Speaking to journalists in Brussels on Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned “We don’t have much time. We have a lot of injured, killed, both military and civilians. So we do not want this war to last for years. Therefore, we have to prepare this plan and put it on the table at the second peace summit.”
Zelensky stressed the need for a peace process that would bring an end to the war with Russia, citing Ukraine’s mounting casualties.
Since 2022, Zelensky has pushed a 10-point peace plan that would see Russia withdraw from all of Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory. The Kremlin has outright rejected that proposal, insisting it will not give up several formerly Ukrainian regions it has annexed. Still, Zelensky proposed his formula to other world leaders at a peace summit that was held in Switzerland earlier this month, although no Russian officials were invited.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has articulated a potential peace deal that would see Ukraine agree to denuclearization, neutrality toward NATO, and recognition of territory annexed by Moscow since 2014.
As the war has progressed, the West has struggled to maintain the flow of weapons to Kiev, and Ukraine has been unable to replace its battlefield casualties with newly trained soldiers. The Kremlin has adjusted to a wartime economy and has a larger number of young men to serve in the military, giving Moscow a distinct advantage as the conflict has become a war of attrition.
While Kiev and Moscow have been tight-lipped about their own causality figures, estimates for both sides range in the hundreds of thousands. To fill its ranks, Ukraine has recently expanded its conscription laws and cracked down on those seeking to avoid the draft. The ex-head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Yuriy Lutsenko, estimated the number of dead or seriously wounded Ukrainian soldiers was over 500,000 in January.
Kyle Anzalone is the opinion editor of Antiwar.com, news editor of the Libertarian Institute, and co-host of Conflicts of Interest.
Zelenskyy's main problem is that the west is (understandably) afraid of escalating too fast and concerned with a very clear Russian defeat. IMO this is a much exaggerated fear for several reasons.
First reason the Russians are not about to be defeated – so not a big chance of Russian outright defeat on the battle field.
Second reason the Russians are not evil and not suicidal – even should they fail to take Ukraine they like the Soviets before them will not prefer suicide over failure to secure the goals of a mission.
But given this position of the west, and it is not likely to change at the kind of speed the Ukrainians would need it to, Zelenskyy's main secondary problem is that he cannot actually neither offer nor accept peace on terms that would satisfy Putin.
The issue being not only that Putin wants the Ukrainians to cede territory for peace, but also that he requires western sanctions to be lifted – a thing Zelenskyy has no power to grant – and a thing that the west is not going to agree to.
Damn right the Russians are not about te be defeated. Damn right also the Russians are not evil or suicidal. They are also not Soviets part deux. Their goals however are clear and Putin stated them once again in his latest offer, right before that ridiculous piece of performance art in Switzerland, where the Swiss shed their very last pretense of neutrality. That wasn't directed at Zelensky. It was in March-April of 2022. But now it is passed over his head directly at his bosses in Washington, making it clear that to them Zelensky is a nobody.
It isn't, hasn't and has never had anything to do with "taking" Ukraine. That would be Western propanda, which once used to be very sophisticated and cunningly deceptive, but which has now been so divorced from reality as to be merely a source of comedy.
But if the West persists in their criminal idiocy the end outcome might be that whatever is left of Ukraine isn't worth taking by anyone, not even Ukrainians.
For one thing Zelensky does have right: time is not on his side. Tragically reality isn't either.
Not sure your comment makes any elucidating points – you are not addressing the issue that Putin wants sanctions lifted as a peace condition.
Thus he wants concessions from a countries not at war with Russia. Hence quite apart from the concessions he wants from Ukraine and that most certainly involves territorial concessions he demands things that the Ukrainians cannot grant him.
That just about guarantees that Putin either have to fight a forever war, make peace with whatever rump Ukraine exist at the time without getting sanctions lifted or find a way to make the West bend the knee.
But the West IS at war with Russia; just fighting it with their Ukrainian sockpuppets. By the latest poll, 72% of the Ukrainians still living in Ukraine under Ukrainian control want peace negotiations. Zelensky says no, because the west is urging (telling? forcing?) him to say no. Putin's proposal is FOR the west, not Zelensky, as this war has shown that it is the west calling the shots. So yes; its appropriate for him to include the demand to drop sanctions; because the west are the ones controlling the (lack of) negotiations.
