the case. So now it’s time to win the peace,” Mistura told reporters. He added that the only real victory would be a sustainable resolution.
That’s going to be a tough sell all around, even with the idea of “freezing” the situation in rebel-held Idlib for the sake of negotiations. Even without ISIS there are a lot of factions in Syria, and getting them all to come together will be difficult.
The most significant part of the comments is not the proposal for peace talks, however, but the recognition that the war isn’t going to be won. That’s something everyone’s been dancing around for some time, and likely something rebels are going to get mad at Mistura for drawing attention to .
Non-ISIS rebel territory includes Idlib,tiny parts of the Jordan border, a small fraction of Hama Province, and the northern half of Aleppo. Kurdish YPG forces hold the whole northeast, and represent another problem because Turkey will almost certainly not let them be in on any peace talks. Both the US and Russia envision a future Syria with a strong central government, and the US has been very clear about no regional autonomy. The two sides, however, have wildly different ideas of what that endgame will look like.
The real issue are no longer small isolated groups. They are hanging around for as long as funds and arms are flowing. But these are drying up rapidly.
Idlib is a special case — it will be adresses through international cooperation. Turkey is a logical candidate, as the corridor between Turkey and Al-Bab beeds to stay in place.
The Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or Al-Nusra, aka Al -Qaeda has a mystery sponsor, and this needs to be ferreted out. Have a feeling that Saudi King is not braving Miscow weather in September for nothing.
It is clear that the victory belongs to the party that is most respected in Syria, and 80%of population chooses to live in government control areas. Over half a million people returned to Allelpo alone. The situation across Euphrates is really interesting.
The Arab component of SDF is disappearing, as several Arab commanders recently defected to Syrian Army. Kurds are not moving anywhere fast from Al-Raqqa region. US has no allies in the area — unless it comes up with imaginary friend. But the locals are organizing against Kurds, and trust cannot be established. It is not like US is needed to keep ethnic groups from killing each other. Damascus and Kurds are not enemies, and Turkey is enough to curb any Kurd ambition. As for Syrian tribesmen, no anymosity to Damascus either. Just the opposite — there is a level of trust in future without ISIS, and restoring Syria-Iraq trade. Read an article in the Post, practically cheerleading US into staying in Syria. And having pile dreams about alliance with Sunnis there, on the basis if a statement by a pointless emigree group in Saudi Arabia. None of those individuals have a prayer to win any office in Syria, and are sigting around, hopping US would find the way to have them installed in Damascus. I doubt US wants to spend its political capital this way. And there is no danger to security of the region, provided that Saudi Arabia stops funding. Turkey has already absorbed their groups on the border. US does not need to fund more groups, as they will be losers. Both Syria and Iraq have capable forces now. Israel is the only lose cannon in the region, but the birder area has bedn sealed off. The way things are going, regional countries are getting together to cobble and guarantee peace in both Syria and Iraq. Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey — all are cooperating already in multiple levels. US may have to focus not on Israel’s tantrums, but on its real security guarantees. Saudi Arabia is the key. The change in the kingdom is not to neocon liking, but the kingdom has been burned way too many times, starting conflicts snd supporting losing causes, trusting US to prevail. Now is the expensive salvage time. From Yemen to Qatar, from Iraq to Syria, from Lebanon to Turkey, from Idan to Egypt. Messes left everywhere. Criwn Orince Al-Najaf releived from all duties, and Mohammed bin Salman has never studied abroad and has no dossier from student days. Mending has started on all fronts.
What mystery sponsor there are Photos of senator John McCain with the leaders of Al Nusra front way back in 2013 these include the soon to be after the Al Nusra ISIS split the leader of ISIS. Al Nusra are the United States of Americas so called moderate Muslim insurgents. It should also be noted that Israel itself was supplying medical evacuation and MASH style patch ups and get them back in field hospitalization. America has without doubt been supplying Al Nusra Front and was doing so from the get go! Ever wonder WHY the US hasn’t gone after the suppliers of all of those Al Nusra and ISIS Toyota’s, it was them! VIN numbers are very easy to trace. where did Toyota ship them too, which dealer had them, that easy and it takes about as long as it has taken to type this out as to find out from Toyota the details.
I fully agree. Suffice to remember the tears shed in CNN and major media in Europe when Al -Qaeda was defeated in Aleppo. And yes, McCain was there, as he was always around to initiate many other failures. And yes, he has ways to find money, and the private business that CIA has become — there are ways to do things. But here is the thing. Saudi Arabia closed its purse, recognizing a losing position when obvious. Turkey sbd Qatar always had one target alone, using militants to prevent ISIS and Kurds controlling its borders, and effectively sealing them off from Iraq. Qatar has just one card, exporting its gas to Turkey, and from there, Europe. But Saudi Arabia took US and Israel side — to chop up Syria, and control pieces. Fast forward to today — and Turkey, Qatar, Iran and even Iraq are in a s-list as far as Israel is concerned. Which translates to task to US. As Saudi Arabia is CLEARLY changing its entire posture, the danger to the ME project is real. Egypt has shifted its posture, and after recent signing of the deal with Russia for building nuclear power plant — is again the tatget of human rights chorus.
