Iraq’s advances toward Mosul in recent weeks already sounded a lot bigger in official statements than they looked on the map, and a big counter-offensive by ISIS forces, which began Friday night, they have brought Iraq’s Army to a virtually complete halt in the battle over the major city.
The counter-offensive began as cloudy weather hindered US warplanes, allowing ISIS forces to come out of cover and move toward an Iraqi Army barracks. The army insists ISIS did not reach the barracks, but officials did concede that ISIS recaptured some ground on the way there.
This has been a common strategy for ISIS in both Iraq and Syria, trying to get the pressure off of their defensive forces with counter-attacks forcing the other side to shift their own focus. This has often allowed ISIS to drag out long offensives.
That’s bad news for locals in Mosul, who are complaining that food and water supplies are already running low, with months more of war likely ahead. Locals also dismissed army claims of progress, saying they haven’t seen the Iraqi troops make a meaningful advance in three weeks.
I have watched videos of the offensive on Mosul, and if the so-called New Iraqi Army can take the city by itself, without Shia militia, Kurdish, and Iranian assistance, I’ll eat my motorcycle helmet. Raw.
The New Iraqi Army is probably second only to the Saudi Army in Yemen in utter, absolute, total incompetence and pusillanimity. Soldiers wander into the sights of ISIS snipers, only to be mowed down like targets in a shooting gallery. Over and over, units of multiple Iraqi armoured vehicles – flying huge flags guaranteed to attract attention from kilometres away and make for lovely aiming points – drive away for their lives after, literally, one or two ISIS bullets. If this is the standard of the Iraqi Army after all these years of American funding, training, and equipping, I wonder what it will do in the inevitable anti-Kurdish battles to come.
I only wonder just why this incompetent, unready, shambles of a force was thrown against well-prepared, determined ISIS defenders. ISIS, for all its sins, isn’t like Obama’s moderate cannibal headchoppers in Syria; its troops are brave, motivated, and actually fight. It also has been fortifying Mosul for two years, and the place would be a challenge even for a competent and experienced army. The only explanation I can think of is that there actually was a deal to abandon Mosul after a token resistance in exchange for free passage to Syria (as a lot of us had anticipated back in October) but that it fell through for some reason. What that reason is I don’t know, but it might have to do with internal politics inside ISIS or the lack of a sufficient quid pro quo.
Mosul will, of course, be eventually taken, but it’s important just who does the taking. ISIS would be very happy if it’s the Kurds who take the city, for they will then begin purging the Arab and Turkmen population, as they’ve done elsewhere, and try and hang on to it forever. This will be – naturally – unacceptable to Iraq and probably to Turkey, which means they will jointly turn on the Kurds. This war-within-a-war can only benefit ISIS, which is clearly planning for the long haul.
Isis could indeed just surrender Mosul but it would effectively be a statement of bankruptcy to its fighters. Where would they go in Syria? to do what? scrap over the scraps with Al Nusra?
Where would Daesh go?…………BODY BAGS, of course.
Let me tell you the new focus of ISIS: Indonesia. As an Asian, I know what’s going on in Indonesia, and it’s going to be a much tougher nut to crack than the deserts of Iraq.
Indonesia? Isis? how? they may attempt to find adherents there but Indonesia hasn’t been under imperial domination the way Sunnistan is, which gave Isis its foot in the door.
Indonesia, especially Aceh, is well on the way to full blown Wahhabism. There have been massive Islamist demos in Jakarta against the ethnic Chinese Christian mayor, Ahok, in the last few weeks. Indonesian ISIS have released a video (you can find it on heavy.com) directly threatening Trump. Don’t go by the way Indonesia used to be; it’s changed one hell of a lot on the last fifteen years, including the very character of Indonesian Islam itself.
interesting. I was in Jakarta that length of time ago for six months hadn’t realized the quickness or the extent of the change..