Mainstream media is getting ridiculous. CNN headline claims Russia cannot attack NATO directly so it waging a hybrid war. Accusation is indeed a confession!
The most bizzare arguments swirl around territorially concessions.
First. No country can take away the rights from its population on the basis of nationality, ethhnicity, religion or race.
Second. If a country choses to
go down that path — wanting land but not the people, the mankind is going back to barbarity.
We saw this return to barbarity many times since the end of the Cold War.
Breakup of former Yugoslavia with attendant genocides, and the massive propaganda that went after victims while praising victimizers.
We saw chopping up of South Sudan with attendant genocide.
And the merciless destruction of millions of Hutu people while pitying and exaggerating Tutsi victims,
We hyperventilated over ISIS , but never realy pittying their victims. Of course, since victims were mostly Shia population, Christians or secular Sunni – we fluffed over the very pragmatic goals of this presumably crazed religious group,
And all along we watched the occupied Palestine in slow motion genocide.
But now we are living through the acceleration. We saw removal of all rughts frim ethnic Russians in Ukraine — and said nothing. We saw firing of ethnic Russians, property seizures, jailing, murders, disappearances, Said nothing. Military assaulrs on Russian ethnic majority areas that did not go quietly into that night -/ we saw, said nothing.
.
Ukraine and its sponsor, NATO are clear — Ukraine claims its territorial integrity but does not want ethnic Russians. Simple, keep the land — get rid of people. Old fashioned Western colonial principles.
There are other regions in Ukraine that would happily today join Russia if given a chance. Kharkov, Dnyepro, Mykolaevo, Odessa.
Ukraine STILL has an opportunity to be a viable state without the southeastern regions, But it will have to rid itself of Nazi policies, restore the right of Russians and other minorities, and be politically and militarily neutral.
As for the shocking Russian demand that following agreement sanctions be lifted — it is shocking that it is shocking, If Ukraine and Russia reach peace agreement – why would NATO still need sanctions?
Of course we know why. With or without Ukraine, West is walking down the well trodden colonial path — craving Russia’s land and its riches,
Barbarism is back for all to see. Cqn the world allow to go backwards after it said — never again.
The result – the world is getting more and more destabilized. Middle East is smouldering.
Indo-Pacific storms are starting.
Besides the well known Taiwan and Philippines crises — East Pacific is returning to August 17, 1945 when Japanese Kwandong continental army surrendered to Soviet Union. When Soviet Union ceded half of Korean peninsula to US forces. And McArthur proclaimed US military intent to enter Korea September 15, 1945.
The uncharacteristically pompous mutual defense pact between Russia and North Korea is promising to be a rerun of events lleading up to tge division of Korea.
Gauntlet has been thrown into the already stormy Indo-Pacific thestre.
“As for the shocking Russian demand that following agreement sanctions be lifted — it is shocking that it is shocking, If Ukraine and Russia reach peace agreement – why would NATO still need sanctions?”
Even assuming that Ukraine was in full control of its own military/political decision-making, it would have no power whatsoever to commit NATO to anything, including sanctions relief.
So in that respect, the Russian demand is “hey, Ukraine — as part of any agreement, you’ll have to do something you can’t do.”
Not that that matters, since the Russian proposal — “give us everything we’ve been trying and failing to get for 28 months and we’ll stop trying and failing to get it” — was stupid in the first place.
It was a peace proposal to U.S.
Ukrainians can stop fighting like the Afghans did before them – they are less controlled by the West than the Afghans were after 20+ years of occupation. I.e. the Ukrainians will end fighting when they are as unmotivated to do so as teh Afghans.
Given that the west is not going to lift the sanctions the peace proposal is nothing of the kind. You failed to answer how Putin was/is going to force the west to accept his terms.
I didn’t “fail” to answer; I did answer; you “failed” to understand it. Read the article today on how the west blocked the peace process in 2022. The west has been pulling the strings in Ukraine since 2014; Zelensky is a sock puppet. Negotiations will be with the west, using the Ukrainians as a front. So, since the west has imposed the sanctions, they will have be on the table for negotiations to occur. Zelensky on his own has no power to negotiate; if he goes against his handlers, he will find himself ousted, and a more pliant client installed.
