The Obama Administration says that today’s United Nations report leaves “no doubt” that Syrian President Bashar Assad was behind the August 21 chemical attack in Ghouta, something they’d been claiming for weeks.
The claim isn’t backed up by anything inside the report itself, however, and indeed the UN report explicitly avoids trying to assign blame to either Assad or the rebels, who have each accused one another of the attack.
The report concluded that the strikes were fired from northwest of Ghouta, meaning the strike originated in the direction of the contested, but mostly rebel-held suburb of Arbin, and not Damascus itself. They speculated that the rockets were launched by some variant of the old BM-14 Soviet-made rocket launcher, which Syria’s military acquired in large numbers in the 1960′s.
The conclusion that the weapon was sarin-based doesn’t help either, since the Assad government of course has such weapons, but rebel factions have also bragged of their ability to produce sarin in videos of their own.
The use of chemical weapons is a war crime per the 1925 Geneva Protocol, though realistically they are just one of a myriad of war crimes committed by both sides in this ongoing war.
The report’s release was followed up by a separate news conference by the UN Commission of Inquiry on human rights violations in the ongoing civil war, saying there were 14 “potential” chemical weapons attacks since the conflict began.
The chairman of the commission, Paulo Pinheiro, declined to offer any details on those putative attacks, however, saying “we don’t have to share where, or when, or what moment.”
Some very good arguments here. I would add that Russian UN negotiator Vitaly Churkin asked how or why the Syrian government would fire 5 or 6 sarin laced rockets and not have one reported Syrian rebel victim in the August 21 attack at Ghouta.
For those with no account with Zuckerberg's NSAbook, you can get the report here:
http://www.un.org/disarmament/content/slideshow/S….
via
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Ghouta_chemical…
No chemical markers on that SARIN? What kind of CW degenerates so quickly that your sample can't be analysed? Crikey we can detect water traces from millennia ago on Mars, an Sarin ain't like water a-tall.
On the contrary. Evident chemical markers for Sarin breakdown detected.
didn't assign blame=assad didn't do it.
Looks unlikely. Contrary to earlier reports of rebels falling over themselves while transporting or mixing chemical weapons, dispersal clearly means seems to have been done via 400 mm soviet rocket of Syrian arsenal, the main design point of which is chemweapon dispersal and 333 mm homemade rocket with plug-on canister based on Syrian arsenal device. It might still be false flag but then it starts to become a very good one.
Is the neighborhood of Arbin the same as 'Irbin on the map provided by the US government on 8/30? http://www.armscontrol.org/files/images/08.30.201…
Greg Thielmann of the Arms Control Association was quoted in my city's newspaper saying the northeast of Damascus is under Government control. http://www.kentucky.com/2013/09/16/2826347/un-tea… Is Thielmann in error about who controlled the territory from which the rockets came? Is there any reason to suspect he's trying to misrepresent the situation?
Here's my updated analysis, based on Appendix 5 of the UN report http://www.scribd.com/doc/168606795/U-N-Report-on… plus the map I linked to in my previous message. I am not a professional intelligence analyst, and I have no clue about the range these rockets have. The UN team could trace trajectories of missiles for only 2 of the 5 sites they visited – Moadamiyah (Site 1) and Ein Tarma (Site 4). The rocket hitting Site 1 seems to have come from the northeast and the one hitting Site 4 from the northwest, if I read & understood the UN report correctly. The rockets could have been launched either from a government-controlled area (pink) or a non-color coded area north of the word "Damascus" on the map. Or from 2 different locations. In other words, inconclusive as far as I can tell. Knowing the range of these rockets would help.