The Russian Defense Ministry said early Monday that Ukraine began a “large-scale offensive” by launching attacks along five sections of the frontlines in the eastern Donbas region.
According to RT, the ministry said the offensive began early Sunday, and the Ukrainian forces were unsuccessful. “The enemy’s goal was to breach our defenses in what they assumed was the most vulnerable section of the frontline,” the ministry said in a statement.
“The enemy has failed to reach its goals and was unsuccessful,” the statement added. The ministry claimed that Ukraine lost 250 soldiers, 16 tanks, three infantry vehicles, and 21 armored vehicles, but the numbers aren’t confirmed.
The statement from the Russian Defense Ministry comes after much anticipation of Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive.
NATO-trained soldiers are expected to lead Kyiv’s offensive operations, as the Ukrainian war effort is entirely reliant on US and NATO support. The Wall Street Journal reported that Ukraine was sending untrained, poor men into the Bakhmut meatgrinder to preserve professional soldiers for the offensive.
While publicly, Biden administration officials are predicting Ukrainian success, leaked Pentagon documents that appeared on Discord and other media reports have shown the US does not think Kyiv can regain much territory.
Russia has lost the war. It doesn’t matter anymore who wins on the battlefield. In an asymmetric war the invader needs to conquer, occupy and pacify. But the indigenous defender only needs to survive and resist. As long as the Ukrainians continue to resist, they will eventually prevail. This is a counter intuitive concept, but it is true.
The hearts and minds issue in Ukraine was decided over a year ago. Even if the Russians destroy the Ukrainian army (which they are failing miserably at), the Ukrainian people will continue to resist and Russia will be an occupying power permanently.
Prizozhin has called for a total mobilization and martial law throughout Russia. Russia has already imposed martial law in occupied Ukraine except for Crimea. Medvedev predicts that the war will last decades. Continuing the war will eventually lead to political instability in Russia.
Polls show Russian support for the war almost as high as American support for the Afghan War and not much higher than American support for the Vietnam war in the early years of those conflicts. Russian support for the war will decline as the war drags on.
It is a fundamental mistake to see this as a war between the Russian and Ukrainian militaries, Nor is this a war between Russia and US/NATO. This is a war between Russian imperialism and the Ukrainian people. Russia failed to break the Ukrainian will to resist. Like in Vietnam, Afghanistan or Algeria, the ultimate outcome is a foregone conclusion. What is uncertain is how long it will take for there to be political change leading to a pragmatic leadership in Russia that will end the war.
I believe the Chinese understand the dynamics of asymmetric war. When the time is right (probably in the Fall) I expect China to actively pursue peace negotiations aimed at saving Russia’s face but securing a Russian withdrawal. China does not want to see Russia humiliated. But the Chinese know Putin’s war in unwinnable.
I think your logic makes sense just about anywhere but not when Russia is concerned. Check other non-Western media., quite opposite conclusions. It is because Indian, Chinese, Arab, Turkiye media understands Russia much better.
Russia is accomplishing goals of essentially disarmament, without provoking West reaction. One analysis calls Rusdian strategy “moth flames” or “fly trap”, because it creates conditions to simuntaneously attract Ukrainian charges, and destroying them systemstically,
When the counteroffensive starts, Russian actions will be again measured. But itvwill continue to hit sealons storage and assembly centers. Wheather any mire visible Russian offensive takes place emwill depend on many factors. The most important — assesment of Ukrainian capabilities, Weapons may be coming into Ukkraine for the forseiable future, but manpower is getting critical. Contrary to our media coverage, Zelenski is nit just unpolular. He is hated by a grat percentage of pooulation. Some of volunteers being trained umun UK sern to be Ukrainian recugees in UK that have received strong himt to volunteer. These are people who left the country to avoid going to war.
