The US-Russia ceasefire deal for Syria, scheduled to begin on Monday evening, looks to be on fairly steady footing, with the Syrian government quick to endorse it, along with at least some of the rebel factions. Turkey, which invaded Syria just two weeks ago, has also signed on.
The main Saudi-backed faction, the High Negotiations Committee, is still uncommitted, claiming that they haven’t received the text of the deal from either the US or Russia yet, and that they doubted the Syrian government, which again has already confirmed it will participate, will do so.
The possibility of a ceasefire coming into effect in about 48 hours, as is so often the case, has led to a significant increase in fighting on several fronts, as everybody attempts to score some last minute gains before the clock runs out, hoping they can reinforce tenuously-acquired territory when the ceasefire goes into effect.
Over 80 people were killed in airstrikes alone, according to reporters on the scene, as airstrikes against Nusra Front holdings in Idlib Province killed at least 36 people, and airstrikes against Nusra territory in Aleppo killed another 45.
Nusra shelling of the government-held half of Aleppo killed at least 10 more civilians, according to reports, and five others were killed in fighting around Damascus. Nusra is not going to be a party to the new ceasefire, so it remains to be seen if it will have any impact at all on Aleppo fighting.
How can Syria go for this? This creates a no fly zone for their air force.
Easy. They will see who respects ceasefire — thus who is their sponsor and who is actually representing them. The fog of different colors called “rebels” is clearing up.
Attacking Al-Nusra and ISIS is on schedule and not limiting anyone. Turkey will attack Kurds if they move an inch in the wrong direction — even if they act virtuous helping US “fight” ISIS. It really is getting stale. US war on ISIS has not liberated one village or town — ISIS soldiers were allowed to leave and Kurds will take control. It appears that ISIS has been nothing more then placeholder for Kurdish territory –already declared by an “assambly”. And all that happened because ISIS attacked Kurds in Kobani — proving that Assad cannot help them. Once they let go of loyalty to Damascus they became US ally — given the privilege of ethnic cleansing. Now they are stuck between two NATO allies fighting each other over their fate.
Aug 24, 2016 US government sent over 1.4 million guns to Iraq and Afghanistan
Since the start of the so-called War on Terror, the US government has sent at least 1.4 million guns to arm Iraq and Afghan government forces, AOAV’s research into US Department of Defence contracts can reveal.
https://aoav.org.uk/2016/us-government-sends-over-1-4-million-guns-to-iraq-and-afghanistan/
The American-Russian agreement on Syria will not succeed. Although the mainstream media is lined up to blame Bashar al-Asad for its collapse, the arrangement will lie with the rebels.
First, the contract ignores the fact that foreign terrorists continue to cross the Turkish-Syrian border unhindered. Washington will not pressure Ankara to use its army to block the entrance of jihadist fighters.
Second, the understanding makes no mention of the money and arms that flow to rebels from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. They have backed such terror groups as the Muslim Brotherhood and al Qaeda affiliates. Without this key item, the rebels will rebuild its forces and renew the conflict when they view themselves as better prepared.
Third, the agreement makes mention that American-backed rebels will disassociate themselves from al Qaeda terrorists. That will not happen. The rebels have a close relationship with al Qaeda. They share the same philosophy as to what the new political system will entail. The rebels have shown that they need the military expertise of the al Qaeda terrorists to combat the Syrian army.
Fourth, the Obama administration has shown its inability to exercise any influence. In the recent past, American-trained rebels have demonstrated that they will return home. They have surrendered their weapons to al Qaeda. Those American trained rebels that have fought al Qaeda have been defeated or absorbed. We have spent millions of dollars on many programs only to produce a modest number of fighters.
Fifth, al Qaeda will not honor this contract. They will take advantage of the lull in the fighting to attack government positions. These new attacks will see al Qaeda joined by the very rebels we back. When Damascus responds to defend the majority of Syrians from these assaults, the United States will blame Syria and Russia for the breach.
The Obama administration outmaneuvered Russia. Syria’s adherence to the arrangement will see the minority rebels take over the majority of Syrians. If Asad resists, the Obama administration will lay the groundwork for the next president to order direct American military involvement.