Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will meet with President Trump at the White House this Tuesday and is expected to push for the US to provide a security guarantee to Saudi Arabia and for a deal to arm Riyadh with F-35 fighter jets.
The Saudis have long sought a defense pact with the US, and their renewed interest has been prompted by Trump providing a security guarantee to Qatar after Israel bombed Doha. Qatar became the first Arab country to receive a guarantee from the US that is similar to NATO’s Article 5, though it was given through an executive order, which could be ignored by future US presidents. Saudi Arabia is expected to seek a stronger guarantee.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan recently signed a mutual defense pact that places Riyadh under Islamabad’s nuclear umbrella. Analysts suggested in comments to Middle East Eye that the US and Saudi Arabia may reach a deal that puts Saudi Arabia under US nuclear protection instead and removes it from Pakistan’s.
President Trump told reporters on Friday that he is considering a deal to sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, though US officials told The Associated Press that it was unlikely over concerns that the sale would upset the US commitment to ensure Israel maintains a “Qualitative Military Edge” over other countries in the region. Israel is currently the only Middle Eastern country to have a fleet of F-35s, which it regularly uses to bomb its neighbors.
According to a report from Axios, Israeli officials want Trump to condition the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Riyadh on the condition that Saudi Arabia normalizes relations with Israel. Trump has said that he hopes the Saudis join the Abraham Accords, but that is not likely to happen in the near future, as Saudi officials have maintained they won’t normalize relations with Israel until there’s a guaranteed pathway for a Palestinian state.
As part of its normalization deal with the UAE in 2020, Israel agreed that the US could sell F-35s to Abu Dhabi, but the sale was put on hold, and it’s unclear if it will ever go through. On top of concerns that Israel would lose its edge in the region, US officials also worry that selling F-35s to Gulf Arab states could lead to China getting a hold of the technology.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also known for brutal attacks on civilians during their war against the Houthis in Yemen from 2015 to 2022, but that isn’t a factor in the US hesitancy to arm them with F-35s since the US supported that bombing campaign and launched its own brutal airstrikes in Yemen this year.
