Rubio Says Chance of a ‘Peaceful Agreement’ With Cuba Is ‘Not High’

The comments come after the US indicted Cuba's former president, setting up a pretext for war

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Thursday that the chances of reaching an “agreement that’s peaceful” with Cuba are “not high,” comments that come after the US indicted a former Cuban president, setting up a pretext for a potential attack.

“They’re not going to be able to wait us out or buy time,” Rubio said, referring to the Cuban government.

“We’re very serious. We’re very focused. As I told you a moment ago in the context of Iran, the president’s preference is always a negotiated agreement that’s peaceful … That remains our preference with Cuba. I’m just being honest with you. You know, the likelihood of that happening, given who we’re dealing with right now, is not high,” he added.

Rubio speaks to the press before departing Homestead Air Base, Miami, Florida, en route to Sweden, May 21, 2026 (State Department photo)

The US has been holding negotiations with the Cuban government, which included a visit to Cuba by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, but it’s unclear what sort of deal would satisfy the Trump administration, as Rubio has made clear his ultimate goal is regime change.

When asked if the administration would use force against Cuba, “The president always has the option to do whatever it takes to support and protect the national interest and national security of the United States. He has the option to do that if there’s a threat to the national security of the United States. And he has shown his willingness to do that when he identifies such a threat.”

On Wednesday, the US Justice Department unsealed an indictment against 94-year-old Raul Castro, the brother of long-time leader Fidel Castro, suggesting the administration will follow a similar playbook as it did with its attack on Venezuela to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, though in Cuba, the US will likely try to topple the entire government.

Castro was targeted over his alleged role in the 1996 downing of two planes belonging to the Brothers to the Rescue, a Cuban exile group formed in the US by a CIA-trained Cuban exile involved in attacks on Cuba in the 1960s. At the time, US officials were concerned that Cuba would shoot down BTTR planes because of their frequent intrusions into Cuban airspace. The 1996 incident killed four Cuban Americans.

Dave DeCamp is the news editor of Antiwar.com, follow him on Twitter @decampdave.

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