Israeli officials are continuing to reiterate their threats to withhold Palestinian tax money if they are recognized by the UN, while President Obama made a call to PA President Abbas today warning him against going forward with recognition as a non-member state.
None of this is really “new” but US and Israeli officials continue to emphasize their disproportionate opposition to what is really a symbolic recognition at the UN, and Abbas is reiterating that the vote will take place this month, despite rumors he had planned to delay it.
The vote’s results are not in any real doubt, with the Non-Aligned Movement having endorsed the plan and amounting to a strong majority of the General Assembly in and of themselves. It is likely to be a landslide victory.
The question then is “how much of a landslide” and how many major countries the PA can get on their side. While Palestine’s recognition in the Muslim world is a given, the EU seems more or less split down the middle on the matter, with 12 nations reportedly committed to voting in favor. The EU as a whole is too split to likely make a unified statement, but a large number of the remaining 15 members may simply not vote at all as a compromise between rejecting Palestinian recognition and placating the US. The one solid “no” vote in the EU is likely to be Spain, which votes against all recognition on general principle, fearing the precedent could be used in ongoing secessionist battles inside Spain.
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