In a report which will be presented next week to a conference on the future of US-Iran policy, the Associated Press is reporting that experts will caution President-elect Barack Obama that adding more threats against Iran will not help resolve disputes between the two nations, and that “an attack would almost certainly fail.” After disastrous US enforced regime changes in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the report will warn that the Iranian public will be even less willing to support similar action against Iran.

That certainly supports the position being taken in Iran. Senior military commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari says he believes the US military is in no position to launch any attacks against Iran.

Meanwhile, President-elect Obama has a decision to make with regards to a congratulatory letter he received from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shortly after his election. Though Obama’s public accusations against the Iranian government have stifled hope for major policy changes for the moment, his campaign comments about direct talks have left the question somewhat open.

As is often the case in the world of US bellicosity toward Iran, analysts are warning Obama that any reply to the letter itself could be a “trap,” which would improve Ahmadinejad’s political position at a time when domestic problems are lowering his popularity. Obama’s earlier accusations cost Ahmadinejad politically with his opponents, interestingly those who generally favor rapprochement with the US, attacking him for making the conciliatory move.

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