The Geneva II talks will go on, and with no chance of a real ceasefire being negotiated, Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are pushing the idea of a “partial ceasefire” covering only a handful of areas, likely starting with Aleppo.
The talks aren’t going to include much in the way of rebels. The only group that may attend, the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) would only be coming because of US and British threats.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), who doesn’t like the SNC, isn’t invited to the talks, and has ruled out any deals, is almost certainly not going to honor any ceasefire imposed on them, nor are other rebel factions not involved in the talks.
Previous truces meant to get humanitarian aid into key areas haven’t been honored, after all. One of the biggest incidents was the Yarmouk Refugee Camp, where rebels attacked an aid convoy bringing food and medicine into the camp and looted it.
The Geneva talks begin on January 22 in Montreaux. They were originally scheduled for June in Geneva, but were repeatedly delayed.
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