The local ISIS affiliate in the Sinai Peninsula, previously known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, has claimed responsibility for today’s crash of a Russian passenger plane flying over the peninsula, a crash which killed 224 members.
ISIS claimed they’d “succeeded in bringing down a Russian plane,” adding that “more than 220 Crusaders were on board, all were killed. The Russian Transportation Ministry dismissed the claim, and Egyptian officials similarly said the plane crash was related to reported technical problems shortly after takeoff.
It doesn’t seem like everyone is treating this as a totally impossible scenario, however, as Air France announced in the wake of the crash that their own planes are going to avoid flying over the Sinai Peninsula for safety reasons “as a precaution.”
Egypt has had a war against ISIS, and its predecessor group, across Sinai since the summer 2013 military coup, and initially presented it as a crackdown against Islamists supportive of the ousted elected government. The war has raged ever since, with large casualty figures on both sides.
Now Lufthansa has also refused to fly in the area until the situation is cleared up. Let's say it was just a random accident, albeit at cruising altitude. We know what Egypt is now denying they received any distress call at any time from the pilot, in spite of an earlier story.
In the end, does it matter whether this opportunistic situation was a bomb or not? It can be spun as propaganda by any of the players. The larger game is to keep Russia from regaining Mideast influence as it had during Soviet times (cf. Nasser) and to keep it from expanding back into its older territories or spheres of force and influence. So it will be played, whatever caused it, which is almost an irrelevancy except that it allows for heated rhetoric to be taken off a back burner and made front and center.
I'm guessing this is an ISIS mindf%ck . Their culpability can't be discounted completely until the flight data recorders have been analysed . Meanwhile , they gain street cred and bargaining power .
Only dumb people believe the propaganda campaign slogan that ISIS was behind the plain crash. On the other hand, if this is proven to be a terror act, then those who are against Russian bombing against ISIS ,(US/Israel), are the main suspects, especially when Ms. Kay Griggs told the world that US military loves to bring down air plain to destroy its enemies.
This is probably right.
If this turns out to be true guess who gave them the weapons?
One hopes that the request of the 'moderate' Syrian rebels for MANPADS will continue to be denied.
you assume their requests have been denied. what happened to the thousands
that disappeared from libya via the benghazi transfer point operated by the
embassy-based spooks.
you don't seem to be taking into account the saudis.
Apparently that's unlikely because "IS" doesn't have the necessary weapons, supposedly. How someone can say that with such certainty I don't know. How can any one know what IS has or doesn't have, what they took from Libya, what they're getting from the US and it's allies. Them taking quick credit was perhaps somewhat predictable though.
Still, I don't like this at all. The timing is troubling, Russian plane, with almost all Russians on board over Egypt. It just doesn't seem coincidence, but it could be of course. Then there's the business of early info that is then denied or retracted–the pilot called in some problem, Egyptian "security forces" somehow concluding immediately and with certainty that it was mechanical failure–one of the rarest reasons for planes crashing.
I wish they released more photos and useful info. What's the area of debris? Pics of the engines? Landing gear? What has been released is puzzling to folks who know about this stuff.
Let's hope the Russians get the Egyptians to hand over the investigation to them. Otherwise this is going to be another mystery plane crash.
You're right Rick, I was thinking exactly the same. Such a hurried conclusion that it would have to be some mechanical failure! This could be done to buy some time of course, as at this stage it might not be very good for the stability of Russia or Egypt to unleash too quickly the strong emotions which come with any more sinister scenario.
In terms of timing and area, the IS remains a viable option. But if it would have been done by SAM, it's certainly possible to conceive of motives for certain politic forces inside Russia or elsewhere to have enabled the event, since it would have dual purpose: increase appetite for any domestic sell of the war and to change the political terms of the MH17 blame game as it appears as the reverse of that event.
It remains a dangerous event altogether, in both cases of sabotage and that of a direct attack. Generally frictions inside the societies of all the involved countries increase and stability decreases. Which can be used to push for more war and more restricting government oversight but just as well for its opposite: more protest, violence and fractioning. It all depends who is able to capitalize on it first.
But lets not forget that coincidental tragic events do happen, even when it seems against the odds. There have been too many examples of that in history, sometimes tragically misunderstood.
I read in the New York Times that the debris field is over a four mile area. This is not what Egypt or Russia has reported, so where does that information come from? Can it be shown on satellites? Is there any intelligence that could know that?
RT has satellite image. It is supposedly a large area albeit not of tiny pieces strewn. And passengers were also found miles away, so they say.
