President Obama is widely expected to announce his plan for the long-promised July drawdown from Afghanistan this week, and many experts are tipping Wednesday as the most likely day for the announcement.
Predictions of exactly what he will announce are varying wildly, but what was once being called the “beginning of the end” for the Afghan War is now largely a political point. It is likely that the announcement will be quite small.
If indeed any troops come home in July at all. Though officials have pointed to the announcement as something very meaningful, speculation is growing that he will announce a “transition” of a small number of troops that will take 12-18 months, meaning the level of troops might remain virtually unchanged into 2012.
Which would suit the Pentagon just fine, as officials have urged the president to keep the surge going until Fall 2012. This would theoretically allow the president to time the drawdown for his reelection bid, though in practice it would be the latest in a long, unbroken line of delays keeping the war going into its second decade.
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