At some point this weakness will kead to collapse. Accirding to Asian sources Russia has several advantages over NATO. First is air defense,. Then electronic warfare. artillery and supersonic missiles. Add to this new type radar accuracy not affected by weather. Resuly is not Russian problem. NATO cannot count on Poland or other East Europeans to go to war. The only reason all jouned EU and NATO is to overcome the lack of technological provress and free market competition to revive moribund economy. Askung them to sacrifice life for what it amounts is Ukrainian-Russian clash over Soviet inheritance.
By the way — most non-Western media are callung already NATO losing this one. Russia not being crushed economically and having to withdraw due to internal problems — means NATO lost.
This is why this conflict will last, and Ukrainians will be propoed up no matter what. And Russia intends to enable this as long as possible. Russian new forces are sitting in Belarus and in Russua eastern regions. New reinforcements came to protect Southern flanks.
And it is waiting game. Now that anticipated counter-offensive started, things may get clearer.
My point is US will lose and NATO may lose. But Ukraine will win. Prizoghin is publicly accusing the high command of treason. If that is public, what is going on behind the scenes? Putin’s administration charged four hypersonic missile scientists with high treason! And Putin keeps firing his top generals. Whatever Russia’s plan for the Ukraine is or was, it doesn’t seem to be working.
Sanctions have not been that effective. But my point is that if the Ukrainian people continue to resist, that resistance will precipitate a political crisis that will lead Russia to end the war
As for Zelensky, he has been effective as a front man for the Ukrainian resistance. But the resistance does not depend on Zelensky any more than it depends on US/NATO aid or the Ukrainian army.
The global south opposes sanctions and the US/G7 world financial system. But that doesn’t mean they support Russia’s aggression (except for Iran and a few Russian allies).
I’ve made my prediction. You have made yours. Time will tell who is right.
Up until now, Russia has restrained not leveling western Ukraine into the Stone Age. But this may happen if Russia sees no future opportunity for a ceasefire as you clearly pointed out that support for this war will dwindle if it drags on.
Putin won’t level sh!t because he enjoys his wealth too much and doesn’t want to get himself leveled
And Zelinsky is not enjoying his wealth and his ultimate acting role?
Correct. He is too busy leading his country’s fight from freedom.
BTW, His wealth was earned. Not like trillionare Putin who has been stealing billion from his people for decades.
Hate that.
Earned!?!?
Good one and in that context you are correct that he and his cronies are busy earning even more with resale of NATO supplied weaponry.
But you are incorrect in both regards with your statement that he’s leading the fight to freedom.
The US is leading and it’s not to freedom, but rather, ruin. Let’s just say Zelinsky is doing a great job allowing Ukraine to be leveled. And then, one of these days, his successor will have the unfortunate role of again being led with a US rebuild plan.
By then Zelinsky will be counting his money in the Caribbean.
Your analysis continues to miss a basic fact. You assume that the areas in Eastern Ukraine are Ukrainian. They aren’t. They are Russian speaking, historically and culturally Russian. Even those that identify as being Ukrainian mostly don’t even speak the Ukrainian language.
The regime in Kiev is a puppet of the US and NATO. Without the massive support of that regime, the civil war in Ukraine would end in a couple of weeks. That regime sought to “cleanse” the Eastern and Southern parts what was Ukraine in 2014. So….. the indigenous people you refer to are, with the help of Russia, throwing off the oppression of the Kiev puppet government.
Hopefully, the US and Western alliance will find it counterproductive to engage in their regime change and color revolution tactics when this conflict ends. These policies have caused massive death and destruction.
Being “Russian speaking, historically and culturally Russian” doesn’t automagically translate into loyalty to whichever regime happens to be occupying the Kremlin and claiming to be “Russia” at any given moment.
Didn’t Zelensky grow up speaking Russian?
I’m pretty sure he “proves” your point.
He speaks good Soviet, his unbridled hostility to God and liberty is a dead giveaway.
It does make the situation different from Viet Nam and Afghanistan.
i recall that the Russian speaking regions literally appealed to Russia for help from Ukraine so i will assume that those regions at least will indeed automagically translate into loyalty to Russia
Dirt neither speaks nor has loyalties.
Some people claiming to represent all the people who live in those regions appealed to Russia for help from Ukraine.
