The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia, the New START, is set to expire on February 5, which will leave the world’s largest nuclear powers with no limits on the deployment of their nuclear weapons.
The New START caps the number of nuclear warheads either side can deploy at 1,550 and also limits the deployment of delivery systems. In 2023, Russia said it was suspending participation in New START, citing US support for Ukrainian attacks on Russian facilities housing nuclear weapons, but both Washington and Moscow said they would continue to abide by the limits set by the treaty.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered the US a one-year extension of the New START limits to give time for diplomacy to negotiate a replacement treaty, but, according to Russian officials, the US hasn’t formally responded to the proposal. In an interview with The New York Times last week, President Trump appeared unbothered by the impending deadline.
“If it expires, it expires. We’ll do a better agreement,” Trump told the paper. He also said that any extension should include China, but Beijing has a significantly smaller nuclear stockpile than the US and Russia.
During his first administration, Trump also insisted that China must join the New START for it to be extended, as its first expiration date was February 5, 2021, with an option for a five-year extension. At the time, China said that it wouldn’t join the negotiations unless the US significantly reduced its nuclear arsenal.
The first Trump administration made no progress toward replacing New START, and it wasn’t until President Biden came into office at the end of January 2021 that the US and Russia agreed to go with the five-year extension. The treaty doesn’t allow a further extension, but Putin’s offer would involve a mutual agreement to continue abiding by the limits for another year.
Experts told Responsible Statecraft that allowing New START to expire without a replacement could lead to a major new arms race between the two nuclear powers. Russian officials have also warned that President Trump’s plan for a new major missile defense system for the US, dubbed the “Golden Dome,” could also spark a new arms race.