So what is your answer to how Putin will force the west to lift sanctions – because nothing you write I read shows how he would be able to force this.
You seem to believe that the west needs to negotiate
But even if Ukraine loses like the Afghans did to the Talibans there is not as I see it a reason for the west to enter any negotiations – can you explain how you see that as something the west needs?
Yes; I believe negotiations are controlled by the west, and Zelensky is just a puppet. He was ready to negotiate in 2022; but Biden and Johnson prevented it, so he has instead presided over the destruction of his country. Nor am I the only one stating that; see today’s articles on this site, https://original.antiwar.com/mbenjamin/2024/07/01/confronting-natos-war-summit-in-washington/, and https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4741597-save-ukraine-from-american-meddling/
The west (US and UK, primarily) wants to weaken Russia, and will fight to the last Ukrainian to do so, and as long as they have a willing (or at least pliant) minion in Ukraine willing to go along (while enriching himself and his friends handsomely off of siphoned “aid” money) they will continue to support more war, and pretend that it’s Ukraine that wants to keep fighting.
Putin can’t “force” the west to lift sanctions; but unless they are all willing to see what is left of Ukraine suffer even more, they will have to negotiate. I think most of europe, other than the Baltics and the UK, are coming around to that position. Sanctions have hurt them, at least as much as they have hurt Russia; but they can justify the pain to their people by claiming it’s vital to support Ukraine. Once it’s clear Ukraine is finished, what point is there for Europe to continue the sanctions? The US (and their pissant little half-men running dogs in the UK) can go fuck themselves; the EU-Russia connection is far more valuable than any US-Russia connection could be. We’ll see.
I perfectly understood that to be your view – and for the sake of taking the debate further did not challenge this point.
So the assuming the west is in control of negotiations but not in actual control of the Ukrainian units fighting on the front, what would the west do when the Ukrainians no longer wants to fight or are just beaten?
So you accept my point that Putin cannot force this upon the west?
I've seen the polls support for the Ukrainians is not weaning.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/03/28/should-the-eu-continue-to-support-ukraine-our-poll-finds-europeans-are-in-favour
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/03/28/should-the-eu-continue-to-support-ukraine-our-poll-finds-europeans-are-in-favour
Sanctions have not been painless but there is very little pressure for lifting sanctions – people understand that the alternative will be as bad or worse.
The continuation of the rules based world order – the one Putin wants to end – without which we will have much more rearmament and far more wars.
If you lived in Europe you likely would understand that it is during this world order that we have seen the most economic growth.
Well that is not how the votes were cast for the European parliament.
I'll give you the whole quote from "DG COMM’s Public Opinion Monitoring Unit has assembled a range of recent surveys and polls from across the EU and beyond giving insight into how citizens see Russia’s war against Ukraine as well as its ripple effects. These polls were published between 08 December 2023 and 21 February 2024."
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/files/be-heard/eurobarometer/2022/public-opinion-on-the-war-in-ukraine/en-public-opinion-on-the-war-against-ukraine-20240223.pdf
In short even if the west were in control there is no pressure on the western governments for ending support let alone sanctions even though a majority of Europeans believe that Ukraine is going to lose!
https://www.politico.eu/article/europeans-think-ukraine-lose-war-russia-survey/
But I think there is; the pressure will come from their own people (at least in Europe) who are suffering from the sanctions as much as the Russians are; witness today’s story on this blog; https://news.antiwar.com/2024/07/02/hungarys-orban-visits-ukraine-suggests-zelensky-consider-a-ceasefire/
Witness the big results from the recent elections; Europe is starting to rebel against the globalist interventionists; If pressure in the EU is to force a ceasefire, they obviously need Russia to agree; and if Russia’s terms are to drop the sanctions, I believe they will. The US can do what it wants; the only sanctions that should matter to Russia are those from the EU. Russia doesn’t need the US as either a market, or a source of anything; Europe is the big prize.