Whether they were really very representative of the people in their regions is an interesting question.
And an open one.
A question closed in Debaltseve. Jan. 20, 2015.
The post liberation plebiscites are a good indicator of cultural and political loyalty.
Maybe so. But we won’t know the results of such plebiscites until and unless they’re held, which won’t happen until the areas in question are liberated.
Referendum we’re held. All doubts dispelled. It’s RUSSIA!
A nation once again.
We only recognize elections when we win them.
Or in Tommy Knappkin’s case, when we wank them!
Yes, all doubts were dispelled that when an army marches into a place, points guns at the populace, and tells them “check this box on this ‘ballot,'” most people will do so.
Whether that constitutes a “referendum” or “plebiscite” isn’t doubtful. It’s no more a “referendum” or “plebiscite” than masturbation is copulation.
What is beyond doubt is the Russian people don’t need the seal of approval from their sworn enemies in any of their internal affairs.
Correct, it doesn’t. On the other hand, a regime that has engaged in repression of a population based on that population’s language and culture isn’t “automagically” going to support a regime and its successor regimes that instituted that ethnic cleansing. Stockholm syndrome on a massive scale isn’t likely.
Fact: The USA and NATO staged and supported a coup against the elected government of Ukraine. That led to a civil war which was inflamed by the coup government and and successor government’s attempts to Ukrainize populations within the borders claimed by that regime. Those efforts were encouraged by the US and Western leaders. BTW, this wasn’t just the Russian speaking populations of Ukraine. Other ethnic populations were subject to the same cleansing efforts.
Fact: In previous elections, the Eastern and Southern parts of
Ukraine consistently voted against candidates that campaigned for an ethnically pure Ukraine.
Fact: the US and NATO broke Ukraine with their intervention into the internal affairs of the Ukrainian state. That was done to target Russia as the primary objective.
The real villains here are the Western leaders and their Kiev puppets. Ukraine’s population are victims. So are the Russians. Ultimately so are the populations of Europe which have self sanctioned themselves and the people of the USA that are footing the bill.
“The real villains here are the western leaders, their Kiev puppets, and the Russian leaders.”
Fixed, no charge.
If you think that Putin et al. are an iota less corrupt, calculating, opportunistic, violent, and evil than their counterparts, that thing you’re doing that you think is thinking isn’t.
Putin is no saint. But in the context of his counterparts in Western countries?…..
I dispute your claims. You made the claim : make your argument. Or is it just more just more bombastic rhetoric? Backed by …. nothing. ” If you think that Putin et al. are an iota less corrupt, calculating, opportunistic, violent, and evil than their counterparts, that thing you’re doing that you think is thinking isn’t.”.
I write several thousand words a week. Some of those words are claims, some are arguments, most are opinions, usually including supporting facts.
You’re free to agree with me or not. I don’t have any special obligation to focus my attention on your demands specifically.
There you go again. You made a claim about me. I said back it up. You viewed that as a demand. Yawn.
Positing an “if” is kind of the opposite of making a claim.
It is when framed in the manner you have.
Regarding Prizoghin’s antics and outbursts, I think it’s important to cut through the fog and acknowledge that he’s portraying himself as renegade military commander constantly shouting that Wagner is not getting the support they need, they’re out of ammo, and so on.
This is a ruse. Propaganda play and scripted from Day 1.
Wow, what a great propaganda technique.
So, are you suggesting that Prizoghin’s statements should be taken at face value and discredit any notion of the way he’s portraying his unhappiness with the Russian military as a ruse? Please.
Guess we’ll have to wait and see.
At least this propaganda strategy is marginally better than the ridiculous narratives associated with Nordstream, Ukrainian air defense efficacy, the looming ‘counteroffensive’, casualty counts 10:1 in favour of Ukraine and so on.
Well, I’m sure “non-Western” media has no bias. The Ukrainians are already advancing in certain areas while still only conducting a Recon-In-Force.
I can see what’s going on and decide to call balls-and-strikes myself. Many here are deluding themselves by sticking to their own talking-points of “Western media bias”.
