Yesterday’s 24-hour ultimatum by Saudi Arabia requiring Qatar to make massive changes to their foreign policy and shut down their state media forever has come and gone, with Qatari officials insisting that there will be “no surrender” amid the ongoing dispute and that they won’t compromise their sovereignty.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain all severed ties with Qatar several days ago, with the split heavily centered around long-standing resentment of Qatar’s state media backing democratic reform during the Arab Spring.
Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani today made clear that they are totally unwilling to change their foreign policy position over the ongoing blockade by the Saudis and their allies, and that they are prepared to live under embargo forever, noting they have the backing of the rest of the international community.
The Saudi demands sought Qatar to agree to wholesale changes in their foreign policy as well as to make a public, irrevocable pledge to always take the foreign policy position consistent with the GCC, which is generally just the position of the Saudi kingdom.
Qatar’s positions are generally not wildly different from some other GCC member nations, though they have the most in common Oman. The demands to sever all ties with Iran and expel everyone that the Saudis believe are “hostile” to the GCC would be a dangerous precedent to set, and Oman and Kuwait are both trying to help negotiated some sort of solution short of this total surrender.
And while President Trump made a point of praising the Saudi move against Qatar initially, he too is now offering to negotiate a deal, raising speculation that he may well have had no idea that Qatar hosts the largest US military base in the region.
There is still no indication of what the Saudis intend to do about Qatar ignoring the ultimatum, but predictions yesterday that they would respond with an immediate military invasion were clearly not true, and there’s no sign that the Saudis would even attempt to impose regime change militarily against the nation.
The cannibalistic and bankrupt Wahhabi ideology is on full display. The artificially exacerbated “sectarian divide” is largely meaningless. Outside of Western meddling, it would be no more consequential than Baptist vs Methodist. I could only imagine what the reaction in the west would be if the Gulf states and KSA dropped the pretenses and stopped the hostilities and embraced their brothers and sisters in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. The natural resources of such a bloc would be unprecedented and massive. Kind of puts a great big AHAH on why the middle east is fractured and in constant chaos.
I give very little weight to the Qatari FM’s public defiance of KSA and UAE. The GCC monarchies do their diplomacy behind closed doors. KSA and UAE will let Qatar save face by publicly refusing to give up its independence. But relations will be restored after a back channel deal is made. In the following months Qatar will quietly reduce its assistance to Gaza, request that the Hamas political bureau relocate and either cut the Thaini family subsidy to al-Jaazera or exercise more editorial influence behind the scenes. But there will likely be major changes in Al-Jazeera in the coming months. And Qatar will fall in line with GCC policy on Iran.
The USA, KSA and UAE are preparing a coalition for war with Iran and to remake the Middle East to include a central role for Israel and no role for Hamas or the Palestinian resistance. Qatar has to be brought into line and Al-Jazeera silenced. Qatar will comply, but not publicly. .
Russia and China have peaceful economic dibs on Iran; hot war is unlikely. A renewed Cold War isn’t very uplifting to contemplate either, though.
Arab NATO indeed.
Its possible what we’re seeing is the result of back-room failures at negotiation, not just empty talk by Qatar. The public demands by SA are not what any sovereign nation would agree to, and people will be watching for signs of weakness on Qatar’s part.
Qatar deployed 1000+ troops into Yemen, and like other oil states took a hit in the pocketbook when the oil price war with Russia went flat. Qatar may represent those very unhappy with Saudi leadership at this point, and its not a position they would take without U.S. military leadership being in the loop.
Ditz has written in the past about a bit of a split between the Pentagon and Langly over the conduct of U.S. wars; in Syria their proxies fought regularly. Maybe this is another manifestation of a split. The CIA types are with SA; the actual military, with Qatar.
I thought the split was supposed to be tactical — to have insider inluence in
all camps — although it all many times got out of hand due to bureaucratic and personality induced power plays.
But I am guessing this is not one of those. Trump had to verbally please our Israel First globalists — and in Saudi Arabia he did it, characteristically way over the top. If he objective of going after Iran was very serious, and not decorative in the part of US — then US would have behind the scenes worked on issues KSA has with Qatar. One possibility is that KSA decided to nonlonger be patient with Qatar, and go for public show of force, forcing now uber friendly Trump to go along. And by having plenty of mediators available — to get its way while saving Qatar’s face. This is not likely as Trump would not have so misread the “first impression”. After all — his stable is full of neocon thoroughbreads.