I would love to see closer EU/Russia relations, with the freezing out of the US and UK. I think a lot of people in France and Germany are starting to feel the same way. We’ll see.
As I've just shown there was no desire in Europe for peace negotiations (in February 2024) and that in spite of the Europeans in general overwhelmingly believing that Ukraine is losing.
That the Hungarians (or the Ukrainians) are leaning towards peace has no bearing on the attitude in Europe in general.
We know this since Hungary has been supporting Russia since the start of the SMO.
Where exactly do you see this? In France NR got about as many votes as could be expected but primarily based on growing issues with immigrants.
There is no polls suggesting that there is a major shift in the support for Ukraine – anywhere that I can see.
The likely fall of Sunak's government in UK also is not linked to, but to dissatisfaction with government incompetence.
The point being that there is no demand for peace from the populations – I do not see where you get that idea from.
The support for ending sanctions is very low in most EU countries – with very few exceptions.
At most you could expect that the Europeans would end their direct support for Ukraine, but even that is a longshot.
To change this to a ending of sanctions would end EU – because the support for Ukraine is so overwhelming in the north east of EU and they would regard it as a stab in the back should enough of the rest try to force this through parliament.
I guess we will, and in not too distant a future the French will have a new government voted in by 7 of July, UK by tomorrow.
I'm seeing no evidence of a major shift in ground support for Ukraine – let alone anyone with any kind of majority support suggesting lifting of sanctions.
We have put too much into Ukraine and soured relations with Russia too badly for any kind of back down – too much has also been invested in coping without Russian exports.
As I said; we’ll see. I disagree with your position; but time will tell,
Accepted – noting while it is my position the point I was making was that it is the position of the significant majority in the north of EU (and all of UK), but also noting that it is not the majority opinion in the south (Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania Slovakia OR Hungary and more interestingly About 50/50 also now Germany, France, the Netherlands and Austria). As I found out while investigating your claim. (see: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/europe-poll-ukraine-russia/).
Read the article it does to some extend support your view that support was weaning in early 2024 (I have no data of the attitude after US aid was resumed). The other point I was making was that while this change if it was to be sufficient could at most lead to EU ending support for Ukraine, it could not lead to EU lifting sanctions, the argument for this is that it would break with the EU notion that EU does not break ‘unity’ if doing so comes at the cost of vital interests of even just one or a few small members.
Best recent example of this was how EU refused to accept a more profitable deal (for basically all of EU except Ireland) because this would violate what Ireland maintained was their vital interests (i.e. the Good Friday agreement).
Putin doesn't need to find a way to make the West, Europe in particular, bend the knee as they are in the process of kneecapping themselves. It is quite a remarkable sight to behold. The denial that the US and their European lapdogs are at war with Russia is not serious. And not being serious about it serves no real purpose. It certainly isn't conducive to understanding what's going on.
The Russians would prefer to resume normal trade relations sure, not have their assets stolen sure, not having being forced to intervene sure, not being waged war against sure, but the terms of normalcy have changed already. Forever.
Normal trade simply will not return – the investments in changing has already been incurred – there is no way back and much too much resistance against turning back.
Thus even if you were right and this was what was the biggest problem for European (or the US) economies they would rather stick with the sanctions than try a new world order where trade would be hurt badly by nations redrawing borders left and right – and hence rearmament.
Z, your time is up. Doing the same stupid thing over and over won't yield a different result.
Better arguments needed unless you want to conclude that this logic works both ways.
Ultimately the stupid thing being done over and over by Ukraine and Russia and the west is militarism, killing people to gain power, instead of humanism, using our resources to serve and uplift all of humanity. Even macguyver, the classic cold warrior, never shoots at a person again. (After the pilot first episode, for 6 seasons).
we need shared collective security, as Russia has been saying for years.
“we need shared collective security, as Russia has been saying for years.”
Too bad that most of Russia’s neighbors believe that they need security against primarily Russia then.
most of Russia's neighbors can't afford to be adversarial with Russia on their own, and France Germany and the US are starting to realize the war is costing a lot, not winnable, and losing them both trade and elections. Peace is coming, over the bitter objections of the warmongers.