Saudi Arabia is getting cliser to Iraq to quietly explore Iran rapproachment. The new crown prince has already been in Moscow three times, and the King is heading there in September. The neocon chorus was so pleased with the deposed crown prince, Al-Najaf, that they spread stories of King’s dementia, in order to have their man get the throne as soon as possible. Failed spectaclularly.
My assessment is that today there is just one major source of ISIS funding and armament. Israel. It has the money and the operatives in the field. Only Israel is sufficiently irrational to try everything possible to slow down Syrian Army progress in Deir Azxor province. They know that US cannot find a partner on the ground to have an excuse to protect, and “fight” ISIS. Kurds are stuck in Raqqa region. But if Syria moves against ISIS across Euphrates, that will seriously mess up Israel’s geopolitical fantasies. Even Kussinger has come forward warning that it would be Iran’s victory. I am now convinced that Israel must have taken over ISIS funding, and must be paying fabulous sums to soldiers and suppliers. It is strange that with plenty of ISIS in the area, US is more concerned with unarmed ISIS and their families. The only problem is — will US military have its hands tied. Once in a while, Nethanuyahoo issues threats to Damaacus, but after a chitchat with Russia — this stops. Russia has clearly something up its sleeve.
But it is coming to the final act. And irrationality of Israel is matching irrationality comming out of Washington. But while the mood of the country in US is easy to gauge, fed up and uber fed up of wars — the moid jn Israel is dangerous. Feeling invincible always does that to people.
Its time for the USA to drop their Islamist Partner Erdogan.
Drop Saudi Arabia and the whole crew of Wahhabi fanatics.
Russia is already replacing the US as Turkey’s new best friend slick.
Wot a cheek ! De Mistura appears again with his bogus “”peace” proposals”.
At no time did he ever offer to mediate between Washington and Syria and repeatedly appeared sitting next to John Kerry at the liitlle conferences they had to which they did not invite the Syrian government.
What he means by a “peace settlement” is one in which a pro-American client government is installed or a “transitional government” in which their clients take part and eventually take over.
But what Mistura appears to be doing is the old problem for this Covert Operation using paramilitaries
How to get the Jihadist paramilitaries to go away.
Washington always intended that the Islamic fundamentalist jihadist paramilitaries would not take part in the post-war government or “settlement”, it would be entirely secular but an American client government.
The jihadists were to bring “pressure”” on the Syrian government.
Lastly it is totally unacceptable there be a corridor from Turkey to Idlib as Turkey is a party in the war – they were promised Syrian territory as pat of Pan-Ottomanism.
Finally America is the supreme funder trainer and armer of the Jihadists., Washington is the mysterious s sponsor of Al Nusra and Al Quaeda – they formed them.
A fortune of American taxpayers’ money has been spent on this operation.
This talk of Turkey or Arabia is cover to fool Western Liberals.
Finally why should America decide on a strong central government for Syria?
Commenting today in the lead-up to ceasefire talks in Kazakhstan, UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura said it’s time for the rebel forces to recognize that they didn’t win the six and a half year long Syrian War.
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Translation: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel, USA, NATO, the Neo-Cons did not win he 6-1/2 year long war
Good!!
I forgot to throw in there their allies ISIS and al Qaeda. It’s really easy to figure out who was really working for who and why.
Yep–the U.S. lost AGAIN. Time to promote some more incompetent generals.
I’m sure the Soviets felt the same in Afghanistan during the 80’s. This war is far from over slick.
yes because all Muslims are terrorists and all Dictators are good according to all you alt right racist types.
Those who lost the war are not going to negotiate a permanent peace that hands them victory anyway. Get real.
this article is a shining example of why so many now see anti war much like Trump as a mouth piece of russian propaganda<_<
Sure, if “so many” means “Christopher Corvino.”
yeah no not really. As someone who’s traveled across south America and Asia working as a merchant mariner I can tell u i’m not the only one who thinks like this. Russia is an imperialist country that is no different then the US and other western countries. And just because it wants to replace the US as master of the world doesn’t change that. Any site which lets Russia and its pro Trump president off the hook for its actions is part of the problem not the solution.
“I can tell u i’m not the only one who thinks like this.”
Well, see, that’s the problem. That thing you’re doing that you think is “thinking,” isn’t.
ok smart ass if that’s what makes you sleep at night<_<
so in your white privileged mind every person from S America and Asia who ive talked with is wrong. Is that what your saying?
Hmm. I didn’t know that people who aren’t white can be “white privileged.”
Logic’s not your strong suit, is it?
you look whiter then filing paper. Nice try though.
OK, so you have vision problems along with your other cognitive deficits. I’m a mutt.
sure you are….cough gringo cough!
So, cognitive deficit, vision problems, and a nasty cough. Noted.
keep on being a smart ass there slick. It doesn’t somehow make you look less like a gringo.
Why would I want to look less like what I am (a “gringo” is “a person, especially an American, who is not Hispanic or Latino”)?
Congratulations on learning to use a computer to make yourself look like an idiot in public. Maybe next week, Mommy will teach you how to cross the street unaccompanied, or wipe yourself in a way that minimizes skid marks.
sure whatever floats your boat there white boy.