Another possibility is that KSA is justifiably nervous about Trump elevating Egypt in the last meeting. This would please Israel First globalists, pleased to see Egypt added to the anti-Iran camp and assuming that US is in control and can manage rivalries and jealousies. But KSA knows better. Because Egypt is the piece of the puzzle that does not add up. Neocon world has always had their heads in the cloud, believing they shape the reality, not that reality has life of its own. So, it is mighty easy for neocons to move and clame their prize — Egypt. Egypt is by its population a real gravity of Sunni world. Saudi Arabia may be a spiritual center with Mecca being its Vatican.
But KSA and all other Gulf monarchies are made up of immigrants rulled by old feudal monarchies, and with high percentage of Shia native populace to boot. If KSA is suspecting (correctly, I think) that Egypt is not joining for the sake of anti-Iranian agenda, and that Egypt is by far stronger and more independent international player than “heads in the cloud”. neocons understand — then a reality test is needed to flush out pretenders — be that in GCC, or wider in Islamic world. And to test Egypt on Iran’s issue. And to test even Trump on Iranian issue. KSA is not delusional. It has served and is serving neocon deep state by its distinct Wahhabi ideology that in a shape of a garden variety of cults spreads violence around the globe. Always where and when needed. But now, its actions are laid bare as most countries in the world point the finger at KSA for spreading radical ideology, financing and arming such weaponized cults. Fearing that Egypt has become more valuable to US — especially in Libya — Saudi Arabia in fact does not have another option but to generate the crisis. Its demands are over the top, but among nations that are used to bargaining — it is usually clear from the beggining what is the real objective — so it is just a question of the price each is willing to pay. With Iran being the litmus test — if Qatar does not back off, if Turkey, an ally of Iran increases numbers of its troops in Qatar, and all other GCC countries (with the exception of Bahrain) take less then stern line towards Qatar — in fact, Iran — then KSA will have to back off the hard line. It just cannot do it alone. Even with US behind them. So, one at a time. Kuweit has 40% of Shia population, and bring friendly with Iran and Iraq is a key to peace at home. UAE has a large Iranian population, and is still split internally what Abu Dhabi wants or what Dubai wants. But BOTH want end of war in Yemen and are contesting KSA claim on ine Yemen, preferring return to pre-nineties two states of North and South Yemen. They are in agreement with Oman, the neighbor of South Yemen — and future mentor. UAE drove that point home to KSA by fighting their prody army in Aden for the control of that port in the south. South would gladly give up Aden to UAE, and will be satisfied with Hadhramouth province with capital in Mukkala and close gies with Oman. Sana’a, the center of Shia North would be beyond pleased and be happy with the new neighborhood in the south. Needles to say, anybody giving an inch to Shia undesirables in the ME is not a friend of Israel and
Israel First globalists in DC. So much for UAE. Oman, forever maintained good relations with Iran. And differs with KSA on solution to Yemen crisis.