Warfighting can’t rely on bad information. However, many here find comfort in it.
Well, I’m sure “non-Western” media has no bias. The Ukrainians are already advancing in certain areas while still only conducting a Recon-In-Force.
I can see what’s going on and decide to call balls-and-strikes myself. Many here are deluding themselves by sticking to their own talking-points of “Western media bias”.
Warfighting can’t rely on bad information. However, many here find comfort in it.
But the indigenous defender only needs to survive and resist.
And that’s just what Donbass did. Now that the cavalry has arrived the conflict has been settled. Ordinarily that would mean Ukraine surrendering but the West wants martyrs not survivors.
oh SNAP
Months back you said Russia can’t win on the battlefield but now you are saying it doesn’t matter.
It sounds like you are coping.
Or copping out.
I predicted the defeat of the Ukrainian conventional army over a year ago. I also predicted that in the long run the Ukrainian resistance will defeat the Russian invasion. I am gratified that the Ukrainian army has performed beyond everyone’s expectations.In the long run, Ukraine’s victory will be determined by hearts and minds, not force of arms. I have always said that.
The New Yorker
The working class are sent untrained to their deaths while the rich dodge the draft.
Zelensky signed legislation that raised the maximum punishment for desertion to twelve years in prison.
No worries, Ukraine won’t be around in 12 months let alone 12 years.
Last February it was “no worries, Ukraine won’t be around in 12 days let alone 12 weeks.”
Last March they might have had a chance… WTG Joe!
Yes, last March the Russians had a chance to get things done instead of getting bogged down in a fiasco.
But they blew that chance.
You seem awful eager to see Ukraine boys die at an accelerated rate. Maybe the Russians prefer they surrender and live in peace even if it means risking the safety and well being of their own troops.
I’m not eager to see anyone die, period.
Not having a side in this gang brawl just means that, unlike you, I don’t have to constantly ignore/deny reality to convince myself “my” team is “winning.”
No, all you have to ignore is the ever growing pile of dead Ukrainians on the pyre.
It would be more precise to say that in hindsight the fact that the Russians didn’t conquer, occupy and pacify Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the first two months of the war is proof that they couldn’t. It took me about two months to realize where Ukrainian hearts and minds stood. The resistance is real. It energizes the army, The Ukrainian army may or may not hold up. But even if the US/NATO aid drys up the Russians can’t overcome the indigenous resistance. At best the Russians will be committed to a permanent war of occupation until they decide to leave Ukraine, like the US in Afghanistan.
In an asymmetric war of national resistance the calendar is more important then the battlefield or the map. Fifteen months after the invasion, if the indigenous defender is still resisting effectively, then the invasion failed.
For “indigenous” defenders there are sure a whole lot of foreigners in the ranks. Well, maybe not as many as there were a week ago but a lot more than there will be a week from now.
Sounds familiar.
“The hearts and minds issue in Ukraine was decided over a year ago. Even
if the Russians destroy the Ukrainian army (which they are failing
miserably at), the Ukrainian people will continue to resist and Russia
will be an occupying power permanently.”
You’re an idiot.
Notice a pattern folks?
Yes, the seeming absurdity of these Washington pronouncements makes one fear the existence of a secret protocol in the plan of support for the Ukra-Nazis providing the last veil be stripped off to reveal the arrival of the ‘cavalry’ in the form of a massive US air assault.
Without boots on the ground air strikes won’t be a decisive but it will be escalatory… And how!
Ukraine proxies are the sacrificial boots.
Empty boots under empty rifles under empty helmets in an empty field.
Taps playing in the background.
Okay, … maybe Poles, Lithuanians, Finns, …. But even when the last Ukrainian male 16-60 is dead, the Russians won’t be allowed victory. When Biden says “Ukraine has our support, today, tomorrow, for as long as it takes.” he’s using Neocon-ese for as many willing proxies “as it takes”. Neocon thinking should by now be clear to everyone. If Russia or China want “a place in the sun”, they’re going to have to fight for it. Which means having to defeat Washington.
