As it has every six months since the 2014 accession of Crimea into the Russian Federation, the European Union is set to vote on extending sanctions against Russia. While this is always a battle, with several nations expressing doubts about the merits of permanent sanctions, officials say the December vote should pass.
But after that, it’s a lot less clear. The EU sanctions have primarily been surviving on the back of pressure from the US, and from Western European nations with little trade to lose in continuing the sanctions. The election of Donald Trump in the US may signal a shift in US policy, with Trump saying he believes better relations with Russia are desirable.
That’s a big shift in the EU sanctions’ momentum, with the Brexit also dramatically weakening the impact of Britain’s support for the sanctions. Nations like Hungary which have long been skeptical may have all the more reason to resist extensions beyond the current one, meaning the sanctions would effectively end in mid-2017.
EU sanctions against Russia require unanimous votes, and recent extensions have required considerable debate and negotiation to keep them intact. A lot of eastern European nations have serious business interests with Russia which they’d prefer to see uninterrupted.
The principal reason why Hitler insisted that his Wehrmacht must take Crimea was that he feared it would eventually become a Soviet base for long-range Allied bombers which could then attack the Romanian oil fields which were the major source for Germany’s crude oil.
Fast forward. A EU or worse NATO Crimea would become a base for NATO bombers and US missiles directed at Russia and its Black Sea fleet from it’s southern border. That is all one needs to know to understand why it was in Russia’s national interest that Crimea must return to the Federation after the Kiev coup.
Too bad the December vote won’t be to end the sanctions. Even though most Europeans are hurt badly by those sanctions and want to end them, European governments vote for the sanctions because of extreme pressure and threats from Washington. I wouldn’t be surprised if the State Dept is delivering bags of cash to important people
That would be a important step in the right direction. By the way you used the right word for Cremia joining Russian federation. Yes it was an ‘accession’ not annexation which word is used in the Russiaphobic propaganda. Examples of annexation is eg the Golan Heights by Israel and the West Bank. They are held by military occupation.