Back in August, Turkey’s invasion of northern Syria focused a lot on seizing ISIS territory along the border. At this point, all the easily claimable ISIS cities are gone, and Turkey’s forces are increasingly bumping up against the forces of the Syrian government.
In al-Bab, Turkish forces took the city, but Syrian troops took the immediate south, effectively cutting off any deeper Turksih advances. Clashes between Turkey-backed rebels erupted, but eventually both started moving eastward, toward the important, Kurdish-held city of Manbij.
Today, Syria appears to have cut a deal with the Kurdish YPG and the Manbij Military Council to cut Turkey off at the pass, with Russia brokering an agreement in which some of the villages ringing Manbij will be handed over to the Syrian government’s control.
The deal aims to allow the Syrian military to ring the Kurdish-held city, which would prevent Turkey from directly invading Manbij, something they’ve long threatened to do. It remains to be seen how Turkey will respond to this deal, as they are party to a ceasefire with the Syrian government and other factions, but would have a much longer trek to find new Kurdish or ISIS targets to attack.
Nobody is talking about what really matters. All Kuds have to do is to accept the sovereignity and territorial integtity of Syria. Turkey as a guarantor of the cease fire has already affirmed the territorial integrity of Syria and its intentions to withdraw from Syria once peace has been established. So, if Kurds pledge the loyalty to Damascus with the expectations of some autonomy — a draft constitution framework is being already looked at. That would mean that US sponsored Army consisting mostly of Kurds — will not demand independence, and the purpose of fighting is not to expand the territory of Kurds at the expense of Arabs – something they have already done at Manbij.
It is also not clear if the Kurds of Kobani now fighting around Raqqa — do recognize any deals with Damascus. I have to say that various Kurdish combinations have greatly gotten in the way kf fighting ISIS. The reason for caution is the sorry event at Hassakah. In thet town, surfounded by ISIS, Syrian government had one of the rare outposts of its soldiers close to Iraqi border. Out of nowhere, Kurds attack Syrian soldiers and took most of the city. There are many other towns in Raqqa region that are majority Arab, and they fear that with ISIS gone, Kurds will force rhem out. They are already up in arms against Kurdish takeover. US will be wise not to get into nation building. And that would mean letting Syria also take part of Raqqa and Deir Azzor provinces. It would be wise to let Kurds negotiate autonomy, assuring Turkey that no Kurdish state would emerge on its borders with a US flag attop of an US base to guard a new state. If US will not guarantee a state, but will help Kurds get a good deal out of Damascus — that may satidfy Turkey. Next week Erdogan is travelling to Moscow. The Syria end game will be discussed.
I see Turkey as trying to follow Israel’s example and annex Syrian land the way The Golan was lost. They invade and fill the area with Turkmen and Sunni Arabs, or build a military presence there, and with the land being on the Turkish border becomes defacto Turkish territory.
Your reply is nothing less than stupendous ignorance or a childish lie. One would hope that you’re just ignorant beyond belief and unwilling to do basic research…
Israel took Golan during the 6-Day War in 1967 when Syria used it to shell Israel proper. After the war, Israel tried to give it back to Syria but when Syria (and the other Arab nations) did the Khartoum Resolution 1 (continued belligerence to Israel and continuing to seek Israel’s destruction) and Israel decided(quite wisely) to not return the Golan because Syria would use it to launch more shells and other things into Israel.
Israel didn’t want the Golan, they wanted to return it and live peacefully with their neighbors but unfortunately, Israel’s neighbors decided that Israel needed to be wiped out and would attack them using the Golan if possible.
Just 5 years later, Israel’s neighbors attack again on the holiest day of the year for Israel, Yom Kippur.
If Syria wanted the Golan back, they could’ve had it but instead wanted war and destruction of Israel.
Turkey was first, taking Hatay Province. Israel only follows by taking the Golan. But yes, Turkey wants more.
Why? Turkey can’t keep only its part of the Kurds. The cross border operations keep alive the Kurdish insurgency against Turkey.
It certainly may look that way if you just gleen info from daily events. But it is not this simple. US/CIA supported various religious cults in the name of fighting “the regime”. The barbarity of those need not be explained. But Pentagon latched on to a reliable and motivated force, Kurds. Kurds have at first sided with Damascus, but after ISIS took a chunk of Syria, and gave them multiple defeats at Kobani – they had to go into self defense and not reliance on Damascus. This was the identical pattern employed in Iraq — where ISIS proved to Sunni tribes that Baghdad is not to be relied on — and took rapidly good chunk of Sunni Iraq. Whoever is bankrolling the .Islamic cults under whatever name — knew exactly the objective. Breaking up Iraq and Syria. In Iraq, northern Sunni tribes were to do the job, along with a drifting swarms of ISIS cults led usually by a Saudi religious figure and one or more former Saddam’s army commanders.