Peace is not coming, that is the very essence of ending the rules based world order – so there really is not the option you propose available. Ending the rules based world order would lead to a very significant need to increase military build up just about everywhere – and trade will suffer much more.
So while I acknowledge that you may have a point that there are populists arguing for peace with Russia on Putin’s terms none of them will see the fruits of their populist suggestions. As it is most often the case the populist policies do not actually work or solve any of the problems.
Mind you the ones that will object is far from restricted to the people who profit from the military build up – they are not likely to be objecting as they face an even more profitable future in that case – no it is most of the people in the areas of Europe that last time had to face Russian occupation.
So we need a big military buildup worldwide to defend America's right to dictate the rules, and if we don't invest in that bloodshed now then we'll need an even bigger military buildup worldwide later…?!
America telling everyone how it has to be is WHY we are in this mess with the only welcome option to make it all even worse. Autocracy must be vigorously opposed indeed.
No we already have the beginning of that worldwide military build up, because we have the sanctions to keep the current rules based world order.
I.e. a world where nations face massive sanctions for starting wars of territorial conquest – if that is no longer the case then we'll have more wars as war will more often be an attractive option.
No we are in this position because Putin started a war of conquest and has specifically stated that he wants to end the rules based world order.
On that we agree Russia and China being good examples of autocracies – the US much less so.
Is there any rule against overthrowing Ukraine's democratically elected president to force them into the EU/western orbit? Where are the massive sanctions to force the US to follow the rules?
if the US moral high ground is an inch higher, that does not entitle US to start WWIII to liberate Russians and Chinese from their government. That's their job, IF they chose it.
No there is actually not, so far the most that we could get the great powers to agree on were that what we executed German leaders for planning and executing an aggressive war of territorial conquest is also illegal according to international law.
No one is forcing them in that direction EU actually refused them as close a deal as were first proposed – serving to prove that no such plan were ever in place.
The US is following the rules – they have not annexed any territory as far as I know.
But yes we have only limited ability to sanction them should they start.
There has not been any such initiative from the US – there simply is no case for the US trying this.
There is not the human resources for even taking Iran and they were considering that.
wow you parse what's following the rules in a weird way. Democracy is somehow sacred and makes us special but we can destroy it whenever that's more convenient, just like in autocracies that maintain some pretense of elections. Massive advanced arms transfers, propping up dictators, and starting proxy wars are perfectly legit and unaggressive as long as lines on a map don't get changed, and then it's beyond the pale. I guess you'd be fine with Russia doing massive bloodshed and meddling to dominate others if they'd just do it in a more American way.
No just in the way the rules are written.
It is unfortunate, but the major powers could never agree to stronger limits to them exercising their power.
Neither the Soviet Union, Russia nor the US have agreed the more limiting rules of the international court (ICJ).
Yes that is in general the state of affairs.
I'm not OK with the US doing it so why should I be OK with the Russians doing it?
The Russians have been doing it too just to be clear on the state of affairs.
And it was perfectly fine if Putin could have organized a take over of power in Ukraine as what happened late 2013 to early 2014.
Only he could not as he simply did not have local support for such a move.
It will but the result will be every time worse for him than a previous result.
Someone is crying now… Where is the pacifier…!
Once again, young men die for old men's arguments.
He can save Ukraine today by accepting Russia's latest offer. But he's just a puppet of our CIA, so all of Ukraine will be lost, and saved.
What comes out of Zelensky's orifice is complete drivel and drool. Completely worthless.
Seems like Z is blinking? But one wonders why he needs "months" to come up with a more realistic plan than the one that was rejected by most of the world in Switzerland, and that is a complete non-starter for the Russians.
"Now we need to develop a detailed plan of detailed steps to address all the crises that Putin's war has brought to our land. We have to draw up this plan within months, we don't have much time. We have a lot of wounded, killed both military and civilians. So we do not want this war to last for years. Therefore, we have to prepare this plan and put it on the negotiating table at the second Peace Summit," Zelensky said.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3879475-zelensky-we-must-prepare-action-plan-for-second-peace-summit-in-few-months.html
Maybe he doesn't want to seem too desperate?