I’ll hold their beer. 🍻
More cannon fodder for the Russians to exterminate.
This is what we gave been promised so let’s see how well that analysis from a few months ago holds.
How well did they do when analyzing where Ukrainian’s military would be today and if the politicians running the show instead of their military would make it work?
Will General Victoria and her army push Putin out?
Will a break in the lines be a forerunner of a collapse or just a small 3 front battle that may end very ugly with a cut off of a withdrawal route?
More importantly, if this does not work in a significant manner; does everything hold together on a promise of “next time” next year?
The War We’re Finally Allowed to See
After 15 months of conflict, The New Yorker’s reportage by Luke Mogelson and photographer Maxim Dondyuk shows us the war in Ukraine that the propaganda machine has been concealing.
https://consortiumnews.com/2023/06/01/patrick-lawrence-the-war-were-finally-allowed-to-see/
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/05/29/two-weeks-at-the-front-in-ukraine
Ukraine tried to defeat the “meat grinder” by offering up the untrained and helpless, from old men and young boys. They were people who did not matter to the military professionals who plan offensives with fancy training on fancy weapons.
This may have been partly successful. Either way, it was a deliberate choice supported by the American advisers who wanted to protect a trained reserve for the big offensive of which they still dream.
Collateral damage with a twist.
Maybe the Russians should first concentrate on getting rid of the Russian Volunteer Corps that’s occupying the area around Belgorod?
They can regain some territories paying a great price for it. Then they will keep it paying even a greater price. Russians bombs and shells will fall on their heads in huge numbers anyway. They can’t match it. When Ukrainian/NATO army is exhausted, Russians will come and take it back.
So far this “counter-counter-offensive” has been pitiful. Pentagon
launched about 20 tanks and about 200 in infantry in Zaporozhye region and allied forces popped them like flies.
“The ministry claimed that Ukraine lost 250 soldiers, 16 tanks, three infantry vehicles, and 21 armored vehicles, but the numbers aren’t confirmed.”
The Kremlin at it again. Ukraine is conducting probing runs and reconnaissance with a few troops and couple tanks here and there. Yes, they lost couple vehicles and 1-2 tanks in one of their incursions with a few casualties. That’s legit but therir numbers, WTF?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-thwarts-another-major-220903285.html
This not the main effort yet but they think it’s already ongoing. Ok.
BTW, Prigozhin troops got ambushed by their own people on their way out. Confirmed. I called that out few weeks back and was called a clown. Well, this clown knows a thing or two.
So far, NATO countries have promised 77 tanks. But 31 of those are Abrams Tanks promised by the US, and they may take a while to deliver. So, let’s say that 45 tanks have actually been delivered.
In the opening 24 hours of the counteroffensive, Ukraine has already lost 16 tanks… about a third of the additional tanks promised.
Granted, the tanks that were lost were not as good as that tanks promised. But, if Ukraine does as well over the next 2 days as they did yesterday, all of the tanks promised will have to be put into service to make up for those lost.
Now that’s what I call “just-in-time” inventory control!
Yeah, the Pentagon have no intention in helping Ukraine win. They just want to see more casualties. Preferably on both sides but they will settle for Ukrainians and Polish. That’s why they slow-drip with this so-called “support”
Yes, U.S. objectives are about using Ukraine to inflict losses on Russia, rather than helping Ukraine achieve any sort of victory.
As the war drags on, Ukrainians will become increasingly frustrated and radicalized. They will try to attack Russian territory. Ukrainians will become disenchanted with their leadership and with U.S. sponsorship.
I think Ukrainians will start attacking their Pentagon taskmasters. It’s already starting.
Update. Another day has passed. Russia is now reporting that 28 tanks, including 8 provided by NATO last month, were lost. It’s possible that these are in addition to the 16 mentioned earlier. Russia is also reporting that Ukraine lost 1500 soldiers and 100 armored vehicles during the clashes in this area.
russia is still laughing at the spit balls ukraine sent.