In Syria, the effort to mobilize Sunnis failed. For one, most Sunnis of Syria are wealthier part of the society, pretty westernized in their social outlook, better educated and with good relationship with Shia and Christians. The only Sunni attracted to Salafi cults were MOST OF THE IRAQI REFUGEES LIVING IN SYRIA. After US invasion, nearly two million fled into Syria and Lebanon. Some to Turkey. This population was radicalized by STANDARD SAUDI CHARITY/RELIGIOUS CONVERSION TO SALAFISM. All poor across Arab and non-Arab Moslem world were regimented into cult like communities. In theory, these were supposed to be religious people with no wordly vanity. In practice, most of them –once given weapons and a cause — turned into savages that respect no religion or practiced justice. They wallow in cruelty, dismemberment of human beings and behead people to satisfy perversion — not any justice.
We hear about them in Syria and Iraq, but have not been informed of these cults back then when Saudi Arabia armed such cults in Bosnia and Chechnya. Those cults still remain in those places, at the moment not violent. The ENTIRE Kosovo has been in a few short years converted to Salafism, and the traditional Sufi Islam practically banished. In Egypt there are now tens of millions Salafi converts, and they — not anything else — were behind Morsi’s downfall, leaving Army no choice but to placate them with Morsi’s head. It was as siple as that. Saudi Arabia just dog whistles –and Salafis are up in arms, politically or litterally.
From Indonesia to Pakistan, from Nigeria to Algeria, from Libya ro Sri Lanka — the Salafi cults stand poised to undermine any secular society, state and its institutions. They are formidable weapon in globalist war on states and its citizen-protecting institutions in all countries Sunni Islam is present.
We have been and still are, political protectors of those movements, partially out of our political harmony with Israeli and Saudi anti Shia ideology, but mostly out of our leading globalist desire to undermine nation states, borders and state institutions that unite societies.
In Syria, Kurds were found to be more effective ground force, but our tearfull and emotional support for the cults of headchoppers — did not end. Witness Aleppo’s propaganda conversion from a city-hostage to a city of brave people manning the barricades! And an OSCAR for WHITE HELMETS. They do deserve an Oscar, for the best acting in fake humanitarianism.
Kurds are facing a tough decision between US (at least under Obama) offer of a state, or a deal with Assad. At the moment — everything is alligned in favor of Kurds accepting Assad deal, and not in favor of US nation building of Kurdish state against strong Turkish objections.
But if not a state — then why would Kurds die fighting ISIS to expell them from Raqqa? US is at the moment adrift. Getting in the middle of area with practically no ISIS left. So — right in the middle of area with THREE airforces already in action. And next to no ISIS left. Hope it is just some need to raise adrenaline.
But untill Trump unvails his ISIS plan — the key stronghold of ISIS towns — Raqqa, Deir Azzor and down to Mosul — remain in status quo. The With ISIS rapidly abandoning Palmyra area, the path to Deir Azzor is opened for Syrian Army.
It is important to understand that Turkey MUST act as a protector of Arabs in the region. Arab grievances against Kurds are real — and these fighters need to be put under control. This is what Turkey has done. And it controls them to avoid clashes with Syrian Army. And Syrian Army did not move to the south of Al-Bab in order to prevent Turkey from moving into their territory — but to prevent ISIS from having space to outmanuever Turkish forces. It happened three times before. Once Syrian Army cut off ISIS, they had to fight in Al-Bab or abandon it. They mostly abandoned the city.
We tend to see the problems out of the context — and they look more confusing then in reality they are. Turkish attacks on Kurds drove Kurds into Damascus arms — at the moment. Nobody is seeing in this anything more then tactical move. The key to success will remain Russia-Turkey understanding, and the principled support of Syrian territorial integrity. This is your virtue signaling at its best — telling US and its allies that dividing Syria is not on the table. While Turkey is still frigale — it is more solid then it was only last fall. The key is Russian and Chinese support for its economy — and no NATO sweet talking can compensate for that. And this will also curb imperial thinkers in Turkey. Bread and butter issues usually (not always) prevail.
This is great news. I have long said that a Russian-Syrian-Rojavan alliance is the key to ending the American-Turkish-Saudi conspiracy to destroy Syria. Hopefully this will convince the YPG that they don’t need those duplicitous Yankee Quislings to achieve autonomy.