Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has officially returned the mandate to form the government today, admitting that the ruling AKP will not be able to get the 50% of seats needed for a coalition. The deadline for forming a new government is Sunday.
Though in theory this should mean giving the second-place party in the June vote a shot before Sunday, the CHP has no route to get 50% either, since they’d need to convince the pro-Kurdish HDP and the overtly racist and loudly anti-Kurdish MHP to coexist.
What this means in practice is a quick move to new elections, with many expecting a new vote to happen either in October or November. The path to a “election government” will ironically force the AKP to partner with the HDP, the one party they didn’t court for their coalition.
A 10% electoral threshhold makes it unlikely that even with a new election any new parties will crop up, it’s almost certain to remain the same four. The big factor will be the new war against the Kurdish PKK, and whether it brings more nationalists to the side of the AKP, or potentially alienates their more moderate supporters and puts some other coalition in power.