While so far Russia’s only boots on the ground in Syria have been those protecting their own naval and air bases, Russia’s former Deputy FM Andrei Fyodorov has claimed that there have been discussions among the military leadership, and with President Vladimir Putin, about sending special forces.
There appears to be a significant split on the matter among Russia’s military and political leaders, with some believing the deployment is needed to turn the side of the Syrian War more decisively in favor of the Assad government.
On the other hand, many believe that escalating the Russian involvement to include a ground component would do serious harm to the negotiation process aimed at unifying the government with moderate rebels, and would also lead to further disputes with the US.
The US, of course, has its own ground troops in Syria, embedded with the Kurdish YPG. The addition of a Russian component on the ground, embedded with the Syrian military would just further cement Syria as a proxy war between the US and Russia.
Ground troops would also be a politically touchy subject within Russia, even if it was a small one, as Russia has generally avoided such deployments since their failed occupation of Afghanistan.
Russia isn’t quitting. And Obama has set the stage to legitimize Putin’s stand. And in fact, both Syria and Iran are ‘hands off’ for an allout war now.
Obama’s red line speech and then Putin’s and Assad’s acceptance of those demands will go down in history as one of the greatest antiwar coups in history.
Indeed it was a great moment for an antiwar chess move. But it also proved the key point — he purveyors of war never have intention of quitting, just change tactics. They absolutely believed that following the fulfillment of the chemical weapons destruction, they will just seamlessly continue low intensity war efforts, and diminishing Syria’s armed forces by attrition.
Did not count on the determination of Russia and its supporters to enter bombing campaign against UN defined terrorist groups. In panic, US and all the media, declared Al-Qaeda Al-Nusra Front — the rebels. And Russian campaign directed against — the rebels. But with US “fighting” ISIS with no visible result, and with the transparent effort by US forces to use Kurdish forces — decorated by some unspecified “Arabs”, “Turkmen”, and “Christians” (probably 1-2 each), it is clear that ISIS is not being harmed, that US is only eying Kurdish territory for a military base. With Russia already establishing a forward base and military medical facilities in Palmyra region, stage is set. If US continues to settle in the area on Euphrates and there is no peace framework by the time Ramadan ends, there is definitely going to be advance of Syrian troops with Russian support, and sizeable Iranian support — to take over Raqqa. US is being bogged down with the intricacies of nationality mix in the area, and is more then happy to keep ISIS unmolested, with the exception of Kurdish areas.
But US is losing political battle. Saudi Arabia has always had a good nose for the shifting winds of international politics. It headed the delegation of GCC in Moscow, and removed the head of he High Negotiation Committee, as Moscow demanded. He was US man, who had only one contribution to Geneva talks — to torpedo them. Saudi Arabia stood by that maximalist position, but now it can no longer do it. Since it is Saudi Arabia that was funded Jaish al Islam — US has no leverage, except to be mad with Saudi Arabia Russia has discretely given a nod to Saudi Arabia that the group will not be bombed, but it is clear that the group’s future is to join the voices of Assad’s loyal opposition, as the rest of the Saudi Negotiating team consists of emigrants who have nobody on the ground in Syria. Basically, after the removal of the only person who has “boots on the ground”, the rest of the Saudi-US negotiating team is toothless, a mere intellectual exercise. US is livid over “caving in” to Moscow, and is now threatening Saudi Arabia on multiple fronts. One is to revive the issue of Saudi responsibility in 9//11. This is a bogus case, but it is politically convenient pressure on SA. It does look however, that SA has some leverage of its own, even though not clear. Second attack on Saudi Arabia is in the form of fingering Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, for grave violations of human rights. Clearly, it did not bother US any of these atrocities in the past few years. Only now. Now, that the palace coup in Turkey did not succeed, and Davutoglu and all of his ministers are out of power in the ruling party, as well as government, and Turkey has changed the tune on Syria (no more Assad must go, but “it is up to Syrian people’), it is time to spite Turkey by supporting secessionists in Syria — hinting on more support for Turkish, Iraqi and even — yes, Iranian Kurds. For as long as US populace is wiling to pay, there will be more “opportunities” for keeping wars alive — on any territory, for any reason, for ever. And keeping out economy in the dumpster.
