If you thought the situation in Yemen couldn’t possibly be made more complicated, you haven’t been paying close attention to US foreign policy, which finds a way to insinuate itself at the most inopportune times imaginable.
Already being contested by multiple fighting forces, US drones launched multiple attacks near the key Yemeni town of Rada, killing 20 people, all of whom were labeled “suspected al-Qaeda.”
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been defending Rada, alongside Sunni tribal allies, from a recent offensive by the Shi’ite Houthis, who are themselves backed by parts of the Yemeni military.
The US drone campaign has long targeted AQAP, and that’s not a surprise. Yet getting itself so directly involved in a battle between AQAP and the Houthis risks being controversial, particularly with the Saudi government openly talking about fighting against the Houthis’ expansion in Yemen.
What is new? The talk about Al-Qaeda in Yemen is ABSURD. The "Al-Qaeda" in Yemen are SAUDI AGENTS that attract radicalized youth to its false banner. But its aim WAS AND IS to disrupt any possibility of Yemen having any form of indepenence of Saudi or US control. So, for as long as Central government was their child — it did not matter how many demonstrators were killed by tanks on the streets of Sana'a or Taiz. But — behold, the old US puppet, Saleh, turned on the master. Houthi Shiia were once the rulers of Yemen, and still highly regarded in the old Arabia Felix. However, by forcibly annexing the South (with the help of West), the state that was created could not function. Creating big central government was a mistake in a country that is highly decentralized, even confederalized. Those regions were not about to give money to central government to feed growing bureaucracy, and the South was not about to let them use their oil to be oppressed by Sana'a. Saleh was taken down by US in a velvet revolution, so that the central government will survive. Did not work. Now, Shiia tribes are well positioned with the approval of most of the population to restore order, to give autonomy to the South, and cut Central Government to size. In this, those in military that were loyal to Saleh are also involved. Now, the only card left to US and to Saudi Arabia is their personal Al-Qaeda, to try to stir up Sunni resentment against Shiia — a worthy formula used now in Iraq and Syria. But in Yemen may not work. Yemen is a country of fiercely free individuals, loyal to their regions, and warriors. With cities in poverty, and rapacious central government demanding more money — Yemen is ready for change. All that will be needed is to dismantle central powers of taxation, and restore tribal councils that will control the purse. With Houthis behind it, and all of the Sunnis in the South — only pro-Saudi forces are against. And to help them — US drones are NOT attacking Al-Qaeda, but are HELPING Al-Qaeda to keep the town of Radaa. Saudi Arabia has good reasons to be afraid. The border with Yemen is populated on both sides with Shiia population — and the rebellion of Shiia in Saudi Arabia will be in the center of the oil -rich territory. BUT — how will Saudi Arabia have any success in this country that looks like Afghanistan, with mountains and valleys well known by natives, and not friendly to foreign invadors. They can shoot from the skies, and kills civilians — sure enough, that is what Afhanistan was all about, but it will not result in any kind of peace. South will go — drones or not. Tribes will remain united even more after this consolidated US/Saudi intervention. And there is nothing that will prevent the Shiia tribes in Saudi Arabia to take arms — should Saudi Arabia intervene in Yemen. Saudi Arabia is already occupying Bahrain, keeping the majority Shiia essentially in a vast ghetto. It is already spending itself into oblivion by financing the coup generals in Cairo. It is major supplier of ISIL — arms, money, vehicles, good, water, telecom. Now, that is a kingdom that is ready to burst at seams!