There might have been Libyan weaponry involved like
– S-200 (SA-5 Gammon,), predecessor to S-300, range 300 km
– S-125 (SA-3 Goa), range 35 km
– 2K12 Kub ( SA-6 Gainful), predecessor to BUK, range 24 km
<a href="http://(http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b96_1446309895)” target=”_blank”>(http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b96_1446309895)
Interesting note, the S-200 was involved in accidental downing of Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 by Ukraine in 2001.
My own guess from the list would be S-125 as candidate. using HE warhead. Common for Egypt & Libyan former operators, can reach 59,000 ft & is more mobile than others.
Now a likely candidate is the old fashioned bomb that ripped the rear apart.
Realizing that the Sinai is popular vacation spot for Israelis and that Israel has volunteered to help (one would not expect them not to care about Russians), I believe that there is an ethnic angle to this incident that is not being addressed.
OK, now put us out of our misery and tell us what you think this "ethnic angle" is.
I haven't heard that isreal has offered to help. But they're supposed to have satellite/radar/whatnot coverage of Sinai so they could offer that to the investigators.
In every war it is almost impossible to get the truth . Remember when Assad's forces used the gas and crossed Obama's red line . Obama did nothing . Now days it is considered just as likely that the US backed rebels used the gas . So it is possible the US supplied weapons brought the Russian crusaders plane down .
Where have you been? Obama was lying about chemical weapon attack. Zaman, a Turkish newspaper has recently published evidence on this issure and it was Turkish government, with Washington green light, that sent Sarin gas to the 'rebel' to kill the civilians in order to make Obama's attack an 'responsible' act, but of course we know both Erdogan and Obama are war criminals NOT Dr. Assad that his country has been invaded by Obama regime and Turkey sending their trained terrorists, ISIS and other terrorist groups. People is better to inform themselves before commenting not to repeat the lies of the war criminals..
"Now days it is considered just as likely that the US backed rebels used the gas."
Now days it is considered far more than likely.
There we go again " local ISIS affiliate in the Sinai Peninsula" How about showing us the document?
The chances that the plane was shot down are remote and the video I`ve seen is clearly a fake: the plane is flying too low and explodes in midair. The wreckage we`ve been shown reveals a plane largely intact but which broke in two. The BBC reports the Russians as saying that it broke up in midair whereas the theory up to now has been that it hit a mountain and then broke up. The theory of a midair break up fits better with a rocket than a mountain. That`s what happened to the Maylasian airliner: a rocket hit it just behind the cockpit and simply sliced the fuselage in two. Since the Egyptians are not telling airlines to avoid the area, the smear of the Ukrainians for not doing so will probably now be "forgotten".
Empire driven wars of aggression — How bad really is all the blowback
Having been a Systems Control Technician for 3M Co and having done the calibration and repair of the most sophisticated computer controlled robots in the industry, the probability I would say of it being caused by a terrorist attack is a hundred times greater then a sudden malfunction that gave no warning to the two pilots nor degreed fight engineer on board.
For a double to a quadruple backup system does all the warning devices have on a modern passenger jet.
Problem is, the corporate rich have a greater love of wealth then love of people, keeping passenger jets packed full of people are most essential to stability on Wall Street and until our corporate rich stop filling the Middle-East with vengeance, for an absolute, not will I set foot on a passenger jet. Having been a Systems Control Technician for 3M Co and having done the calibration and repair of the most sophisticated computer controlled robots in the industry, the probability I would say of it being caused by a terrorist attack is a hundred times greater then a sudden malfunction that gave no warning to the two pilots nor degreed fight engineer on board.
For a double to a quadruple backup system does all the warning devices have on a modern passenger jet.
Problem is, the corporate rich have a greater love of wealth then love of people, keeping passenger jets packed full of people are most essential to stability on Wall Street and until our corporate rich stop filling the Middle-East with vengeance, for an absolute, not will I set foot on a passenger jet.
Having been a Systems Control Technician for 3M Co and having done the calibration and repair of the most sophisticated computer controlled robots in industry, the probability I would say of it being caused by a terrorist attack is a hundred times greater then a sudden malfunction that gave no warning to the two pilots nor degreed fight engineer on board.
For a double to a quadruple backup system does all the warning devices have on a modern passenger jet.
Problem is, the corporate rich have a greater love of wealth then love of people, keeping passenger jets packed full of people are most essential to stability on Wall Street and until our corporate rich stop filling the Middle-East with vengeance, for an absolute, not will I set foot on a passenger jet.