What will change the situation is when fatigue sets in Saudi Arabia. Now that Turkey will not get involved unless US stops supporting Kurds — there will be nobody in the region to stand by US. Kurds is all that is left — and I am not sure about their strategic choice. Syrian Kurds have an office opened in Moscow.
So, after Ramadan, it will be back to peace process, with all anti-Assad forces being either pacified, or outlawed — ISIS and Al-Qaeda, or it will be back to war — with Russia and Syria having to go beyond Palmyra. Russia has proposed to US a plan to collaborate in anti-ISIS offensive. But I fear that the neocons do not understand not to overreach. Kurds are fine, but they are not Syrian Army. They cannot be a ground force for US to rely on, unless it brings in thousands of US forces. Even then, the logistics of Syrian and Russian forces is better positioned to attack Iraqi border, and isolate Raqqa.
It all depends now on the off chance that US actually has a few adults left in the decision making capacity.
Just to make it clear, Assad never did want or need his chem/bio weapons and the world’s condemnation of his regime if he used them. Even though the US termed them WMD’s, they aren’t and pale in comparison to the real WMD’s which are used by the US and/or large militarized nations.
It was the same tactic used on Saddam and all it lacked was Russia being able to stand up and be a part of it. Without Russia, there was nothing Saddam could do, even though he has long before fulfilled the US demands. And has it not been for Russia, the same US tactic would have succeeded in Syria. And who could have doubted that the world would have been happy to see it happen, even though it was an old and used tactic.
It puts Russia and China in the cat’s seat for the foreseeable future and Obama can be credited for pulling it off. Brilliant move! Which took some balls because without the public appearance to worry about, Obama could have been found guilty of treason against his own country.
Nobody who posts here on this site want to talk about it. That’s a clear indication of what their problem really is. It can be narrowed down to either racism or domestic poliltics. And thank you for you valuable contributions!
Obama has killed more brown people in 7 years in office than the Ku Klux Klan has killed in its entire HISTORY. Over 250,000 murdered in Syria by Obama’s cannibal jihadis, over 30,000 murdered by Obama carpet bombing Libya for 7 months.
If you’re looking for racism, you might want to talk to Obama – he likes killing brown people FAR more than even racist white people do…
You can change the subject and you can run from it, but you can’t hide the truth. That stands for the entire world to see.
On your negative points against Obama, you may or may not be right but to argue it here is certainly not my mission. Fwiw, I’ll grant you your points as long as you understand that those points in no way minimize or disprove mine.
And if you want to argue the points I made then you would be at least showing your real mettle. I suspect you won’t and that’s mostly because you don’t care about what is happening in Syria and what would have happened in Iran.
“And if you want to argue the points I made then you would be at least showing your real mettle.”
I did argue the points you made with your little race-baiting jive and then you chickened out and said I was changing the subject. Now if you’re going to talk all tough and manly about arguing then YOU need to back your words up with something other than bullcrap.
“Fwiw, I’ll grant you your points as long as you understand that those points in no way minimize or disprove mine.”
TRANSLATION: You got NOTHING to refute anything that I said, and your points consist largely of licking Obama’s professional boots. Hardly the stuff of argumentation…
Don is one of those sad little limousine liberals who still believes Obama is a secret pacifist. Never mind the stacks of bodies and oceans of blood. Never mind the fact that Obama did everything he could to launch an invasion against Syria only to be outmaneuvered by Putin (where’s his Nobel Prize) with a peace deal Obama only begrudgingly signed onto when it was clear that his red-line false flag attack had failed (miserably.) Never mind reality or facts or common sense.
Don and and other phony-leftists like him were conned, hook, line and sinker, by Obama’s change we can believe in bullsh*t. They fell prey to another Kennedy-esque cult of personality. To admit the truth would be to admit they were duped. So they cling to there desperate fantasies and call anyone smart enough to see through them racists.