And then there is Qatar. Always being a thorn in KSA side, and effectively fighting with KSA fot the leadership in the Gulf. They always had two key differences. One, position on Iran — with KSA Wahhabism treating Shia as apostates. Qatar has resisted that extreme interpretation. Second key difference is the vision of future governance. Qatar wanted a Turkish style dominant party with Prime Minister but with a Constitutional monarch instead of a weak president. Turkey in fact provided a clinical analysis in support of that model. After an attempt by Soros-Gulen internally infiltrated forces to assasinate Erdogan and take over the government — Turkey has moved into a strong presidential form of government to eliminate multiple centers of power that can be manipulated by external sources. Egypt learned a hard lesson ss well. Military, having organized the elections for both Parliament and Predidency was happy to support MB and Morsi in power. It looked like a model of parliamentary democracy with military instead if monarchy guaranteeing stability. But it almost resulted in a civil war, when the twin forces of Saudi Salafism in Egypt, and MMF strangulation resulted in bread shortage, and thousands of angry Salafis being prodded by KSA into believing that MB are really not Moslems. Morsi was not cautious, and too hastily opened relationships with Iran — bringing all Saudi resources into action to topple Morsi. Military had to step in and destroy its protege. MBwas to be an sacrificial offering to KSA and neocons — so that order could be established, and Salafis pacified. A suspicious KSA was not to be appeased untill MB was destroyed as a party, its property confiscated and leadership put in jail. But military did not give power to KSA Salafi exponents, but to former Mubarak governors. They were themselves always vary of Saudi meddling, and Mubarak feebleness in face of Saudi arrogance. As Egypt left Saudi coalition in war on Yemen, KSA was swift to punish — stopped shipping oil already paid for. So, here we are. Egypt has to maintain hard line in MB as it does not want millions of Salafis riled up again — and does not want KSA to have excuses. As for Al-Jazeera, it has been ever since Egypt’s toppling of Mubarak and 2014 forced abdication of old Al-Thani, effectively managed by American neocons. All of its content faithfully folliws their narrative. So much so, that the entire Beirut buteau resigned over not being allowed to report the truth on Syrian conflict. And in its role of moral neocon superiority took shots at every ME country in irder to keep leadership on edge and worrying about stability. So — at this point, everyone, including Qatar, may want to see a sweeping change at the top so it will no longer be an Arabic version of Voice of America.
So, what does Egypt wants out of it? Taking a leading tole in Sunni Moslem world. By joining KSA in the attack on Qatar, the rival GCC country — Egypt has a chance to politically dominate both. All Egypt is doing is pushing MB under the bus — but it had done it already domestically. But its lifeline was provided by Russia and China, and tsese will remain the cornerstone of Egypt’s geopolitics. With key GCC members wavering on Yemen, Syria and Iran — Saudi Arabia threw out a test if loyalty to ISRAEL, not themselves. KSA can adjust its geopolitics in a day if needed, but it is necessary to have a show of hands in the region. It will allow for either of the outcomes — a more agressive US knee jerk reaction to right the ship neocons thought secure, or quietly transfer/share leadership in Sunni world — by getting GCC of the hot seat, and letting moderate Egyptian views and broader global relationships take an active role in solving hot spot issues. At the same time, Qatar can get out if the thankless role — trying to moderate the paranoud kingdom.
Neocon politics — based on some visible markers is in trouble. Russia, China, Iran and Turkey in the same page. Central Asia out of their poilitical reach. Egypt in allignment with Russua and China on broad range of issues. Turkey and Egypt — both acquiring wisdom in post- external induced instability, in allignment on Syria. Egypt in allignment with UAE and Oman on Yemen.
So, now the Qatar litmust test is under way. But one should never underestimate neicon deep state. Terror attacks can convenuently stir up ghosts and shift public mood. Three weaponized islamic cult attacks in England will scuttle Brexit, as the confidence in Conservative government slipped. So, globalists get a repreive, and tomorrow is another day.
This is what ISIS cult attack in Iran is all about. Stir public opinion, force Iran to take a wrong step, and change again the dynamuc in the Gulf. Or just have a general in Qatar use US force to “protect” the base, and sideline Qatar rulers. All is possible — but it may be either too late ir too drastic to produce the desired shift.
…
It is speculation, but whatever. The tactical differences between Deep State spooks and straightforward warfighters isn’t easily written off.
Hybrid war and conventional warfighting both consume considerable resources and the U.S. is more or less broke. Spies could go kinetic on their own without the soldiers, a turf war for influence and resources seems inevitable.
They may agree the U.S. needs to be in Syria, for example, but the pretext is essentially the U.S. military cleaning up after a failed intel proxy war.
“… And while President Trump made a point of praising the Saudi move
against Qatar initially, he too is now offering to negotiate a deal,
raising speculation that he may well have had no idea that Qatar hosts
the largest US military base in the region.”
No, idea? really? Hahahahahahah… Ok this is serious… Mmmff… Cough cough…
Qataris are much less tyrannical than the Saudis. Many Christian churches are operating in Qatar with state blessing, a development which is still banned in Saudi Arabia. There is no real dispute between the Western powers and Qatar. What this appears to be is a concerted, planned diplomatic embargo to squeeze out Al-Jazeera, that’s all the West wants. Al-Jazeera must be comprimised because the control of the media outlets is essential for popular war backing.
