On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing to take “action” against Iran’s nuclear program.
“The IDF is currently working to build up our forces and is preparing itself for any scenario, including one in which we would need to take action to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons,” Gantz said at a graduation ceremony for new IDF officers.
Gantz listed a series of steps Iran has taken recently to boost its civilian nuclear program as examples that the Islamic Republic is racing towards a bomb. But that is not the case, Tehran’s increased nuclear activity has a civilian purpose.
Iran’s recently increased some uranium enrichment to 20 percent and started to produce uranium metal to fuel the Tehran Research Reactor, a nuclear facility built by the US in the 1960s that can make medical isotopes.
If the Israelis are really concerned with Iran’s recent steps, a way to reverse them is a US return to the nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA. But instead, Israel opposes a revival of the agreement and continues to make threats against Iran.
Some Israeli officials have even directly threatened that if President Biden returns to the JCPOA, Israel will attack Iran. Other officials, like Gantz, have made more veiled warnings about Israel having to take “action.”
Gantz said that if a new agreement is signed with Iran, it must be stricter than the JCPOA and address Iran’s activity across the region. If not, Gantz warned, a nuclear arms race could start in the Middle East. Gantz’s comments ignore the fact that there is already a nuclear-armed country in the region, which is Israel.
There is no realistic action that Israelis, Saudis and USAians can take, whether independently or collectively to set back Iran’s Nuclear knowledge and scientific base. An attack by the IDF against Iran’s nuclear installations may just create a strong public opinion support for Iran’s defense establishment to fast track making nuclear weapons as deterrence. The know-how and technology for bomb making is 70 years old. Nuclear armed India, Pakistan, North Korea are a few examples that illustrate this point.
The world has no idea how many nuclear weapons our little buddy possesses. But I think all would agree that the number is well over what Iran or anyone else would want to be hit with. Israel wants to be the regional hegemon unchallenged so they can bully all their neighbors. Treating Iran as a threat is part of the the show of poor little me that keeps the threats and aid welfare. We need to accept this as a tune that they use to avoI’d being a normal peaceful independent state when they huff and puff to inflate it.
Never mind the Pu based warheads that Dimona can put out per year plus suspected Tritium enhancement. Think M.A.D. between Iran and Israel because:
1) Israel has no strategic depth hence Yinon plan and Abraham “piece” (misspellings are intentional) accords
2) Israel’s public is casualty averse.
3) Israel’s worst nightmare is to be overrun (what good are those nuclear weapons when you are fighting at home?)
4) Israel is highly dependent on third party re supply chain (i.e. air bridge from USA during Yom Kippur war)
5) Israel’s layered air defense shield consists of a combination of USAian Patriot and THAAD plus indigenous David Sling, etc, SAM batteries that have never been tested in stopping salvos of low radar observable cross section cruise missiles.
6) Iran’s conventional cruise and ballistic missile capabilities have demonstrated attaining low C.E.P. and low radar observable cross section.
7) Iran’s MIC doesn’t seem to be dependent on third party re supply chain
8) Iran’s topography doesn’t invite any would be invader
9) Iran’s Shiite allies are spread geographically to operators in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.
In other words, Iran has strategic depth and its civilian population may absorb more powerful blows than its foes.
10) Israel highly capable Air Force preempted by attacking all her neighbours air fields, hangars and aircraft fleets in 1967. What prevents Iran from doing the same? In case the IAF succeeds in launching an attack, where are they going to land if all the runways, carriers and hangars are destroyed?
Their Mutually Assured Destruction is established even with conventional means against nuclear weapons.
If Iran had said they were going to take military action if Trump went thru with his lethal weapons yard sale, called the “Abraham Accords”, what would have been our response? I’m thinking it wouldn’t involve sending them $3.8 billion annual tax dollars their way or using our veto at the UN to protect them from resolutions denouncing their human rights violations.
If Israel really thought Iran was a threat, they would have attacked already. But they’re using Iran as a boogeyman- just like we are- to distract their people from the real issues at hand.
They are doing more than that. Israel is a lawless country, violating all norms of humanity in their treatment of occupied population.
Their ability to do so, as well as their economic and defense capabilities are based on the premise of US remaining dominant power, capable of cowering anyone that would challenge Israel’s behavior.
Israel can see US power diminishing. Economically, militarily and politically — US ability to deter has diminished. And it will be then only the matter of time before Israel is seriously challenged. Once Israel is challenged on moral ground, subject to censure, pressured to end daily abuses — Israel will not enter serious internal political turmoil.
Turmoil is already there — as Israel’s expansion into Syria has been blocked, and US status in Syria and Iraq. questioned globally.
Pressure on Russia from Europe has a transparent end — to force Russia to split its military attention between protecting its European flank. and defending its Caspian soft underbelly— Iran. Israel is not worried about its security — it is worried increasingly about US not challenging Russia militarily. And Syria is not a good place for challenge – too close to Israel, and both Iraq and Turkey have vested interests in keeping Syria out of conflict. This will also undermine US ability to stay in Iraq, while not really being able to change status quo in Syria.
Iran, however, is a potential game changer. Chaos on Caspian will harm Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan — in short, set back any chances for a long time for regional development, will force hand of Saudis and UAE — which contrary to public opinion are NOT interested in war with Iran. Or war period. The only reason Saudis are in war with Yemen, is ABOUT Yemen. About US hanging around to influence whatever entity and gain control of Mandeb Straits. Iran war would give US real control over Saudis, Kashoggii narrative is just to continue showing displeasure over Kingdom direction but personify it in MBS. Hitler, Sadam, Miloshevic. Assad, MBS, Hitler, and so in a circle,
But as tempting as this bold stroke may be — risks are equally great. To Israel — risk is long term should this prove to be US Suez moment. Israel can recover, get itself into Russian graces. But for US — any kind of unpredictable failure can be dangerous, domestically and globally. It is not likely that Russia and China are sitting idly by and not have both the countermeasures and attack plan.
Israel is pushing US to act sooner rather then later, and capitalize in perceived military advantage. But this assumes that Russia and China are being transparent about their capabilities. Same can be said by US, but with sticking so long with F-35 before hinting pulling a plug, there is a doubt about its readiness. The state if US missile defense capabilities, or lack thereof is a worst kept secret. And while Israel is revved up — and it can cause mischief, US will hopefully decide what is in its interest.
Excellent.
Still, they think they can get away with “limited/ surgical/targeted” strikes against strategic assets using intel gathered from the IAEA inspections. But first they have to maneuver Tehran into appearing the malefactor, and Rouhani/Zarif are just not cooperating. They need to avoid a blow-up at the UN, emergency Security Council (even France & Germany) condemning Israel/US.
Gantz: you have Iran’s permission to make a movie of attacking their country…! Don’t forget to call Hollywood…!
In other words, they’ll be getting the US to take action using whatever means possible. Be on the lookout for more propaganda and “attacks” to be blamed on Iranian backed groups.
Yes, but, their soldiers will first have to get their vaccine passport. What sickening hypocrisy.
Well then that would make them the aggressor to be condemned by the world’s peace-keeping people and the peace-loving nations of the world (if there are any).
This is all being done to probe and gauge Biden.