I’m not an American and I was fooled by nothing comrade. Your country, including your congresss and your elected leaders, all the way up to and including Obama are war criminals. Your citizens are complicit in their crimes just as surely as the people of Germany had to stand guilty of their country’s crimes against humanity. On that much we should be able to agree.
The point of contention you need to address is the very simple fact that Syria and Iran are now out of touch as future PNAC planned victims. Obama made that happen so maybe we can agree that he is a traitor to your country, of whom public opinion will never ever allow him to be charged and tried for his crimes that enabled Putin.
I hate to break it to you Don (actually, I not so secretly love it!) but if you really are Canadian, your hands are nearly as bloody as ours. Canada road shotgun with the States on nearly every single one of our imperial drive-by’s. Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, even our current effort to destabilize Syria. So this jingoistic, holier-than-thou, “I’m a Canadian, now repent!” bullsh*t only proves the depth of your ignorance.
As for Syria and Iran, and this is the last time I’m going through this with you, Your narrative lacks pretty basic common sense. Obama and his folks in the State Department sent chemical weapons from Gaddaffi’s stash in Libya to their darling jihadists in Syria. During a period of time when Assad had our boys on the ropes, Obama made repeated public statements that the US would only jump in to save said jihadist’s sorry asses if chemical weapons were used. He didn’t specify who had to use them but only one side had something to gain by doing so and it wasn’t Assad. This was a message to our jihadists to set off a false flag attack, which they promptly did. Obama then sent the wheels in motion for a Syrian Invasion. He sent battleships to the Mediterranean and told anyone who’d listen that he didn’t require congressional approval to start another war. Then Putin went behind Obama and hammered out a peace deal with Assad that stole international support from Obama’s war. Only then did Obama begrudgingly sign on to Putin’s deal and send his war to die in a Congress besieged by irate phone calls from antiwar Americans. This whole ordeal caused irreparable damage to Obama’s image both at home and abroad. There is no way he was secretly in on it. Especially when you consider that it was Obama’s boys in Syria who set it off to the tune of thousands of dead civilians. Your theory simply doesn’t add up.
As for Iran, a peace deal is good, don’t get me wrong. But Iran never had a nuclear weapons program to begin with and Obama knew it. To force Iran to humiliate itself by capitulating to a peace deal when they had done nothing wrong was cruel and unnecessary. Obama also left a clause in the deal which made it extremely easy for any future president to reverse it. Based on Obama’s carnage strewn foreign policy, I find it hard to believe that the Iranian deal was just about peace. I think it was about control. An attempt to bring a rising Iran out from under Russia’s influence and put them in situation where there refusal to cooperate with our demands could lead to a quick trip back to sanction-land, which would cause far greater discontent with Iran’s hopeful, young urban populace and set the stage for another Green Revolution.
Obama is not a peace president. America has never had a peace president and if Killary, Trump or Sanders are elected, that streak will continue. They all support regime change, of one kind or another, in Syria and beyond. They all endorse America’s interventionist foreign policy. As does your precious Trudeau. Both America and Canada remain hostages of the same multi-national Military Industrial Complex. This is the true enemy. Nation-states like ours are nothing but Quisling client-states owned by the same masters. The destruction of the state, all states is the only way we can free ourselves from this bondage.
And again I grant you your points. How can you argue against that kind of gift? And again I tell you that the holding stalemat in Syria and Iran is due to Obama’s manipulations and his deliberate empowering of Russia. (Putin) As an antiwar person those facts have to please you. Tell us now how that is so.
Obama’s deliberate empowering of Russia how, by rolling US troops to Russia’s borders? By ordering Turkey to shoot down a Russian bomber over Syria? By sending US navy destroyers to spy on Russian port facilities until the Russians send jets to chase them away?
Do you even read the drivel that you post, or does Langley pay you boys by the volume of words posted?
lol! re: “It all depends now on the off chance that US actually has a few adults left in the decision making capacity.” Good joke.
There will be changes and permutations …but…ultimately, the Russians will have to … one way or the other…. effectively tell the US Corp. to ‘F’ off.