Sources said that President Donald Trump has informed his senior advisers that he does not plan to escalate attacks on Iran unless provoked by the Islamic Republic or Ansar Allah – the Houthis – in Yemen.
Reuters reports, speaking with three people familiar with the matter, that in national security meetings, the President has indicated that he is considering holding off on ordering new strikes against Iran. However, the sources said Trump has yet to make up his mind on how to resolve the nine-month-long conflict, noting the President could be provoked to escalate the conflict by Iran or Ansar Allah in Yemen.
It’s unclear what Tehran or Sanaa would have to do to provoke Trump to escalate the conflict. Iran has attacked tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz on a near-daily basis, and last week hit an Omani island. Ansar Allah, the ruling faction in Yemen with ties to Iran, has hammered Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones while taking a significant amount of territory from Saudi-backed forces in Yemen.
The US has bombed Iran’s Qeshm Island this month, but Trump has described the strikes as minor.
Publicly, Trump has attributed his decision not to attack Iran to requests from Washington’s Middle East allies not to escalate the conflict. Last week, he told Stephen A. Smith that, “I could end it immediately, but at the request of the nations that I am looking to protect, we are doing it a little bit longer way, a bit more civilly.”
On Saturday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US intelligence community estimates that Iran still has 1,500 to 2,500 missiles in its arsenal. While the estimate was assessed with “low confidence,” a US official told the outlet that Iran’s missile stockpile “has also informed internal Trump administration discussions about whether to relaunch strikes alongside Israel.”
Additionally, Reuters also reported that US intelligence agencies have assessed that renewed attacks on Iran would not significantly alter Tehran’s negotiating demands.
Last week, it was reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was making daily calls to Trump asking him to order new attacks on Iran. So far, Trump has resisted Netanyahu’s requests.
The President has indicated that he prefers to continue economic pressure on Iran rather than launch another major round of strikes.
