US Nuclear Test Ban Ratification ‘Just Not Going to Happen’
Senate Unlikely to Even Consider Treaty This Year
While the Obama Administration claimed a major victory on nuclear disarmament last week with the finalization of the new START treaty with Russia, repeated delays in the negotiations mean it will come at a serious cost to the overall effort to sell the moves to the Senate.
With mid-term elections just seven months away, analysts say that the effort to get the START treaty ratified will force the Obama Administration to abandon efforts on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
“It’s just not going to happen,” noted Joseph Cirincione of the Ploughshares Fund. The administration has yet to clarify its new timeframe on the ratification of the contentious test ban treaty.
The Senate has already rejected the CTBT once, in October of 1999. And while President Obama has advocated its ratification, it seems that putting it off past the mid-term election will almost certainly damage the chances that it sees the light of day.
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Joe Cirincione
April 3rd, 2010 at 5:32 pm
My full comment was that the test ban treaty is not going to be ratified this year. This does not mean that it will not be ratified next year. This will be more difficult, but certainly possible for a committed president. Ratification of any arms control treaty requires that a sizable majority of the Senate is convinced of its value to the national security of the United States. It was never going to be a matter of winning over 7-8 votes for the 67 vote minimum needed.
So mid-term elections that result in a loss of 2-4 Democratic seats should not impact the prospects too badly. When the test ban treaty is ratified it will likely have over 70 senators in support.
Joe Cirincione