As “ISIS” forays into Tehran itself, the U.S. secretly builds new forces inside Syria. The anti-Iranian, anti-Russian rhetoric in the Congress, Pentagon and CIA/CFR media outlets is so loud it is breaking glass. Comprimising Al-Jazeera
ensures hegemony over the distribution of information and opinion – totally essential in the fog of war that is coming. Of course, Russians, Iranians, and Lebanese will have their medias, but they are already under attack, their ability to reach the Western masses is already under assault.
What the Pentagon truly believes is that when pressed, Russia and China will not engage “coalition forces” militarily to defend Syria, Lebanon and Iran.
Are they right about this ? Only the Kremlin knows.
Don’t forget the role of Israel and the Zionist lobby in all of this. Israel’s top foreign policy objective is the overthrow of the Iranian regime and the destruction of Iran as a regional strategic power and economic competitor. KSA is on board with this. And the recent leaked emails show the UAE is working closely with the Israel lobby behind the scenes.
The Zionists, the USA and the GCC want to curb Qatar’s support for Gaza and Hamas. Their goal is to eliminate Hamas and the Islamic Brotherhood.
Qatar may be a bid less repressive than KSA. But Qatar been a leader in the movement to overthrow Assad and Qatar gives more financial support per capita to the Daesh than any other country, including KSA. And in the long run Al-Jazeera and the Brotherhood are threats to the Thani monarchy as well as the other Mid East dictatorships.
With the largest US air base in the Middle East and with Qatar’s longstanding hostility to Assad, I can’t see Russia committing itself to the defense of Qatari sovereignty.The Qatari regime understands that its future is with the other Persian Gulf monarchies. So Qatar will loudly declare its independence, KSA, UAE will declare their respect for Qatar as a brother state. But Qatar will quietly get back in line behind KSA .
eM
Much of the presumed Qatari support you’ve mentioned is in the realm of dark streams. I do not see Qatar as an independent nation-state whatsoever. Their degree of sovereignty has always been limited to areas of no concern to neocons. The immediacy in which Al-Jazeera was earmarked for change reveals the true plan of all this. Once that happens, the fabricated crisis is over.
As I wrote before, this needs to be done before the real war begins, the CIA, CFR and Mossad have to infiltrate Al-Jazeera.
Interesting analysis. Where are you getting the info regarding daesh funding re: qatar?
Just Google “Qatar Syrian civil war” and “Qatar Syria Arab League”
Qatar has been the most militant supporter of the Syrian rebels of all the Arab regimes. It was the first Arab country to close its embassy in Damascus. After Trump was elected in November Qatar proclaimed that they would continue to support the rebels (terrorists) even if Trump ended the US role. Qatar was one of the first countries to call for expelling Syria from the Arab League. Since 2013 Qatar has been trying to seat the rebel alliance as Syria’s official representative to the Arab League. Even the Saudis have not gone that far. In March when some members of the Arab League wanted to reinstate Syria, Qatar and KSA led the opposition.
The Financial Times reported that Qatar had funded the Syrian rebellion by “as much as $3 billion” over the first two years of the civil war.[176] It reported that Qatar was offering refugee packages of about $50,000 a year to defectors and family.[176]
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that Qatar had sent the most weapons to Syria, with over 70 weapons cargo flights into Turkey between April 2012 and March 2013.[176][177]
Qatar operates a training base in its territory, in conjunction with the CIA who run the training, training about 1,200 rebel soldiers a year on three week courses.[178][179]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_involvement_in_the_Syrian_Civil_War#Arab_League
A game of chicken, and Qatar called the bluff. Just because the Saudis have the military strength to conquer their neighbors doesn’t mean that wouldn’t start a chain of events that might well end with all royal Saudi heads rolling down the palace steps. Nothing threatens the house of Saud more that a local sheik with even the slightest support for democracy and free media. And a backbone.
No. Nothing threatens the house of Saud more than a free press. They will shut down Al-Jazeera or transform it into a tool of the GCC by any means necessary.
POTUSTRUMPET “may well have had no idea that Qatar hosts the largest US military base in the region.” This is no surprise, since he has no idea how NATO works.
Good, tell them Saudis to shove it those mass murderers.